No Crap, Just The Truth

[Anonymous]

What is really going on with the Artic Air. I have read many reports that the eastern 2/3 of the nation will get cold and snowy and other where is it rainy and mild. Just the truth, what is really going to happen, some expert opinion please.

[Stormsfury]

If there was any definite answer to give, then we could give them ... but he only real constant we have to work with is the Screaming PAC JET, and that continues to be poorly read by model initialization.

As stated on another thread ... I do believe portions of the US will get cold with time ... but just don't expect any prolonged cold in the immediate short term and the MR anytime soon ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=22106

[Scott_inVA]

If there was any definite answer to give, then we could give them ... but he only real constant we have to work with is the Screaming PAC JET, and that continues to be poorly read by model initialization.

As stated on another thread ... I do believe portions of the US will get cold with time ... but just don't expect any prolonged cold in the immediate short term and the MR anytime soon ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=22106

All true IMO.

Previously discussed areas can/will get cold for relatively short period. Balance of CONUS won't.

Virtually no blocking (50/50 Low) and oft mentioned Mach 1 Pacific Jet are starting to make this look like 01-02. Late Dec-early Jan does not a winter make and this certainly can change. Then again, if the Polar Vort were to continually miss CONUS and rotate through the upper lats a couple more times, one would be looking at mid-Feb for a pattern change. could happen, don't think it will but right now there is nothing except bogus MR model data to suggest a change is pending.

Scott

[Stormsfury]

All true IMO.

Previously discussed areas can/will get cold for relatively short period. Balance of CONUS won't.

Virtually no blocking (50/50 Low) and oft mentioned Mach 1 Pacific Jet are starting to make this look like 01-02. Late Dec-early Jan does not a winter make and this certainly can change. Then again, if the Polar Vort were to continually miss CONUS and rotate through the upper lats a couple more times, one would be looking at mid-Feb for a pattern change. could happen, don't think it will but right now there is nothing except bogus MR model data to suggest a change is pending.

One of the reasons why I'm not heavily weighting the use of the operational models for details right now (except the ECMWF) and even it's having some difficulties with the PAC JET.

However, unlike 2001-2002, there's PLENTY of cold air to work with ... it's showing up all over Canada and will spread in Greenland, and in Alaska ... in the 2001-2002 period (FLguy on the other thread) highlighted this beautifully. I'm not as positive about Olga, but I don't discount that theory at all since IMHO it does make sense to a degree.

SF

[Scott_inVA]

One of the reasons why I'm not heavily weighting the use of the operational models for details right now (except the ECMWF) and even it's having some difficulties with the PAC JET.

However, unlike 2001-2002, there's PLENTY of cold air to work with ... it's showing up all over Canada and will spread in Greenland, and in Alaska ... in the 2001-2002 period (FLguy on the other thread) highlighted this beautifully. I'm not as positive about Olga, but I don't discount that theory at all since IMHO it does make sense to a degree.

SF

No disagreement here concerning arctic cold.

Blocking, trof location and +PNA signatures are netting similar results over CONUS.

I'm working on 03 stats for our wx station and note something with interest:

December's with below normal precip tend to precede January's with at or slightly above normal temperatures. December 03 here was 2.35" which is close to December 01 2.17", so we'll again test the theory.

Scott

[FLguy]

All true IMO.

Previously discussed areas can/will get cold for relatively short period. Balance of CONUS won't.

Virtually no blocking (50/50 Low) and oft mentioned Mach 1 Pacific Jet are starting to make this look like 01-02. Late Dec-early Jan does not a winter make and this certainly can change. Then again, if the Polar Vort were to continually miss CONUS and rotate through the upper lats a couple more times, one would be looking at mid-Feb for a pattern change. could happen, don't think it will but right now there is nothing except bogus MR model data to suggest a change is pending.

One of the reasons why I'm not heavily weighting the use of the operational models for details right now (except the ECMWF) and even it's having some difficulties with the PAC JET.

However, unlike 2001-2002, there's PLENTY of cold air to work with ... it's showing up all over Canada and will spread in Greenland, and in Alaska ... in the 2001-2002 period (FLguy on the other thread) highlighted this beautifully. I'm not as positive about Olga, but I don't discount that theory at all since IMHO it does make sense to a degree.

SF

Olga pumped so much heat northward into the polar regions that temperatures surged to 60F along the south shore of greenland as what was left of the circulation moved northeast.

So therefore as the trough became established in the EUS the cold air which SHOULD have been driven south given that type of blocking pattern was non-existant. departures from normal were very minimal across the northeastern part of the country until one got further to the south where just because of what is normal for that part of the country is so high...the cold which accomapnied the amplification was SOMEWHAT more impressive. i dont remember what the actual numbers were like.

[FLguy]

the EC/s biggest problem is with holdiong back STJ energy.

also in 2001/02...NH snowcover was not that impressive...so there was less in the way of resistence to the transport of warm which occured courtesy of Olga.

IF snowcover would have been more impressive...the airmass would have been colder even in spite of all that heat.