Winter to return with a POTENTIAL vengeance ...

Anonymous · #61 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 4:40 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:
Jeb wrote:
Chris the Weather Man wrote:Jeb, Why can't you pray for 4 feet of snow!

Okay I will begin praying for 4 feet of snow from one storm.

Thanks for the idea

SnowBlitzJEB

No Problem! You, know, you should visit the Lake Effect snow region, Near Buffalo, 7 feet of snow in 2001!

Talk about the sweet spot!!!! I can barely begin to imagine 7 FEET of snow!!! I would be digging snow for WEEKS!!! Hopefully it would keep drifting back over where I shoveled!!!

SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous · #62 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 4:45 pm

what about the pattern that set up the Blizzard of 96, can anyone detail it for me.

Stormsfury · #63 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 4:57 pm

1evans wrote:what about the pattern that set up the Blizzard of 96, can anyone detail it for me.

Well, I can't detail it, but I can show you ...

500mb Geo Heights

850mb temperatures

Anonymous · #64 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 5:01 pm

thanks, with that said, does this look somewhat the same of what we could be in for the 12 through the 14

Stormsfury · #65 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 5:36 pm

Ok, this just GOT VERY INTERESTING ... Wakefield, VA long term discussion this afternoon ...

CONTG W/ CHC POPS MON NGT SE HALF OF FA...ESP THRU MDNGT. COLDER
AMS FILTERS INTO RGN...W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO 30S/LWR 40S (THAT'S
JUST THE START). NOTICEABLY COLDER TUE...AND P-MSNY. HI TEMPS IN THE
40S. DRY/COLD WX XPCTD TUE NGT (TEMPS FALLING INTO TEENS/LWR 20S?)...
AND WED.

FOR XTNDD...THU-SUN...BROAD TROF ALOFT DOMINATES...AND DOESN'T FAVOR
STM DVLPMNT NR MDATLC RGN. NO RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WRT WK SYSTEMS
TRAVELING SE IN NWLY FLO (OUT OF CANADA)...GOING W/ P-MCLDY AND CONTD
COLD FOR NOW. UPCOMING PTRN HAS THE LUK OF JAN 2000...WHEN TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT WHICH/IF ANY SYSTEM WOULD BRING SGFNT PCPN WAS DIFFICULT
(EVENTUALLY ONE DID...WE'LL SEE IF THERE IS A REPEAT).

Anonymous · #66 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 5:50 pm

so they think that we could see something out of this upcoming storm?

Stormsfury · #67 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 5:53 pm

1evans wrote:so they think that we could see something out of this upcoming storm?

The January 2000 storm was NOT seen at all by the globals, and basically snuck up on EVERYONE including me until about 12 hours beforehand ... Of course, at this time, I wasn't on any messageboards and was with my ex-girlfriend that day before I went to work, knowing that the potential for the temperature to fall later towards freezing. But the Carolina Crusher caught many by surprise.

SF

Anonymous · #68 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 5:57 pm

I can't remember how much snow I got, what kind of snow did NJ get?

I REALLY hope that the Jan 00 storm repeats itself as they hint at.

Stormsfury · #69 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 6:12 pm

These are the reanalysis 500mb heights with the Carolina Crusher storm...I'll be adding these to my website page January 24th-25th, 2000 Carolina Crusher very shortly.

Stormsfury · #70 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 6:41 pm

And the 500mb Absolute Vorticity ... this really shows the evolution of the events that produced the surprise MECS on the 24th-25th of 2000...

Stormsfury · #71 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 8:33 pm

Tonight's EURO day 8-10 Average ...

EURO 3 day average Deep, Deep trough in the East ... and look out ...

#72 Postby **FLguy** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 8:52 pm

the EC would indicate a the establishment of the aleutian low which should translate to a strong +PNA pattern (ridge in the western part of north america) with blocking to the north of AK...cross polar flow...deep eastern US trough with the PV centered between BI and the north shore of hudsons bay. and sub-tropical trough east of hawaii.

this is all indicative of a VERY cold pattern for the great lakes and northeastern part of the country. also there is no ridge near spain to argue against the amplification of the EUS trough.

Notice also the block trying to come back from SCAND toward greenland which could set-up a -NAO by day 10.

Chris the Weather Man · #73 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 8:57 pm

Can History Repeat its self?? Ala "The Blizzard of 1996"? Can History Repeat its self?? Ala The Blizzard of 1996?! Potential!

Stormsfury · #74 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 8:59 pm

A modified version of the SCAND block (something I talked about in my discussion about a modified -NAO earlier today on my discussion...glad to see that for sure).

Extrapolating purely on the 3 day average, cross-polar flow with PLENTY OF Arctic Air to tap into the UP and East, and the potential remains for a MECS/SECS and one of the triggers to bring it down.

Things MAY get interesting AFTER DAY 10 with what appears to be an active SBJ that may ride a s/w into the confluent zone, and set up an overrunning scenario afterwards, but that's just too damn far to speculate at this point.

Mucho concerns in the MR.

SF

#75 Postby **FLguy** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 9:00 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Can History Repeat its self?? Ala "The Blizzard of 1996"? Can History Repeat its self?? Ala The Blizzard of 1996?! Potential!

yes its definately possible

Stormsfury · #76 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 9:05 pm

History has shown that things can be repeated ... and if it happened once before, it certainly can happen again ...

SF

#77 Postby **FLguy** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 9:18 pm

Stormsfury wrote:These are the reanalysis 500mb heights with the Carolina Crusher storm...I'll be adding these to my website page January 24th-25th, 2000 Carolina Crusher very shortly.

http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/WinterWe ... rusher.gif

here is also a very impressive satelite pic of the blizzard of 96:

Stormsfury · #78 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 9:20 pm

FLguy wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:These are the reanalysis 500mb heights with the Carolina Crusher storm...I'll be adding these to my website page January 24th-25th, 2000 Carolina Crusher very shortly.

http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/WinterWe ... rusher.gif

here is also a very impressive satelite pic of the blizzard of 96:

Wish I could have gotten a little bit of snow out of that... :lol:

#79 Postby **FLguy** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 9:20 pm

and the snowfall totals:

#80 Postby **FLguy** » Sun Jan 04, 2004 9:25 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
FLguy wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:These are the reanalysis 500mb heights with the Carolina Crusher storm...I'll be adding these to my website page January 24th-25th, 2000 Carolina Crusher very shortly.

http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/WinterWe ... rusher.gif

here is also a very impressive satelite pic of the blizzard of 96:

Wish I could have gotten a little bit of snow out of that...

thank thats bad...how about the anger that must run rampet down here in florida when these type of MECS events occur amongst the snow crows down here...

and heres those totals plotted:

and a satelite pic of snow on the ground across the mid-atlantic region:

Winter to return with a POTENTIAL vengeance ...

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