The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Weather

[JQ Public]

I can't wait to see some cold weather especially after the next two days which will be 70+!!!!

[Cumulonimbus]

Enjoy the colder weather...but at least Seattle is in on this one too. Temps are headed WAY down for our location and Bellingham on the Canadian border is already 20 with winds gusting to 46 mph. Temps in Seattle forecast to only be in upper 20's and it is snowing outside as I write this. Winds JUST shifted to northerly and temp beginning to fall so I will enjoy the next 48 hours as I LOVE cold weather and this is about as good as we will get.
Possible major snowstorm Monday but then much warmer and rain rain rain.

Alex

[donsutherland1]

Alex,

It looks like the pattern evolution is behaving pretty well as outlined. The cold will likely give way to warmer readings with the month finishing with temperatures 1-2 degrees above normal and above normal precipitation.

The latest GFS ensembles for the PNA also continue to highlight the warming that lies ahead starting next week.

<img src="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif">

[Valkhorn]

Warm in the west but cold in the East.

[donsutherland1]

Valkhorn,

You wrote, "Warm in the west but cold in the East."

That pretty much sums up the direction things are headed. The cold will be coming into the East in a big way with temperatures falling Monday afternoon/evening.

[donsutherland1]

On the morning of January 5, the initial idea of a significant cold frontal passage for January 3-5 <b>set forth</b> on December 24 is looking quite good.

As of 9 a.m., temperatures are running generally 15-25 degrees colder than yesterday's highs.

Albany: 27 (1/4 high of 46)
Boston: 32 (1/4 high of 50)
New York City: 37 (1/4 high of 58)
Philadelphia: 40 (1/4 high of 54)
Providence: 35 (1/4 high of 52)
Washington, DC: 44 (1/4 high of 72)

Moreover, temperatures will likely rise only a few degrees later today even as the precipitation comes to an end. A small accumulation of snow is even possible in Boston where the precipitation is now freezing rain.

With tomorrow and Wednesday expecting below and then much below normal readings, it appears that readings for the January 1-7 period will come out pretty close to normal (probably somewhat above in the Mid-Atlantic and near normal to somewhat below normal in the Northeast).

More importantly, another look at the current synoptic patterns suggests that the general ideas of a the January 8-14 period being colder than the January 1-7 period and then the January 15-21 period being even colder still looks good. Severe cold also looks possible down the proverbial road.

As for storms, the January 9-10 system will likely remain weak with development occurring only after it poses little significant threat. Hence, look for modest accumulations in the lower Mid-Atlantic and maybe a light accumulation from southern New England southward.

Ensembles, teleconnection indices, teleconnections, and model guidance continue to hold greater promise for the January 12-14 system.

[JCT777]

Kudos to you Don for making a good call regarding the turn to colder occuring between 1/3 and 1/5. And there does seem to be the potential for a storm in the 1/12-1/14 time frame.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, John.

Let's see how the rest of the pattern evolution goes.

And I'm certainly hoping that the single year of the four with much above normal snowfall for January, including a big storm, pans out. I do believe January will finish with normal to above normal monthly snowfall, but a big storm would be great.

[WEATHER53]

Don-this is a phenomental hit from back on 12/24. On 12/24 I went with cold returning around 1/10 so your call was much better. At 11am temps in mid atlantic range from 38 at Martinsburg to 74 at Norfolk, that is quite a spread even considering the distances, here in College Park, MD I am at 44 while just 20 miles to south temps are in mid to upper 50's.

[donsutherland1]

Weather53,

Thanks for the kind words. I'm quite happy about this "hit" given the uncertainty that prevailed at the time, though a combination of teleconnections and examination of historic patterns similar to the current one were in unusually strong consensus at the time.

Your call also looks to be good. From that far out, the general idea of a return to a colder pattern was probably more important than trying to time the shift. Now that transition is taking place.

I agree that the temperature contrast is remarkable. Look for a steep drop in temperatures to commence later in the day in Norfolk.