#7 Postby SnowWeatherMan » Thu Jan 08, 2004 11:28 am
Yes I agree, the GFS is not exactly reliable in the 5-7 day range, but I think many of us are forgetting something. Some models have certain strengths with certain patterns. The GFS handles the PJ much better than the STJ. You throw a screaming PAC Jet in there and the GFS has major problems. In all honestly the GFS handled this arctic cold pretty darn well. Everyone wanted to dismiss it because of how cold it really was, well look at where we are now... DARN cold. Coldest temps in a few years.
The EC and UKMET have handles the pattern so far this winter quite well. Heck the EC was god on the Dec 5-6 storm, it practically had it nailed 4 days out with run to run consistency. Yet when it comes to the cold outbreak, it wasn't nearly as consistent and wanted to moderate the cold in a few days. Let's not forget that if every model could handle a storm from 7 days out and be exactly right, that art of meteorology wouldn't be nearly as fun and most of us wouldn't be on here discussing these things.
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