Tropical Update: 02 Jan

[senorpepr]

A few storms out there...

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT LINKS UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 06S WILL COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48 HOURS AND ACCELERATE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, NCEP GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN MORE POLEWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), WBAR AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. THE WBAR SOLUTION HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER RECURVING TC 08S TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2 AND 032100Z6.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (HETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF APIA, WESTERN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS SUPPORTING CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. STRONG EQUATORWARD WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF TC 07P ARE ALSO AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT. TC 07P IS BEGINNING TO TRANSISITION TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 07P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AMERICAN SAMOA AND INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH IN A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR), GFDN, WBAR, NCEP GFS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS HAVE MERGED INTO A CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6, 030900Z2, 031500Z9 AND 032100Z6.//

[cycloneye]

The tropics never go to sleep around the world and always there is a storm out there to track but of course we care the most for the atlantic ones.

[senorpepr]

No doubt... whenever the Atlantic goes into hibernation we can always look towards the other oceans.

[Anonymous]

Still, I never see an eye in any southern hemisphere storm!