SECS or MECS JAN 12-14 ????

[Guest]

Folks

fIRST THE LOW ON THE FRONT this sunday and Monday

My view is this: Your views may be different.

the euro has the low tracking the same way for at least 3 runs now as does the 00 12Z UKMET last several GFS ETA etc

Because this Low on the arctic front develops sooooo soon The SE ridge is Still too strong at 60 -72hrs so the Low IMO is NOT going to track AT or S of the Ohio river... and it will pass close to PIT and BGM

The cold air may get into central Ohio but the Low should drive the front back North OR at Least warm up aloft so that the snow at the start turns to Ice.... (FRZ RN OR IP)

PIT looks like Ice to rain....

IF the cold air gets into New england then this Low can bring some snow to ice to rain -- mainly OR all rain over NYC BOS PVD ... assuming the Low DOES tack over BGM and between ALB and POU

REMEMBER south of the low 850 temps are +12 C over VA so the warm air is extreme

a few days ago I made a post that to get the cold air depp into the eastern US after the cold front passage Jan 5 we needed a -NAO and or +PNA

IF we assume the 18z GFS the 12z GFS ensembles and the THURS day 7 and day 8-10 Mean are reasonably accurate
thoise tweo things are achieved.

The overall pattern is very promising for a major historic snowstorm over the eastern US--- equal to PD2 exceeding DEC 30 2002 (which for many was a miss) and equal to a Kocin event like March 93 or Jan 96


Now that I have your attention.... Lets be clear. First This MECS/ SECS threat is not in the BIG sense related to the synoptic question I have as to how long the overall COLD pattern lasts... there have been many winters which as a rule were fairly mild but had good snow events in them when the pattern turned cold

NEXT Yes 18Z GFS and the day 8-10 EURO is screaming Massive snowstorm Jan 12-14 time frame IF TAKEN VERBATIM



http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ecmwf_amer/PN_GZ_240_0500.html



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_216s.gif

That being said lets be careful.

First we are EXTRAPOLATING on MODEL at day 10!!!!!!!
on a s/w that Might or might not be there
and might or might not crash into the west coast
and might or might not hold together!!!

WE are also assuming that the 50/50 Low is text book perfect as shown k.... and that the NAO goes severely NEG

Then we have to assume the PNA forms !!!
Then there is the Pacific Jet which COULD Blow things apart faster than you can say A-10 warthog attack plane.

I will remain as even keel as I can for this event and see where it takes us...

[FLguy]

excellent discussion DT...

Remember also that a +PNA and -NAO produces the coldest possible pattern for the eastern part of the country given the cold air being available.

we had the set-up in DEC 01 (as you know) though the cold air was non-existant...and of course we had Olga which pumped tremendous amounts of heat into the polar regions.

the winter of 1982-83 (and to a degree 1992-93) was an example of a year in which the winter overall was mild in the northeast however all it took was that one time (the blizzard of 83 and the Superstorm in MAR 1993) to overshadow the trend of the winter.

[montrealboy]

[JCT777]

DT - it certainly looks like there is something to watch during that timeframe. Let's just hope it's not partly cloudy and 50 degrees.

[Anonymous]

Could this be the storm of the century. I know I posted several threads yesterday saying how "the winter is over" and other things like that. I would love to eat my words on this one

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, DT also has an outstanding and easy-to-understand page pertaining to snowstorm forecasting. It can be found at:

http://www.wxrisk.com/secs2.html

[Colin]

Oh boy, I'm so excited now! ...

[WoodstockWX]

ggem now keeps the cold air in the interior NE as well

[Anonymous]

woodstockWX, what does that map mean?, besides keeping the cold air into the interior NE, do you think that this could be a monster snow storm for us?

[WoodstockWX]

woodstockWX, what does that map mean?, besides keeping the cold air into the interior NE, do you think that this could be a monster snow storm for us?

monday?
nope

Could be some overrunning ice/snow for interior NE and NY monday morning, and even MOS has around a half inch of ice for Worcester overnight sunday into monday.

hopefully the GFS will come around soon.

[JCT777]

Quincy - I believe the confusion was caused when you posted maps for this upcoming Monday in a thread about a possible snowstorm for the Jan 12-14 time frame.

[FLguy]

ggem now keeps the cold air in the interior NE as well

http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/ ... 478_50.gif

with the surface low tracking over or just west of CLE (per the canadian global model solution above at 72hrs) ANY cold air damming would be scoured out ---- so after a SHORT period of FRZRA/IP...precipitation should go to rain.

[Steve H.]

No substantial snows for the I-95 corridor Mon/Tues, but look out 2nd week of January. pattern looks good for a couple of storms the next two weeks, particularly the 11th, and possibly a second one running the coast a few days after that. A major event is possible in this pattern. GEM is hosed a bit on its runs today as obs show. GFS shows cold, stormy in the east, but will the arctic boundary suppress snows south of metro Phil/NYC/Box?? TBD IMO. Too far out now to say, but looks like good potential. Warm here in Florida though.....near 80 in Melbourne

[JCT777]

No substantial snows for the I-95 corridor Mon/Tues, but look out 2nd week of January. pattern looks good for a couple of storms the next two weeks, particularly the 11th, and possibly a second one running the coast a few days after that. A major event is possible in this pattern. GEM is hosed a bit on its runs today as obs show. GFS shows cold, stormy in the east, but will the arctic boundary suppress snows south of metro Phil/NYC/Box?? TBD IMO. Too far out now to say, but looks like good potential. Warm here in Florida though.....near 80 in Melbourne

Nice analysis, Steve. Agreed about several potential storms in the Jan 10 through 15 time frame.