SNOW FOR THE EAST

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 10:27 am

I know its 7 days out, accuweather and TWC web site say snow for my region of the Northeast. Wxrisk says SECS/MECS, are models saying this might happen?

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 10:50 am

Ummm, I wouldn't put too much stock into it if AccuWeather and TWC are saying it, but if DT is, it may be something to watch.

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 10:56 am

I know I shouldn't put much stock into it, but Accuweather has been saying something like this since tuesday of last week. i have only used wxrisk for about a month, is it reliable?, they seem to of been right most of the time.

donsutherland1 · #4 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 11:19 am

Several quick points:

The January 9-10 system will not be a major player for the Northeast (NE) or northern Mid-Atlantic (MA). The one afterward will bear more attention.

Given the idea of a moist storm coming ashore on the West Coast aside from the disturbance that will bring some light snows to parts of the region 1/9-10 is something to watch. Bear in mind Drag's advice last winter--'never underestimate a good Southern Stream system.'

Interestingly enough, in one of the analog years for January that I had relied on to some extent with my December 23-24 discussions pertaining to the timing of the cold's arrival (1/3-5 was my estimate at the time) and evolution of the pattern (1/1-7 averages near normal in the northern MA/NE; 1/8-14 averages below normal with the storm track growing more suppressed as the pattern advances; 1/15-21 averages below to perhaps much below normal with respect to temperatures) had a big snowstorm for before the cold pattern broke. The other years had more modest snowfall from clipper-type systems.

February looked very good for snowfall from those years. With the QBO probably reaching a weak East phase enroute toward going West (probably by March), this is an idea that is quite attractive, but that's way too far ahead. DT and RNS have posted on the QBO and snowfall and these posts make good reference material.

Summary:

1) The January 9-10 system is not going to be a big storm for the MA and NE
2) The pattern after the January 10-11 weekend is exciting and holds some possibility for just such a system but let's see how things play out in the days ahead first (modeling and actual progress of the system)
3) To preempt future talk that "winter is over" once the cold pattern relaxes later this months, winter will be far from finished in the East and Midwest even after the evolving cold pattern eventually breaks (analogs, changes in the QBO, past snowfall after an early-season significant snowfall & very snowy December).

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 11:36 am

so what your saying is that we could have a major snow storm after the 9 and 10th?

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 11:38 am

also, 9-10 is not a major player, but could we get some snow, like 3 to 6?

#7 Postby **Stephanie** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 12:38 pm

If you look at the GFS for the 12th (12hour run) it shows that the potential precipitation for NJ/SE PA is over 1/2 inch.

Don is saying there's a POSSIBILITY. The GFS has been playing around with the thought of one since 14 days out - and a MAJOR one at that. Since then it has stopped spazzing out and became more reasonable, but it also lost the storm about 2 days ago. Medium range forecasts are difficult for the GFS to handle - if it can handle a forecast at all. At least it's still showing some kind of a storm so as Don and the others have been saying we have to wait and see.

donsutherland1 · #8 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 12:41 pm

1evans,

With regard to a better chance at a larger storm, a few days before mid-month looks like reasonable timing.

It's too soon for me to speculate on accumulations given that the 1/9-10 event is almost a week away. Right now, this does not look like a big storm (the kind that would be capable of dumping 6" or more over a large area).

The track and also development as the storm heads for the East will be important. Snow-water ratios could be high given the cold, so that could work to the advantage of some cities. On the other hand, the storm could be suppressed farther to the south.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 12:49 pm

I see, I live in North Ocean County and sometimes when the storms go to the south we get a good amount, so mabey?

About the 12-14 storm, it looks good to me

verycoolnin · #10 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:45 pm

The UTC 18 GFS run is sayin the friday/saturday storm will form off the coast of NC and just head out to sea, so the model is saying pretty much no predip for anyone... maybe a few rain/snow showers in eastern NC maybe a flurrie or two in SE Virginia. The GFS model always changes and I would in no way (for lack of phrases) count this storm out. I have to go to the 12 UTC GFS run for the next system (18 hasn't finished updating). GFS has the monday storm forming in the deep south and riding it's way up, the coast... but not enough to really hit the NE. GFS is saying only the midatlantic states will really get hit.

#11 Postby **FLguy** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 6:10 pm

verycoolnin wrote:The UTC 18 GFS run is sayin the friday/saturday storm will form off the coast of NC and just head out to sea, so the model is saying pretty much no predip for anyone... maybe a few rain/snow showers in eastern NC maybe a flurrie or two in SE Virginia. The GFS model always changes and I would in no way (for lack of phrases) count this storm out. I have to go to the 12 UTC GFS run for the next system (18 hasn't finished updating). GFS has the monday storm forming in the deep south and riding it's way up, the coast... but not enough to really hit the NE. GFS is saying only the midatlantic states will really get hit.

the problem with the operational GFS 18z run is the models handling of the Polar jet. and secondly i would view the GFS runs out past day 5 with EXTREME caution as the model has a tendency to bounce around quite a bit from run to run.

imagine it · #12 Postby **imagine it** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 6:10 pm

Where do you go to get UTC 18 GFS or a 30 day model? Accuweather is calling for sleet or and ice here where i live NC about monday or so. i know there is a place in noaa where you can go and get a 30 day snow cover but the last time i looked at it someone had given me the site and i forgot where it was. can you help me?
thks marilyn

#13 Postby **FLguy** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 6:15 pm

the following links are for the operational GFS as provided by NCEP...the operational GFS is run four times daily out to 384 hours or day 16:

00z operational GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

06z operational GFS run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

12z GFS operational run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

18z GFS operational run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

verycoolnin · #14 Postby **verycoolnin** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 6:20 pm

main NWS model site http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

imagine it · #15 Postby **imagine it** » Sat Jan 03, 2004 7:29 pm

Thank You both.

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