Winter to return with a POTENTIAL vengeance ...

[Stormsfury]

Discussion on my website updated ... primarily the focus is on THE SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC POTENTIAL for wintry weather with the second system potentially being a BIG HIT in the 12th-14th timeframe ...
Very extensive graphics/maps ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com
(As usual go to My Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

SF

[Anonymous]

the system that udercuts the Pacific Jet, when would we see the storm enter the US?

[Stormsfury]

the system that udercuts the Pacific Jet, when would we see the storm enter the US?

I'll use two examples ... the 00z GFS (which this map is time-sensitive) ...



and the ECMWF 8-10 day 3 day average ... notice the kink in the heights in the Southwest States? That's the undercutting s/w depicted ...



SF

[Stephanie]

Well, it's good to see the other models climb on board as well! It's going to be an interesting week!

[Stormsfury]

Well, it's good to see the other models climb on board as well! It's going to be an interesting week!

The Ensembles (GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS) are on board as well as the 00z globals ...

The 00z globals are generally in agreement right now, I'd actually favor the UKMET (which I hardly ever do), but it generally does very well with suppressed systems. Once we get closer to the event, the CMC generally does very well with the Carolina QPF's (precip-rates) ...

Unfortunately I don't have access to the UKMET or ECMWF ensembles as they require BIG $$$ to view, and with both, cannot be posted/publicly used in any matter.

SF

[Anonymous]

Now, assuming that everything happens the way you say and we get a low off the coast and it goes north, what kind of magnitude are we looking at?

Also, in the past, when there has been warm periods and then bitter cold, have there been monster storms and does this look like it could be one.

[Stormsfury]

Now, assuming that everything happens the way you say and we get a low off the coast and it goes north, what kind of magnitude are we looking at?

Also, in the past, when there has been warm periods and then bitter cold, have there been monster storms and does this look like it could be one.

This is just pure speculation .. BUT the undercutting system would possibly PHASE with the placement of the low in prime condition for a MECS/SECS hit ... and the Canadian reflects the Potential ...

1006 mb low off the South Carolina coast, with a phase taking place and riding the system NE ... to a 978 mb low (and this is the first system) ... notice the second system behind it ... and on the 240 hour map ... NOTE THE 1055MB HIGH in Western Canada and a GOM low beginning to take shape ...





240 hour map


And this is just one scenario (but the ECMWF/GGEM seem to match somewhat with the potential ...)

[Anonymous]

looks good to me, lets just hope for 2-3 feet+

[donsutherland1]

Excellent discussion, SF.

I fully agree with respect to the potential and would not be overly concerned about the details just yet. The potential is good (from both the Euro 8-10-day average and ensembles, both of which are better guides than the operational GFS at that point in time).

[Stephanie]

What do the "ensembles" and "globals" do differently than the forecast models?

[Colin]

Stephanie, it won't really matter for us...mainly DC and south will be involved in these wintry events. Oh well.

Nice analysis BTW SF.

[Stormsfury]

What do the "ensembles" and "globals" do differently than the forecast models?

The ensembles are comprised of various members run on different resolutions and outputs will vary from the OP models, and those are blended to compromise an ensemble mean (which doesn't show the extreme events farther out in MR/LR due to taking account the average of extremes and the not so extremes). Ensemble forecasting is a totally different animal than taking account OP models (especially in the short term) ... although the challenge is much harder, the rewards are much greater (for me, the personal aspect to it).

Stephanie, it won't really matter for us...mainly DC and south will be involved in these wintry events. Oh well.

Nice analysis BTW SF.

Thanks, Colin, and I answered your question in your other thread ...

SF

[Anonymous]

That looks good to me----i dont 100% understand the models/details-but it looks good having the freeze line near the fl/ga line with precip on the gfs

[Stormsfury]

Just something else, I'd throw in ... this pattern or at least the setup reminds me a lot like February 16th-26th, 1989 when the SE ridge hung on and on, but finally was broken down ... Charleston, SC went from a record high of 87º (all-time February record high) to a snowstorm just one week later (0.9 at CHS, 4" in my location).

This is an overlay animation of February 16th-26th of the 850c Temperatures and 500mb Geo heights (line) ...


SF

[Stormsfury]

Check this out ... that is a BONAFIDE KW (Kelvin Wave) and this will have INTERESTING consequences regarding the Jan 12-14th timeframe and ALSO MAY induce the development of the progged El Niño for 2004 ...

Kelvin Wave - Near a boundary in a rotating system, a Kelvin wave propagates with wave crests perpendicular to the side wall and wave height greatest at the side wall to the right of an observer looking in the direction of wave propagation. The wave height decreases exponentially from the side wall with e-folding length scale equal to the Rossby deformation radius c/f, in which f is the Coriolis parameter and c is the phase speed of the wave in the along boundary direction. In the shallow water approximation the waves are non-dispersive with frequency \omega = +/- c k, in which k is the along boundary wavenumber and the phase speed c = (gH)^(1/2) with g the acceleration of gravity and H the mean fluid depth. Related to Kelvin waves in a channel are Poincare' waves.

1) throw in the mix the arctic air NOW currently infiltrating the US.
2) Increasing PAC storminess

Along with the MJO which is heading east (dry phase) ...

This image also CLEARLY shows the KW ..



More information about the MJO and Kelvin Waves can be found on my website located on this PAGE

The Kelvin wave COULD have reprecussions on what could finally be an El Niño taking shape in a couple of months or so ...

SF

[Anonymous]

what's all this information mean, could this seal the deal for an MECS?

[Stormsfury]

what's all this information mean, could this seal the deal for an MECS?

It makes the MECS threat even more attractive to say the least, cause we're talking about a potential westerly QBO burst ... the same kind of burst during the tropical season that adds fuel to the fire during the formation of tropical cyclones... can aid in the development of winter storms as well.

SF

[donsutherland1]

SF,

That's a breathtaking image. The Kelvin Wave is very impressive.

Also, if one throws in the idea of a rising QBO (probably above -5 for February)--transition from East to West phase--and the relationship between such a QBO and snowstorms (RNS and DT have commented on this in the past), the ingredients are looking good even for the longer-term (beyond January).

[Anonymous]

from what you see, I know it's 8 days out, but does this look like it could be bigger than last years Presidents Day Blizzard.

I live for major snow events in my area, when can I start to get excited about this, right now I think it might happen but I'm not going to get my hopes up.

[Stormsfury]

SF,

That's a breathtaking image. The Kelvin Wave is very impressive.

Also, if one throws in the idea of a rising QBO (probably above -5 for February)--transition from East to West phase--and the relationship between such a QBO and snowstorms (RNS and DT have commented on this in the past), the ingredients are looking good even for the longer-term (beyond January).

Yep, you bet ... FLguy also has posted in the El Niño thread as well about the transitionary phases. And I definitely agree with RNS, FLguy, DT in regards of the potentials AFTER January as well ... I expect that the QBO will be in a westerly phase sometime after February (maybe towards the latter half of February... still waiting on the Dec QBO numbers and such to be released) ...

SF