DAY 10 euro...

[Guest]

The day 10 euro COULD be a significant change.

My position has been and will be that in MOST cases with a strong Neg QBO and HOWLING Pacific Jet there are 2 and ONLY two ways to get the pattern to change from trough over pacific NW / ridge over SE pattern.

a ROLLOVER ridge (which is NOT really a classic +PNA) that moves in from Alaska into western Canada and splits the flow

OR the development of a 50/50 low that allows a -NAO and flattens the SE ridge.

The day 8-10 euro takes a weak 500 low over SE canada -- NOT really a 50/50 low but its there.... and rotates it into North central canada near Baffin island while the western PV slides east into Northern Manitoba then northwestern Ontario.

In effect its a FUJIWARA effect / dance that finally crashed the SE ridge and provides a realisitic mechanism for delivering cold air into the eastern US.

I dont know if the euro ensembles support this idea or not.

BTW the 18z GFS which shows record and severe cold plunging into the deep south as well as the Northeast is BS IMO. Given the large pool of cold water in the eastern Pacific I see no reason for the 18z GFS MONTSER +PNA development.... the cold water in th eastern paciific supports Lower hts off the west coast... the western US Trough that we have seen all winter.

IF and ONLY if the SST in th eastern pacific were to suddenly warm could there be any +PNA pattern setting up.

[FLguy]

True DT...but lets not also forget the warm water west of the dateline which ALSO favors the set up of a cold pattern downstream across the EUS IF its not mitigated by other factors...

[FLguy]

[FLguy]

the 18z GFS obviouly is over-estimating strength of the PNA ridge...though shuch things are common for the GFS especially off the 06z and 18z runs...

the development of the PNA ridge however is supported strongly by the ensembels as we head out toward day 16...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

[Stormsfury]

And this would have to do with the POS anomalies showing up West of the Dateline or specifically Japan? If my interpretation is correct, that MIGHT induce a buckling of the teleconnections from the far east to North America. Also, wouldn't this strength the Aleutian Low which could induce +PNA ridging, and shifting the PV across Eastern Canada?

One of the things that does concern me as well is the ECMWF depiction of a weak NAO (and a dumbbelling of the vorticies, somewhat of a Fujiwhara Effect).

Perhaps, I'm a little over my head here, but just speculating.

SF

[Stormsfury]

the 18z GFS obviouly is over-estimating strength of the PNA ridge...though shuch things are common for the GFS especially off the 06z and 18z runs...

the development of the PNA ridge however is supported strongly by the ensembels as we head out toward day 16...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

Ummm, holy CRAP!!! ...

Almost all of the ensemble members are progging a way +PNA after bottoming way NEG in the short term.

[Guest]

sorry but this is Utter BS. This is the 4th time in 2 weeks the CPC indicies have shown a HIUGE rpaid rise in the PNA

Its CRAPOLA. The GFS says the PNA will rise from EXTREME ne values of -4 to extreme POS values of + 4 in 5 days.

Not only is this extremely unlikely to happen but with NO change in the SSTA in the central to eastern Pacific its practically impossible

the 18z GFS obviouly is over-estimating strength of the PNA ridge...though shuch things are common for the GFS especially off the 06z and 18z runs...

the development of the PNA ridge however is supported strongly by the ensembels as we head out toward day 16...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

[piedmont]

good thing u said practically impossible...i was ognna say...in the wx world nothing is impossible.....

[Scott_inVA]

And this would have to do with the POS anomalies showing up West of the Dateline or specifically Japan? If my interpretation is correct, that MIGHT induce a buckling of the teleconnections from the far east to North America. Also, wouldn't this strength the Aleutian Low which could induce +PNA ridging, and shifting the PV across Eastern Canada?

One of the things that does concern me as well is the ECMWF depiction of a weak NAO (and a dumbbelling of the vorticies, somewhat of a Fujiwhara Effect).

Perhaps, I'm a little over my head here, but just speculating.

SF

Lose the chick, SF. I'm not paying attention to textural content and can't concetrate on studious replies

Scott

[FLguy]

sorry but this is Utter BS. This is the 4th time in 2 weeks the CPC indicies have shown a HIUGE rpaid rise in the PNA

Its CRAPOLA. The GFS says the PNA will rise from EXTREME ne values of -4 to extreme POS values of + 4 in 5 days.

Not only is this extremely unlikely to happen but with NO change in the SSTA in the central to eastern Pacific its practically impossible

the 18z GFS obviouly is over-estimating strength of the PNA ridge...though shuch things are common for the GFS especially off the 06z and 18z runs...

the development of the PNA ridge however is supported strongly by the ensembels as we head out toward day 16...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

Frequently the GFS ensembels will indicate rapid rises in the PNA index only to have it verify weak or moderately postive...same deal with other indices...

the PNA however DOES have a tendency for more significant ups and owns than other teleconnections...

that is to say the PNA can at times go QUICKLY from positive to Negative or Negative to positive...complicating the pattern here in north america.

IMO the ensembels are on to something...though not to the extent of what is indicated...

the 18z run of the operational GFS is BS in relation to how obscenely cold the pattern becomes...

[FLguy]

And this would have to do with the POS anomalies showing up West of the Dateline or specifically Japan? If my interpretation is correct, that MIGHT induce a buckling of the teleconnections from the far east to North America. Also, wouldn't this strength the Aleutian Low which could induce +PNA ridging, and shifting the PV across Eastern Canada?

One of the things that does concern me as well is the ECMWF depiction of a weak NAO (and a dumbbelling of the vorticies, somewhat of a Fujiwhara Effect).

Perhaps, I'm a little over my head here, but just speculating.

SF

Lose the chick, SF. I'm not paying attention to textural content and can't concetrate on studious replies

Scott

you need to lose the scrooge...lol

(IT DEGRADES THE QUALITY OF THE THREAD....)

[chadtm80]

Nothing in this thread makes any sence to me, except for one thing


.



.
.



.


.


.

ahhhhhh.. Now this is a "graphical model" I can get down with

[Stormsfury]

And this would have to do with the POS anomalies showing up West of the Dateline or specifically Japan? If my interpretation is correct, that MIGHT induce a buckling of the teleconnections from the far east to North America. Also, wouldn't this strength the Aleutian Low which could induce +PNA ridging, and shifting the PV across Eastern Canada?

One of the things that does concern me as well is the ECMWF depiction of a weak NAO (and a dumbbelling of the vorticies, somewhat of a Fujiwhara Effect).

Perhaps, I'm a little over my head here, but just speculating.

SF

Lose the chick, SF. I'm not paying attention to textural content and can't concetrate on studious replies

Scott

BWAHAHAHA!!!!

FLguy's avatar looks just as good as well ... Hmmm, I wonder where that came from ... *snickering*

SF

[southerngale]

Gee SF...think I need to call up Sherlock Holmes??

[FLguy]

Gee SF...think I need to call up Sherlock Holmes??

its like i said...



this is just like buying a car...

all you need...fully loaded... all the extras...and upgrades...

[chadtm80]

and one hell of a back Bumper

[FLguy]

and one hell of a back Bumper

As much as i hould NOT be invloved in this I must say...i would love to shoot that star....haha...

[chadtm80]

ROFLMAO!!! Ya, at least mrschad dosent check this forum.. She sticks in the off topic forum.. lol

[FLguy]

ROFLMAO!!! Ya, at least mrschad dosent check this forum.. She sticks in the off topic forum.. lol

hahaha...mine doesn/t...(you know what i mean...and why)

[southerngale]

ROFLMAO!!! Ya, at least mrschad dosent check this forum.. She sticks in the off topic forum.. lol

Oh really? Interesting piece of information. Now, about that raise.....