Tropical Cyclone 06S South Indian Ocean..."Darius"

[Typhoon_Willie]

Movement is southwest at this time...


WTXS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (DARIUS) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- NEAR 14.4S9 59.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 59.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.8S4 58.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 16.8S5 57.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 17.6S4 57.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 18.6S5 56.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 59.6E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (DARIUS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
301730Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. TC
06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DECENT OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO EXIST IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, WBAR, AND THE UKMET (EGRR)
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 AND 312100Z7.//

NNNN

[Typhoon_Willie]

piece of land to exprience landfall from a tropical cyclone in 2004! Darius looks to be at hurricane strength when it goes over the island in about 48 hours.