Winter to return with a POTENTIAL vengeance ...

[Stormsfury]

from what you see, I know it's 8 days out, but does this look like it could be bigger than last years Presidents Day Blizzard.

I live for major snow events in my area, when can I start to get excited about this, right now I think it might happen but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

The President's Day Storm, believe it or not, wasn't actually a BIG Low pressure per se (I think 1006 mb), but it was the prolonged event and the fact we had a Eastern Canadian 1050MB+ HIGH locked in and wedging down as well as the prolonged overrunning nature what was caused that storm to be so memorable ... IMHO, IF THE storm progs out as planned, I think this one will be BIGGER in terms of the low pressure system.

SF

[donsutherland1]

FLguy had an excellent writeup with regard to El Nino.

For what it's worth, the years in which I used to <b>outline</b> the evolution of the January pattern had, for the most part, above to much above normal snowfall in many parts of the East.

At mid to late January, I'll take a closer look to see whether things remain on track for such a February, as there's plenty of excitement pertaining to this month and, of course, examining whether things evolved as I had anticipated.

[Stormsfury]

FLguy had an excellent writeup with regard to El Nino.

For what it's worth, the years in which I used to <b>outline</b> the evolution of the January pattern had, for the most part, above to much above normal snowfall in many parts of the East.

At mid to late January, I'll take a closer look to see whether things remain on track for such a February, as there's plenty of excitement pertaining to this month and, of course, examining whether things evolved as I had anticipated.

That was a great writeup by FLguy, and your thread is a great writeup as well. And I Like that you included the 850mb temperatures for Charleston, SC ..

[Anonymous]

does anybody know when the wxrisk site is going to be updated?

[Stormsfury]

does anybody know when the wxrisk site is going to be updated?

I think DT did a brief update this morning ... with some new maps and such ... but I can't answer for DT and when he'll have a new update.

SF

[Anonymous]

I don't know it looks like this one is worth getting excited about, I'm dreaming of 2 feet+

[FLguy]

from what you see, I know it's 8 days out, but does this look like it could be bigger than last years Presidents Day Blizzard.

I live for major snow events in my area, when can I start to get excited about this, right now I think it might happen but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

The President's Day Storm, believe it or not, wasn't actually a BIG Low pressure per se (I think 1006 mb), but it was the prolonged event and the fact we had a Eastern Canadian 1050MB+ HIGH locked in and wedging down as well as the prolonged overrunning nature what was caused that storm to be so memorable ... IMHO, IF THE storm progs out as planned, I think this one will be BIGGER in terms of the low pressure system.

SF

the PDS2 storm was driven mainly by warm air advection (isentropic ascent) overrunning the cold air in place which caused precipitation to break out...it was not a strong dynamically driven system whatsoever. and the surface low (while along the east coast) never got below 1000mb.

So yes it was a VERY weak system which produced heavy amounts of precipitation because of the interaction between the high and the very deep gulf and atlantic moisture feed.

this possible SECS/MECS in the JAN 12-14 timeframe would me MUCH more dynamically driven...and thus the low pressure area its self should be MUCH stronger than what PDS2 ever was.

[sertorius]

Stormsfury:

I'm sorry to bother you-hope you're feeling better-I was just curious if this pattern we're heading into has any winter weather for the central plains-i.e eatsern Kansas and Northern Missouri area-I notice the GFS and Euro show something for us next weekend but my ability to read models is about as good as the chiefs in the playoffs the past 10 years-horrible-also, I've gotten excited so many times to see everything go to my North or South-I was just curious-we are supposed to warm up so much here later this week I fear our winter shots will be few and far between-thanks sooo much in advance

[Stormsfury]

The 12z UKMET goes towards the idea of a more suppressed storm track, even MORE interesting for the Southeastern States ... for the 9th/10th ... brings a 1010 mb low from the GOM, and off the Southeast coast ... this is the first system which is suppressed (and potentially interesting for the Southeast) ...

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury:

I'm sorry to bother you-hope you're feeling better-I was just curious if this pattern we're heading into has any winter weather for the central plains-i.e eatsern Kansas and Northern Missouri area-I notice the GFS and Euro show something for us next weekend but my ability to read models is about as good as the chiefs in the playoffs the past 10 years-horrible-also, I've gotten excited so many times to see everything go to my North or South-I was just curious-we are supposed to warm up so much here later this week I fear our winter shots will be few and far between-thanks sooo much in advance

Last night's EURO and it's associated warmup IMHO, was bunk ... however, I feel that you will warmup some, but will return to a much colder regime towards next weekend ...

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnh850t.html

[sertorius]

Thanks sooo much-I really appreciate your response-there is alot going on today across the US and more to come so I really appreciate you taking the time to respond-Hope you continue to feel better!!

[FLguy]

The 12z UKMET goes towards the idea of a more suppressed storm track, even MORE interesting for the Southeastern States ... for the 9th/10th ... brings a 1010 mb low from the GOM, and off the Southeast coast ... this is the first system which is suppressed (and potentially interesting for the Southeast) ...

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

Given the very supressed nature of the pattern...it does not appear (at least IMO) that the system will strengthen very much until well off the southeast coast. also judging by the UKMET the s/w its self will be rather weak...and given the strong PJ i dont think phasing will occur. So the system will only remain a weak entity until well offshore.

I would be MUCH more concerned with that system you see off the west coast at 144 hours as it comes through the PNA ridge.

[Stormsfury]

The 12z UKMET goes towards the idea of a more suppressed storm track, even MORE interesting for the Southeastern States ... for the 9th/10th ... brings a 1010 mb low from the GOM, and off the Southeast coast ... this is the first system which is suppressed (and potentially interesting for the Southeast) ...

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

Given the very supressed nature of the pattern...it does not appear (at least IMO) that the system will strengthen very much until well off the southeast coast. also judging by the UKMET the s/w its self will be rather weak...and given the strong PJ i dont think phasing will occur. So the system will only remain a weak entity until well offshore.

I would be MUCH more concerned with that system you see of the west coast at 144 hours as it comes through the ridge.

I agree ... the latest AFD's from CHS/CAE also reflect this ... but I already was confident that the first s/w wouldn't phase in that kind of flow progged, but COULD be a little teaser for the main course ... anyway, by this timeframe, it looks to be DAMN COLD ... CHS's prelim progs for Friday night are around 20º, with upper teens in the favored locations ... so it's a brutal slap in the face since we're near record highs today, and possibly tomorrow as well.

SF

[FLguy]

The 12z UKMET goes towards the idea of a more suppressed storm track, even MORE interesting for the Southeastern States ... for the 9th/10th ... brings a 1010 mb low from the GOM, and off the Southeast coast ... this is the first system which is suppressed (and potentially interesting for the Southeast) ...

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

Given the very supressed nature of the pattern...it does not appear (at least IMO) that the system will strengthen very much until well off the southeast coast. also judging by the UKMET the s/w its self will be rather weak...and given the strong PJ i dont think phasing will occur. So the system will only remain a weak entity until well offshore.

I would be MUCH more concerned with that system you see of the west coast at 144 hours as it comes through the ridge.

I agree ... the latest AFD's from CHS/CAE also reflect this ... but I already was confident that the first s/w wouldn't phase in that kind of flow progged, but COULD be a little teaser for the main course ... anyway, by this timeframe, it looks to be DAMN COLD ... CHS's prelim progs for Friday night are around 20º, with upper teens in the favored locations ... so it's a brutal slap in the face since we're near record highs today, and possibly tomorrow as well.

SF

but just because the system is not dynamically driven does not mean that it cant throw wintery precip up into the cold air to cause some problems. As weak as the low might be (around 1010mb while coming up out of the GOM) it will have plenty of deep moisture to work with.

[Anonymous]

Very nice analysis everyone------I must say I am looking forward to seeing this front go through the Mid Atlantic and cool things down, although it was 74 degrees this afternoon (A 74/50 T/D spread) and I must confess, I actually enjoyed that jebwalk-----very, very reminiscent of the jebwalks I took at OBX last October when we were there and the T/D spread there was 77/64. No sarcasm implied or intended------I actually enjoyed that jebwalk today.

Yeah it appears we are in for a major cool down, and I am all ears about next week!!

I am with you, 1evans-------I am very fervently praying for 36 inches of snow. The aftermath of such a storm would set up a truly historic jebwalk, and I would be digging snow for days and days and days-----My church has let me know that if we get a big snow, they are going to expect yours truly to dig them out-------and they know exactly where to find me.

All I can say is BRING IT. I'm ready!


SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

Especially if a decent CAD signature maintains itself as progged ... but it would take a decent surge of moisture to overcome evapo. cooling, and adiabatic processes in the meantime. But it's early yet, and who knows? The trend may become stronger as we near to the event ... and especially AFTER looking at the 12z GFS, I kinda like that depiction for the possibility of the GFS overdoing the PJ, but the cold bias IMHO doesn't apply as much as usual given the dense and brutally cold arctic air involved ...

SF

[Anonymous]

what I'm wondering is does this pattern that we will be going into this week and next suggest something that could be 2 feet or more, or in other words, in past years when there has been unseasonably warm air and then going into COLD, has there been major players?

[FLguy]

Especially if a decent CAD signature maintains itself as progged ... but it would take a decent surge of moisture to overcome evapo. cooling, and adiabatic processes in the meantime. But it's early yet, and who knows? The trend may become stronger as we near to the event ... and especially AFTER looking at the 12z GFS, I kinda like that depiction for the possibility of the GFS overdoing the PJ, but the cold bias IMHO doesn't apply as much as usual given the dense and brutally cold arctic air involved ...

SF

the biggest problems with the GFS output until we get MUCH cloer to the event will be its overdoing of the PJ and overamplifcation of the trough in the EUS which would force the model to depress the storm track much further to the south than what it may be...though still...given the set-up i dont think phasing can occur.

and yes the environemnt would be very dry...however is saturation is acheived...CSI is released and banded precipitation can develop (with a moist adiabatic lapse rate --- less than 6.00 C/km). that of course is going on the premise that the set-up for CSI induced banding is correct...which would require low positive or slightly negative absolute geostrophic vorticity (analyzed in cross-sections as areas where the slope of the theta-e surfaces is greater than the momentum surfaces and/or areas of negative EPV (equivalent potential vorticity).

but these are details that we should NOT be getting hung up on this early in the game...lets wait until we get within 84 hours before we discuss things like this.

[Stormsfury]

Exactly.

[FLguy]

what I'm wondering is does this pattern that we will be going into this week and next suggest something that could be 2 feet or more, or in other words, in past years when there has been unseasonably warm air and then going into COLD, has there been major players?

i think the January 2000 northeaster is your best example of a MECS for the mid-atlantic and southern portions of the northeast which followed a period of record and near record warmth.