The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
We have light winds out of the North and quite dry air, dewpoints in the mid teens, and clear as a bell, same as last night. It has taken us over two and a half hours to fall 7 degrees from this afternoon's admittedly mild high temperature of 51 degrees. Last night it took us all evening to fall 3 degrees. We had light north winds at 2 mph, dewpoints in the teens, clear skies last night. Tomorrow we are forecast to see highs in the mid to upper 50s followed by lows in the low 40s. Did you know that our normal high this time of year is about 46 degrees?
This is the pattern we can expect to see most of January and February. In February it will get milder as the month progresses.
I believe that January will actually turn out no chillier than December was in N VA. It could even be a little milder.
The discussions everyone is having about arctic air in the US hints at no more than what could be termed an average winter in the MA.
Which is:
Highs in the 40s and 50s with lows 32 to 42 each night, and a few rain storms throughout, as per normal. About Jan 20, chc of arctic air. If we get it, probably highs in the mid 30s with lows around 28. Maybe an outside chc of a minimal snow (2 to 4 inches) which would melt in 3 to at most, 6 days.
In one of our more chillier winters, arctic air arrives around Jan 6 to Jan 8 and lasts 2 weeks. Those type of winters, we get about 6 inches and it stays on the ground for about 2 weeks. That's what WE call a good winter here in the torrid Mid Atlantic. The mountains are MUCH different however........
If we get the arctic weather late in Jan, you can take this to your favorite bank of choice: It'll be a short outbreak and modified by the SE Ridge besides.
The northern and central Plains, northern Rockies, portions of the Pac Northwest, and the upper OV are places reserved for possibly major deep cold and severe snows this winter. The northernmost northeastern states will also be very cold and snowy. They can't help it; they are climatologically favored.
Because of the deep trough that the SE Ridge in the east will amplify, the TX/OK region in the southern plains will not only experience deep cold a couple times this winter, they may well find themselves right smack dab in the snow shield of some of the deepest storms to develop this winter.
The East stands to enjoy some of the best savings on fuel bills in recent winters, while the northern, central, and occasionally the southern Plains as well as the Pac Northwest will be paying through the nose on heating bills this winter. In some regions the bad news will continue through April. Extensive snowcover in Canada will see to that..................
The Midwest and areas west of the Appalachian Mts had best stock up on snowblowers soon. Spend a lot of money; get the very best money can buy, you'll need it, trust me. Buy a few good snow shovels too. Get square-edged construction shovels, not those wimp shovels made of plastic! You gonna bet your life on a dumb plastic shovel that can break, or a nice carbonized tempered steel shovel that you can depend on? Don't forget the kitty litter and salt and sand in the back of your car or truck, they help traction and the weight will help too. Bring extra blankets. The storm tracks this winter are going to dump and dump and dump and dump heavy snow on those areas all winter long. The mild weather in the east and the edge of the arctic air to the west will be the boundary that the storms will follow all winter, and one storm will pave the way for the next. The SE Ridge will supply heat and energy to the east of the main storm track all winter; the difference between the colder air to the west and the persistently moist and mild, even warm air over the east will set the stage for many storms to develop. Differing humidities and temperature regimes will birth many a memorable storm that will soak the East and worsen what already shapes up to be a very serious flooding potential in the East, while literally burying many communities west of the Appalachians and even occasionally in the Appalachians in heavy, unrelenting snow after heavy, unrelenting snow after heavy, unrelenting snow. Federal disaster areas will be declared and President Bush will have
a lot of weather-related woes on his plate.
It's gonna be a really BAD winter allright; just not in the East and definitely not in the Mid Atlantic.
JEB