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my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros 
breeze wrote:It's still 68°F here, right now. Temps are supposed to drop
into the low 40°s by morning. We have a remote chance of
snow on Friday - right now, it's going to be a "dusting", if
any at all!
Jeb wrote:High was 74 today......down to 48, but folks, remember, our normal high is 43 degrees........
Bring it!!!!!!
SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is an attempt at wry humor folks, not sarcasm. Sarcasm is not what I am attempting here lol.
Jeb wrote:Jeb wrote:High was 74 today......down to 48, but folks, remember, our normal high is 43 degrees........
Bring it!!!!!!
SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm Ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No sarcasm intended here....................but the front we got today was no arctic front.
We had a high of 74 degrees which is about 31 degrees ABOVE normal.
We have cooled down to 48 so far. However, that only qualifies as a cool front, that's no arctic front. Our normal high is 43, and our normal low is 27 this time of year. Simple climo.
What we got today could be termed a cool front that cooled us down some twenty-eight degrees.........to levels still above normal for this time of year.
It's 48 degrees at 1030pm. If we extrapolate that to a high temperature, I'd say that with 48 degrees at 1030pm, we should have come down from a high of about 64, 65 degrees this afternoon. A high of 65 translates to late October/early November conditions.
So, behind this front we got today, we are basically well above normal, though admittedly cooler than we were earlier today.
Additionally, tomorrow we are progged to hit 62 degrees again for a high temperature. When I heard that I almost started to cry. I took a very sad jebwalk tonight.........it was about 50 degrees with a DP of 44 degrees, quite comfortable and I almost did not need my lightest paper-thin jacket.
This post is not meant to be sarcastic, and I am not denigrating anyone.
It was meant to be objective.
Just wanted to let everyone know what is actually going on here in northern VA tonight. It is in actuality a quite comfortable evening after frontal passage. It is certainly not cold, 48 degrees with a 7mph NE wind.
This is weather.com's forecast temps for Woodbridge VA:
Mon Jan 5 62/31 62 after a cold front in Jan is laughable. lol
Tue Jan 6 41/17 I'll take this, because of the 17 low.
Wed Jan 7 34/17 This is decent cold.
Thu Jan 8 35/12 This is decent cold.
Fri Jan 9 41/15 I'll take this, because of the 15 low.
Sat Jan 10 43/23 I'll take this, because of the 23 low.
Sun Jan 11 47/28 This is average but that 47 is a bit high for me.
Mon Jan 12 42/20 I can deal with 42; the 20 low is cool by me.
Tue Jan 13 36/17 I'll take this 36/17 range
In the past, (although I am well aware our climate is WARMING over time and it can't be helped, it is inevitable), I have noticed that arctic fronts bring us highs in the 20s, if not the teens!!!!!. Arctic fronts generally bring us highs in the 20s. Back in the 1980s, arctic fronts generally brought us highs in the low 20s for about 5 days to a week. Lows were in the teens and single digits above zero.
Now even if our recent highs had not been in the 60s and 70s, but had been in the 40s and 50s, an arctic front would be expected to bring us a few days of highs in the 20s or at least near 30. A period of cold in January in Woodbridge VA that is characterized by highs in the mid/upper 30s is NOT the result of Arctic Front cold advection. Highs in the mid/upper 30s are the result of a moderate cold front, NOT an arctic front. If this is so, what then of highs in the 40s? If a front brings highs in the 40s which are normal temperatures for Woodbridge VA in early January, then that cold advection must be from a normal, not arctic cold front.
Now we have had two days of highs in the 70s, and the day before that it hit the 60s. Those are departures of 30, 30 and 20 degrees above normal, respectively. The fact that this front that hit us today dropped us from 74 to 48 does in no way, shape or form mean that it is in fact an arctic front. It may have been a sharp cold front, but if that is what it was, after this sharp cold front hit us, in the wake of this sharp front, what we are left with is admittedly above-normal temperatures tonight. Tomorrow we will top out at 62 degrees. Some cold front lol
I am just trying to report what is actually happening here in Woodbridge VA and I am trying to be humorous, not sarcastic.
I am in no way, trying or attempting to denigrate or make fun of all or any of the forecasters, amateur or pro in any way. I am however poking fun at this sharp cold front lol.
Perhaps the models will soon trend upwards to come into consensus with this weather which in fact IS happening here in Woodbridge VA.
One more thing: IF we do actually get this arctic front, I do hope we at least get to enjoy 3 to 5 days of highs in at least the upper 20s (though I had my heart set on low 20s) and lows in the teens (though I had my heart set on single digits and perhaps a low near zero.....)
I'll keep everyone updated on this mysterious cold front. LOL!!
JEB
Stormsfury wrote:And technically speaking, I'm not surprised that the runs are coming in colder, ALhurricane has a good thread about the GFS MOS numbers coming down, due to the fact, that it mishandles the shallow nature of the arctic air.
SF
FLguy wrote:Stormsfury wrote:And technically speaking, I'm not surprised that the runs are coming in colder, ALhurricane has a good thread about the GFS MOS numbers coming down, due to the fact, that it mishandles the shallow nature of the arctic air.
SF
and because of that you will also notice the numbers from your local NWS offices come down even further over the next few days.
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros FLguy wrote:Stormsfury wrote:And technically speaking, I'm not surprised that the runs are coming in colder, ALhurricane has a good thread about the GFS MOS numbers coming down, due to the fact, that it mishandles the shallow nature of the arctic air.
SF
and because of that you will also notice the numbers from your local NWS offices come down even further over the next few days.
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