Days 11-13 GFS

R0bb0871 · #1 Postby **R0bb0871** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:29 am

Any thoughts?

IndianaWx · #2 Postby **IndianaWx** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:53 am

Yeah......

DREAM ON!

WEATHER53 · #3 Postby **WEATHER53** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 1:28 am

With the temps that are supposed to be in existence at the time DC would have 2-3 feet of snow.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 1:30 am

WEATHER53 wrote:With the temps that are supposed to be in existence at the time DC would have 2-3 feet of snow.

Wooooooo---Hooooooo!!!!!

BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Snow Blitz JEB

#5 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 7:45 am

As usual- it seems a bit overdone. Look for some continuity among models. We are 10 days out. 10 days ago it looked as if New Years Eve would be a monster storm. Temps look to be in place, precip is the question. It may just be bone cold and dry. I am with you Jeb, bring it on, 63 degrees yesterday was crazy. Did you really see a snow pile? It may have been one of those fake ones they put up around the Santa display there in the mall.

Colin · #6 Postby **Colin** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 9:56 am

It's really sad to see people get so excited, just to have it not happen.

It'd be nice though.

#7 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 10:05 am

Holy Cr*p!!!

Ain't going to happen though - at least not like that. Whatever the GFS stirs up at this poing, it's usually half as extreme if and when it actually happens.

#8 Postby **FLguy** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 10:10 am

Stephanie wrote::shocked!: Holy Cr*p!!!

Ain't going to happen though - at least not like that. Whatever the GFS stirs up at this poing, it's usually half as extreme if and when it actually happens.

The GFS is just letting us know that there MAY be something up in that time frame...exactly what is un-determined. Its NOT to be taken seriously...especially considering that it is the operational model. I havent seen the ensembels yet...so Im not sure how much (if any) support the there is for the operational run.

#9 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:37 pm

You guys are crackng me up with your avatars!!!

Here's 12 days out - GFS;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

#10 Postby **FLguy** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:55 pm

Stephanie wrote:You guys are crackng me up with your avatars!!!

Here's 12 days out - GFS;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

If nothing else...its nice to see consistency in the GFS. It has been indicating an event in that time frame for quite a while now...though it remains to be seen whether or not the pattern will favor such an event.

there is NO PNA ridge...which would not give much credence to the trough amplification the EUS...secondly there is NO 50/50 low to hold in the cold air close to the coast or hold in high pressure to supply the cold air...not to mention the NAO is positive.

now of couse...this is the GFS it sees things that really ARE NOT there.

JCT777 · #11 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 12:57 pm

Steph - that map looks wonderful, but it is most likely just a fantasy. But we are allowed to dream, aren't we? :22:

#12 Postby **FLguy** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 1:21 pm

the other problem is that the GFS overwhelms the pattern with too much cold air...so even in spite of that which i have discussed above the model still shows a significant event.

#13 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 2:18 pm

what's a 50/50 low?

I thought it was interesting to still see a storm brewing for the 11th by the GFS. I agree though, it remains to be seen.

A postive PNA does what to the atmosphere and how does that affect our weather? I get all of the different scenerios confused. I know a positive NAO inhibits storm development for us on the EC while the negative NAO doesn't.

#14 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 2:23 pm

I believe it is a low in the Atlantic parked near 50 north and 50 west. Several on here have more info than I.

#15 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 2:32 pm

Thanks Lowpressure!

JCT777 · #16 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 3:14 pm

Stephanie: A +PNA usually supports a ridge in the west, and a -NAO usually supports a trough in the east. If both occur simultaneously in the winter and are strong (a very positive PNA combined with a very negative NAO) - that almost always means VERY cold air for the eastern U.S.

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 7:07 pm

JCT777 wrote:Stephanie: A +PNA usually supports a ridge in the west, and a -NAO usually supports a trough in the east. If both occur simultaneously in the winter and are strong (a very positive PNA combined with a very negative NAO) - that almost always means VERY cold air for the eastern U.S.

Not always, John ... however, more times than not, +PNA, -NAO simultaneously DOES indicate the best changes for locking cold air in the Eastern US, and yes, the best potential for wintry weather across the East. Like I said, 2001-2002 did feature the +PNA, -NAO, however, there wasn't any cold air in Canada during many timeframes, so even though the overall patternwas set up perfectly, it only can drag down what air is in Canada at that time. IF we get a good +PNA, and -NAO setup, and looking at some of the teleconnection indications that are progged, look the hell out, 'cuz, the ARCTIC is about to unleash in Canada. And one good storm or kicker (Midwestern Storm of some sort) has the capability to push down that arctic blast straight on down.

SF

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 7:16 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
JCT777 wrote:Stephanie: A +PNA usually supports a ridge in the west, and a -NAO usually supports a trough in the east. If both occur simultaneously in the winter and are strong (a very positive PNA combined with a very negative NAO) - that almost always means VERY cold air for the eastern U.S.

Not always, John ... however, more times than not, +PNA, -NAO simultaneously DOES indicate the best changes for locking cold air in the Eastern US, and yes, the best potential for wintry weather across the East. Like I said, 2001-2002 did feature the +PNA, -NAO, however, there wasn't any cold air in Canada during many timeframes, so even though the overall patternwas set up perfectly, it only can drag down what air is in Canada at that time. IF we get a good +PNA, and -NAO setup, and looking at some of the teleconnection indications that are progged, look the hell out, 'cuz, the ARCTIC is about to unleash in Canada. And one good storm or kicker (Midwestern Storm of some sort) has the capability to push down that arctic blast straight on down.

SF

Then, SEND IT THE HELL ON DOWN!!! Cuz I am ready to shovel snow and walk across the Potomac River on one heck of a jebwalk!!!! I did mean walk, not swim, across the frozen Potomac River.

I want my Crippling blizzard w/3 feet of wind-whipped and drifted snow!!!

I am dying to dig snow!!! I'm dying for my wintry jebwalk with HUGE plowed piles of snow 35 feet tall!!

BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!

#19 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Dec 30, 2003 7:18 pm

Thanks guys!

It's easy to envision the cold air dropping south in that +PNA/-NAO scenerio!

R0bb0871 · #20 Postby **R0bb0871** » Wed Dec 31, 2003 12:16 am

Oddly enough, look at the image now. :cry:

Days 11-13 GFS

Days 11-13 GFS

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