GFS MOS guidance trending down

[ALhurricane]

Just taking a quick look at some of the new MOS guidance this afternoon, temps are trending downward. I'll give two examples...

Where I am currently (Mobile, AL) is now pegged by the MOS to get down to 27 on Wednesday morning.

I am moving in the middle of the week to Memphis. Guidance has dropped 9 degrees from the previous run. Now it shows 14 for Wednesday morning.

I am sure guidance has cooled down elsewhere. Of course, definitely want to see what the next few guidance runs show, but it does make sense. It's hard for the GFS to effectively handle shallow arctic air masses several days in advance. This is definitely a shallow cold air mass considering the fact that front will clear the northern Gulf Coast with WSW flow at 500mb!

[Stormsfury]

In which, the standard general cold bias of the GFS doesn't apply in cases in which we're dealing with brutally cold arctic air ... thanks for the post.

SF

[ALhurricane]

Absolutely correct.

In this case, the cold air is there. The problem was that the GFS couldn't resolve the shallow nature of the cold air.

Glad to be back posting. It's been way too long.

[Stormsfury]

Absolutely correct.

In this case, the cold air is there. The problem was that the GFS couldn't resolve the shallow nature of the cold air.

Glad to be back posting. It's been way too long.

Good to see you back ...

[wrkh99]

Welcome back AL !!!

[ALhurricane]

Thanks WRKH!

In a few days, you'll have to carry on as the voice of South Alabama on the chat board. I am moving up to Memphis to take the Intern position at the NWS. It's certainly hard leaving the Mobile area.

I'll look toward you for accurate and reliable weather updates for the area