ETA Hmmmm

[-=BTC=-PROFESSOR]

With each run of the ETA its showing more precep......and if u look at my map i said from fridaynight to saturday..........


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_048l.gif

[FLguy]

either way....your northeast quadrant will bust.

[JCT777]

Looks like extreme eastern NC could get a few inches of snow.

[-=BTC=-PROFESSOR]

either way....your northeast quadrant will bust.

maybe all depends on how much wraparound mosture we can get.....and how close it stays to coast.we are looking at maybe 20-1 or 30-1 ratios most of nc is going to get more than 1-2in like lots of people are saying......

[Guest]

problem is that its gonna take a while to saturate with such dry air in place. For these areas im sticking to what i said in my snowfall map last night. My area and others out this way from about i70 north looks to be busting for right now anyways.

[-=BTC=-PROFESSOR]

If one looks at this loop, look off the SC ad GA coast the clouds are moving south west thats becouse theres a high press over myrtle beach and as u know air around high moves clock wise....pushing that low further north hence more precep........



http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... _loop.html

[FLguy]

Looks like extreme eastern NC could get a few inches of snow.

but NOT the kind of totals that he was projecting. Im sorry but there is not going to be 6-8" of snow falling in eastrern north carolina.

with the .25" of liquid that the ETA cranks out in areas which remain all snow...well be playing the ratios game. at a 10:1 ratio thats only 2.5" of of actual snow (but we must decide where the best UVV is in relation to the dendrite layer (-12 to -16C roughly) --- as when the best UVV appears to be co-located in that portion of the atmosphere...snow growth is maximized and higher ratios are acheived).

So IMO there should be a very large area of 1-3" (locally 4 in the favored upslope regions along the western side of the apps...or underneath CSI bands) across the southern mid atlantic north of the changeover line the only areas where his accumulations totals may even get close to being correct would be on the eastern outer banks and barrier islands.

remember also that the atmosphere will be VERY dry...so as the precipitation develops it will take awhile for it to saturate the column and get down to the surface...which could cut back on accumulations somewhat. this as a portion of the total QPF would go into saturating the column instead of falling to the surface and accumulating.

[Bane]

MOrehead City is calling for a possible 5-7" snowfall on the Outer Banks.

[Wannabewxman79]

I am not saying this is going to happen but this is the kind of situation we had when Central NC was socked back in Jan. 2000 with 25 inches of Snow. I was just seeing if anyone remembered that one and how they were calling for 1-3 inches up until that night. I am not saying this is happening just saying it looks somewhat like that storm.

[Anonymous]

I am not saying this is going to happen but this is the kind of situation we had when Central NC was socked back in Jan. 2000 with 25 inches of Snow. I was just seeing if anyone remembered that one and how they were calling for 1-3 inches up until that night. I am not saying this is happening just saying it looks somewhat like that storm.

If you are talking about the Jan 25 2000 storm, I remember forecasters were calling for nothing in N VA with that. Then a forecaster noticed the precip returns were moving NORTH, not EAST, and they started putting up warnings in VA. I recall that night, the night of Jan 24 very well. It was getting windy and it was kind of cold and I was awonderin' what was going on.

Well, the next morning we all knew!! We got 12 inches of snow here in Woodbridge.

One thing about the Mid Atlantic Region: In WINTER, when the pattern is prime for cold and snow, you can never really be too sure what it will do! That said, even though I am dying for snow, I still reiterate my prediction of anywhere from 2 to possibly as much as 17 flurries for N VA late tonight through tomorrow.



-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!