The most recent Canadian ensemble means are currently showing above normal temperatures across much of Canada for an average over the current ten-day period.
In my view, one should take the Ensemble means with somewhat of a grain of salt. First, one should not that they depict an average. Second, bearing in mind the December situation where upper-level cold worked its way down to the surface leading to below normal readings in the East even as the pattern appeared to be a milder one, should also give one some pause for consideration.
In addition, it still appears that the cold will begin spreading into the U.S. starting with the Northern Plains and then expanding eastward (perhaps with the front reaching the East between January 3-5).
If I had to make an estimate, I would argue that the January 8-14 period would be colder, on average, than the January 1-7 period. The former period might actually average out close to normal given the timing of the cold's arrival in the East.
For what it's worth, in past years in which 500 mb height anomalies were relatively similar to those around the middle to latter part of December 2003, the Eastern U.S. generally saw January average out with below normal readings (including in the Southeastern U.S.).
With the ensembles predicting that the AO will head negative around the beginning of January, the NAO predicted to go strongly negative in early January, and the ECMWF showing the arrival of bitterly cold air ( around -37C at 850 mb) in western Canada near the end of December, there are enough ingredients available so as to caution one against writing off the cold for January.
Whether the cold comes in a big blast or more gradually is a different matter. The sustained cold and gradual strengthening seems more likely to me.
The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Weather
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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donsutherland1
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donsutherland1
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Re: The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Wea
Yesterday, I had noted, "Whether the cold comes in a big blast or more gradually is a different matter. The sustained cold and gradual strengthening seems more likely to me."
From an examination of years in which patterns were approximately the same as those that prevailed during the most recent 10 days of December, one has seen the cold come in in pulses with the climax coming several weeks down the road (no one should take the numbers literally, as they are intended only to outline in a general sense what happened in the past). A thaw had typically set in toward the end of the month. For what it's worth, the best chance for extreme cold would exist in the January 18-25 period after which a noticeable warmup would commence.
Not yet using the model guidance, these analogs would suggest for the Washington, DC to NYC area:
December 25-31: Readings somewhat above normal (+0.5 to 2.5 degrees?)
January 1-7: Readings near normal (-1.0 to +1.0 degrees?)
January 8-14: Readings below normal (-4.0 to -2.0 degrees?)
January 15-21: Readings much below normal to below normal (-5.8 to -3.8 degrees?)
January 22-28: Readings much below normal to below normal (-7.3 to -5.3 degrees)
January 29-31: Readings somewhat above normal (+0.5 to +2.5 degrees?)
Incorporating model guidance, it does appear that the closing days of December will likely see readings somewhat above normal. Moreover, the timing of a significant cold front reaching the East Coast in the January 3-5 timeframe still looks reasonable, though there are some fluctuations in the modeling.
For now, what's most important isn't necessarily the precision of the timing. I'm sure that there will be some variation from what is shown from the past. However, the guidance is still useful in noting that (1) the cold will be coming in January; (2) January will likely be a colder than normal month (agreed upon in all cases with similar patterns); and (3) the cold will be sustained but will be reinforced and strengthened in several pulses.
Also, for what it's worth, there are some sharp disagreements with regard to past patterns with regard to precipitation in the East. My estimate at this time is that one will see the storm track gradually sink to the south and suppression take over for a stretch when the cold is strongest. Clippers will then become the main source of precipitation. Toward the end of the month, the storm track may likely come northward again. Therefore, precipitation will probably run below normal from Washington, DC to Boston for January.
In terms of snowfall, half of the years had modest snowfall. One had much below normal snowfall and one had much above normal snowfall (a significant share of which fell in a single storm).
From an examination of years in which patterns were approximately the same as those that prevailed during the most recent 10 days of December, one has seen the cold come in in pulses with the climax coming several weeks down the road (no one should take the numbers literally, as they are intended only to outline in a general sense what happened in the past). A thaw had typically set in toward the end of the month. For what it's worth, the best chance for extreme cold would exist in the January 18-25 period after which a noticeable warmup would commence.
Not yet using the model guidance, these analogs would suggest for the Washington, DC to NYC area:
December 25-31: Readings somewhat above normal (+0.5 to 2.5 degrees?)
January 1-7: Readings near normal (-1.0 to +1.0 degrees?)
January 8-14: Readings below normal (-4.0 to -2.0 degrees?)
January 15-21: Readings much below normal to below normal (-5.8 to -3.8 degrees?)
January 22-28: Readings much below normal to below normal (-7.3 to -5.3 degrees)
January 29-31: Readings somewhat above normal (+0.5 to +2.5 degrees?)
Incorporating model guidance, it does appear that the closing days of December will likely see readings somewhat above normal. Moreover, the timing of a significant cold front reaching the East Coast in the January 3-5 timeframe still looks reasonable, though there are some fluctuations in the modeling.
For now, what's most important isn't necessarily the precision of the timing. I'm sure that there will be some variation from what is shown from the past. However, the guidance is still useful in noting that (1) the cold will be coming in January; (2) January will likely be a colder than normal month (agreed upon in all cases with similar patterns); and (3) the cold will be sustained but will be reinforced and strengthened in several pulses.
Also, for what it's worth, there are some sharp disagreements with regard to past patterns with regard to precipitation in the East. My estimate at this time is that one will see the storm track gradually sink to the south and suppression take over for a stretch when the cold is strongest. Clippers will then become the main source of precipitation. Toward the end of the month, the storm track may likely come northward again. Therefore, precipitation will probably run below normal from Washington, DC to Boston for January.
In terms of snowfall, half of the years had modest snowfall. One had much below normal snowfall and one had much above normal snowfall (a significant share of which fell in a single storm).
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Guest
Great discussion as always Don. You are such a great assett to this board and i do appericate seeing you share your thoughts here!
I for one agree with what you said. It kinda goes hand in hand with my winter outlook. And as well what you pointed out about the models and how they are handling things. Untill the cold air gets fully intrenced in the eastern areas i think most across the USA should see some good shots at some snowfall including the pac nw coastal "suprised i bet"areas and the plains into the midwest especially. BTW those of you along the eastcoast will wanna keep a eye on those clippers as i see one perhaps having some possibilities of making that turn up the coast which hasnt happend in a long while. But the pattern comming fits it imo which is why i think its a good possibility.....
I for one agree with what you said. It kinda goes hand in hand with my winter outlook. And as well what you pointed out about the models and how they are handling things. Untill the cold air gets fully intrenced in the eastern areas i think most across the USA should see some good shots at some snowfall including the pac nw coastal "suprised i bet"areas and the plains into the midwest especially. BTW those of you along the eastcoast will wanna keep a eye on those clippers as i see one perhaps having some possibilities of making that turn up the coast which hasnt happend in a long while. But the pattern comming fits it imo which is why i think its a good possibility.....
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donsutherland1
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Thanks, King of Weather.
After having glanced at the models this evening, I have no major changes. Things seem to be evolving nicely. I do believe that after January 10-12, one will see the storm track become noticeably more suppressed. Until then, storms crossing the country will need to be watched closely, as the potential for both overrunning and also a turn north offshore will be present.
After January 1-3, if the past years I have assessed are of any indication, the main storm track will probably see storms exist somewhere between the lower Delmarva and eastern North Carolina (possibly turning north) rather than cutting to the Lakes or St. Lawrence Valley.
Hopefully, the Midwest can enjoy some decent snowfall before the storm track grows increasingly suppressed. Given historical patterns with respect to Decembers in which NYC and Boston received 12"+ and also early significant snowfalls on or before December 7, I have little doubt that the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will enjoy much more snowfall before the winter is finished. I am not as certain with respect to the Midwest, though one of the years in question seemed to suggest the possibility for a big storm in the Midwest later in January perhaps as the cold retreats toward the end of the month.
After having glanced at the models this evening, I have no major changes. Things seem to be evolving nicely. I do believe that after January 10-12, one will see the storm track become noticeably more suppressed. Until then, storms crossing the country will need to be watched closely, as the potential for both overrunning and also a turn north offshore will be present.
After January 1-3, if the past years I have assessed are of any indication, the main storm track will probably see storms exist somewhere between the lower Delmarva and eastern North Carolina (possibly turning north) rather than cutting to the Lakes or St. Lawrence Valley.
Hopefully, the Midwest can enjoy some decent snowfall before the storm track grows increasingly suppressed. Given historical patterns with respect to Decembers in which NYC and Boston received 12"+ and also early significant snowfalls on or before December 7, I have little doubt that the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will enjoy much more snowfall before the winter is finished. I am not as certain with respect to the Midwest, though one of the years in question seemed to suggest the possibility for a big storm in the Midwest later in January perhaps as the cold retreats toward the end of the month.
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Guest
Pretty much agree on all this once again. However im gonna add in someother areas that seem not to be mentioned as much which WE have alot of members that reside in such as the Central/southern Plains and along the Gulfcoast states from TX to FL and as well the SW.
With the pattern evolving such as Don has mentioned and i as well i think this perhaps will be your best time this winter to see some snows in the southern states (TX East) as the storm track becomes supressed as Don has alluded to. Which if the models and everything else holds up by the second week of Jan the cold air should be to the Gulf and with the pac perhaps picking up at that time it seems very possible that we could be seeing some wintry precip near or along the gulfcoast during this time frame. As usuall timming will be everything. I think the best shot at this will be areas from TX to MS/AL gulfcoast areas as places farther east towards the Atlantic in Southern GA near the FL line will have a less chance of this happening unless the precip can get in quick enough before the winds back around to the S or E direction.
Alot of the western states should do well from this pattern especially from the Central rockies on north.
The SW looks to have its shot at some decent precip perhaps early in the month as the cold air should be invading thses areas first before it heads east and as well bring in some decent Pacific moisture ahead of the cold air.
As this cold air penetrates the western areas this is when i expect to see even the coastal areas of WA/OR and even perhaps the northern most coastal areas of CA could see some snow out of this. Of course the best chance and most will be farther to the north towards Portland and the Seattle areas.
The Northern Plains on over into the Midwest/Lakes/OV will probably startout and end on a stormy note. These areas should do well with the clippers and perhaps a storm at the begining of the month with the inital push of artic air especially in the Northern Plains on over to the Midwest and western Lakes. At the end of the month is when areas farher east towards the OV has a good shot at a decent storm as the cold air retreats. I will note as well the OV/Southern Lakes could see a very decent over running event around midmonth.
These are my thoughts for now for the month of Jan..........
Again Thanks Don for any input you may have on these areas. I know you typically follow the NE but if you can add anything to this it would be appericated. Thanks!
With the pattern evolving such as Don has mentioned and i as well i think this perhaps will be your best time this winter to see some snows in the southern states (TX East) as the storm track becomes supressed as Don has alluded to. Which if the models and everything else holds up by the second week of Jan the cold air should be to the Gulf and with the pac perhaps picking up at that time it seems very possible that we could be seeing some wintry precip near or along the gulfcoast during this time frame. As usuall timming will be everything. I think the best shot at this will be areas from TX to MS/AL gulfcoast areas as places farther east towards the Atlantic in Southern GA near the FL line will have a less chance of this happening unless the precip can get in quick enough before the winds back around to the S or E direction.
Alot of the western states should do well from this pattern especially from the Central rockies on north.
The SW looks to have its shot at some decent precip perhaps early in the month as the cold air should be invading thses areas first before it heads east and as well bring in some decent Pacific moisture ahead of the cold air.
As this cold air penetrates the western areas this is when i expect to see even the coastal areas of WA/OR and even perhaps the northern most coastal areas of CA could see some snow out of this. Of course the best chance and most will be farther to the north towards Portland and the Seattle areas.
The Northern Plains on over into the Midwest/Lakes/OV will probably startout and end on a stormy note. These areas should do well with the clippers and perhaps a storm at the begining of the month with the inital push of artic air especially in the Northern Plains on over to the Midwest and western Lakes. At the end of the month is when areas farher east towards the OV has a good shot at a decent storm as the cold air retreats. I will note as well the OV/Southern Lakes could see a very decent over running event around midmonth.
These are my thoughts for now for the month of Jan..........
Again Thanks Don for any input you may have on these areas. I know you typically follow the NE but if you can add anything to this it would be appericated. Thanks!
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Anonymous
MERRY CHRISTMAS 2003!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
The weather early this Christmas morning here in northern Virginia is MUCH Improved!!!!
Last night we were enduring a brutal 62 degree regime at 11PM with rain.
Tonight, MUCH better weather is being observed, with refreshing N winds at 12 to 23 mph bringing in much cooler, drier air. The temperature is 32 degrees at 1248AM this 2003 Christmas morning, with much cooler, drier dewpoints in the mid teens.
Tomorrow's forecast calls for cool weather, with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s. This is much better than last night. Good sleeping weather.
Bring on the arctic air!!! I want highs in the low teens or lower, with overnight lows in the negative upper single digits to the negative mid teens, with dewpoints in the negative 10 to 18 degree range. If its colder, so much the better. There is nothing as uplifting to the spirit as a good water-main break, with the water forming a nice slick ice sheet and a nice bright glare from the sun off the ice, not to mention a nice good long slide on the fresh ice sheet!
Siberian JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The weather early this Christmas morning here in northern Virginia is MUCH Improved!!!!
Last night we were enduring a brutal 62 degree regime at 11PM with rain.
Tonight, MUCH better weather is being observed, with refreshing N winds at 12 to 23 mph bringing in much cooler, drier air. The temperature is 32 degrees at 1248AM this 2003 Christmas morning, with much cooler, drier dewpoints in the mid teens.
Tomorrow's forecast calls for cool weather, with highs in the upper 30s and lows in the mid 20s. This is much better than last night. Good sleeping weather.
Bring on the arctic air!!! I want highs in the low teens or lower, with overnight lows in the negative upper single digits to the negative mid teens, with dewpoints in the negative 10 to 18 degree range. If its colder, so much the better. There is nothing as uplifting to the spirit as a good water-main break, with the water forming a nice slick ice sheet and a nice bright glare from the sun off the ice, not to mention a nice good long slide on the fresh ice sheet!
Siberian JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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donsutherland1
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King of Weather,
I'll take a closer look at some of the areas you mentioned later today. For now, I believe the strongest temperature anomalies will be felt in the Northern Plains and Ohio Valley as the cold expands eastward, first entering the Northern Plains.
In the January 18-25 period in which there is the best chance for severe cold across many parts of the eastern U.S., it would not surprise me to see a freeze in the Citrus Belt and unseasonably cold readings in the Deep South.
I'll take a closer look at some of the areas you mentioned later today. For now, I believe the strongest temperature anomalies will be felt in the Northern Plains and Ohio Valley as the cold expands eastward, first entering the Northern Plains.
In the January 18-25 period in which there is the best chance for severe cold across many parts of the eastern U.S., it would not surprise me to see a freeze in the Citrus Belt and unseasonably cold readings in the Deep South.
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Cumulonimbus
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I am interested in seeing the various posts regarding the upcoming cold period. I live in Seattle and we have not had a "cold" snap in about 5 years. The last one was 1998 and was more of a modified arctic airmass rather than the true cold we have gotten in past years.
When looking at the models however I wonder...is it really going to get cold here in western Washington. The GFS in particular is terrible in continuity, 1 day forecasting severe arctic chill and then the next day almost no arctic air here at all. My guess is that we probably will get cold but not all that severe. Hope I am wrong because I would like a real arctic airmass to invade the west coast. For those of you who live in the east and southeast that like colder weather and snow I can sympathize as Seattle only gets snow about once ever 5 years and usually is no more than an inch or 2. I live 10 miles east of Seattle and today is one of those lucky days. We had an inch of wet snow fall overnight which is melting pretty fast. More is predicted tho. Still I would like to see a real arctic front move through with gusty strong nne winds and plummeting temps.
Hope we get a shot at it.
Alex
When looking at the models however I wonder...is it really going to get cold here in western Washington. The GFS in particular is terrible in continuity, 1 day forecasting severe arctic chill and then the next day almost no arctic air here at all. My guess is that we probably will get cold but not all that severe. Hope I am wrong because I would like a real arctic airmass to invade the west coast. For those of you who live in the east and southeast that like colder weather and snow I can sympathize as Seattle only gets snow about once ever 5 years and usually is no more than an inch or 2. I live 10 miles east of Seattle and today is one of those lucky days. We had an inch of wet snow fall overnight which is melting pretty fast. More is predicted tho. Still I would like to see a real arctic front move through with gusty strong nne winds and plummeting temps.
Hope we get a shot at it.
Alex
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donsutherland1
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Looking at some of the computer guidance (still major uncertainties exist) and the historical patterns, it appears that the pattern could evolve roughly as follows outside of the East:
Southwest: Overall, a wetter than normal month with precipitation anomalies possibly in the 0.25"-0.75" above normal range. The first week will likely average near to below normal but progressively milder conditions should follow. The January 22-28 period could see above normal to perhaps much above normal readings, but this should be the warmest part of the month.
Ohio Valley: Precipitation will likely average somewhat below normal. However, there will be opportunities for snow over the first 10 days in January and then perhaps toward the end of the month ahead of a thaw. Just as is the case with regard to the East, the January 15-21 and January 22-28 weeks look coldest and there could be severe cold during part of that period. One of the comparison years had a major snowstorm toward the end of the month and given that all but one of the comparison years had a thaw setting in toward the end of the month and the propensity of storms to begin to come north ahead of such a pattern change, this may be something to watch out for.
Southeast: A dry month appears likely, though there should be a period of time when the storm track is suppressed. Two possible opportunities for much below normal cold are hinted at by the historical comparisons: January 8-14 and then January 22-28. Given the hints of severe cold in the East and Ohio Valley during the latter week, it is probable that this timeframe offers the best possibility for a freeze in the Deep South and into Florida.
Again, one should bear in mind that the historical comparisons offer some guidance. As the timeframe comes into the range of the computer models, additional hints will be available.
So far, though, it appears that the models are trending in good fashion toward the scenario outlined in this post and at the beginning of this thread. Whether that remains the case is uncertain, but I do believe that even the Deep South will have one or perhaps two opportunities for noteworthy cold before January ends.
Southwest: Overall, a wetter than normal month with precipitation anomalies possibly in the 0.25"-0.75" above normal range. The first week will likely average near to below normal but progressively milder conditions should follow. The January 22-28 period could see above normal to perhaps much above normal readings, but this should be the warmest part of the month.
Ohio Valley: Precipitation will likely average somewhat below normal. However, there will be opportunities for snow over the first 10 days in January and then perhaps toward the end of the month ahead of a thaw. Just as is the case with regard to the East, the January 15-21 and January 22-28 weeks look coldest and there could be severe cold during part of that period. One of the comparison years had a major snowstorm toward the end of the month and given that all but one of the comparison years had a thaw setting in toward the end of the month and the propensity of storms to begin to come north ahead of such a pattern change, this may be something to watch out for.
Southeast: A dry month appears likely, though there should be a period of time when the storm track is suppressed. Two possible opportunities for much below normal cold are hinted at by the historical comparisons: January 8-14 and then January 22-28. Given the hints of severe cold in the East and Ohio Valley during the latter week, it is probable that this timeframe offers the best possibility for a freeze in the Deep South and into Florida.
Again, one should bear in mind that the historical comparisons offer some guidance. As the timeframe comes into the range of the computer models, additional hints will be available.
So far, though, it appears that the models are trending in good fashion toward the scenario outlined in this post and at the beginning of this thread. Whether that remains the case is uncertain, but I do believe that even the Deep South will have one or perhaps two opportunities for noteworthy cold before January ends.
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donsutherland1
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Re: The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Wea
On December 23, I had noted, "...it still appears that the cold will begin spreading into the U.S. starting with the Northern Plains and then expanding eastward (perhaps with the front reaching the East between January 3-5)."
So far, this initial idea continues to look remarkably good.
For example, here are the 850 mb temperatures on the latest run of the ECMWF:
Boston:
January 5: +7C
January 6: -9C
Charleston, SC:
January 5: +14C
January 6: +7C
New York City:
January 5: +11C
January 6: -9C
Washington, DC:
January 5: +11C
January 6: -8C
At this point in time, I do not believe that the big cities of the Northeast will see any appreciable snowfall on Monday. However, it is possible that the precipitation might mix with or end as a brief period of wet snow or flurries as the colder air pushes into the region.
Overall, it continues to appear that the January 8-14 period will average colder than the January 1-7 period, so that part of the idea also looks good from this point in time.
For now, I hope all have a Happy New Year and, for winter weather lovers, the expected arrival of colder weather, which remains on track, can only bring happiness.
So far, this initial idea continues to look remarkably good.
For example, here are the 850 mb temperatures on the latest run of the ECMWF:
Boston:
January 5: +7C
January 6: -9C
Charleston, SC:
January 5: +14C
January 6: +7C
New York City:
January 5: +11C
January 6: -9C
Washington, DC:
January 5: +11C
January 6: -8C
At this point in time, I do not believe that the big cities of the Northeast will see any appreciable snowfall on Monday. However, it is possible that the precipitation might mix with or end as a brief period of wet snow or flurries as the colder air pushes into the region.
Overall, it continues to appear that the January 8-14 period will average colder than the January 1-7 period, so that part of the idea also looks good from this point in time.
For now, I hope all have a Happy New Year and, for winter weather lovers, the expected arrival of colder weather, which remains on track, can only bring happiness.
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Chris the Weather Man
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Re: The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Wea
donsutherland1 wrote:On December 23, I had noted, "...it still appears that the cold will begin spreading into the U.S. starting with the Northern Plains and then expanding eastward (perhaps with the front reaching the East between January 3-5)."
So far, this initial idea continues to look remarkably good.
For example, here are the 850 mb temperatures on the latest run of the ECMWF:
Boston:
January 5: +7C
January 6: -9C
Charleston, SC:
January 5: +14C
January 6: +7C
New York City:
January 5: +11C
January 6: -9C
Washington, DC:
January 5: +11C
January 6: -8C
At this point in time, I do not believe that the big cities of the Northeast will see any appreciable snowfall on Monday. However, it is possible that the precipitation might mix with or end as a brief period of wet snow or flurries as the colder air pushes into the region.
Overall, it continues to appear that the January 8-14 period will average colder than the January 1-7 period, so that part of the idea also looks good from this point in time.
For now, I hope all have a Happy New Year and, for winter weather lovers, the expected arrival of colder weather, which remains on track, can only bring happiness.
Don, Thanks for your wonderful Analysis and Website. It is possible that, on Jan 18th-25th, we can see Very cold air? like below Zero or Near Zero temps? Lke 1994?
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Cumulonimbus
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Don:
Looks like you were correct about the Pacific Northwest. It has gotten cold enough for snow to fall down to near sea level. I live about 10 miles east of Seattle. We had 2-3 inches of snow overnight Tuesday-Wednesday and again this afternoon we began getting very light snow. It has increased in intensity and about 1/2 to an inch has fallen since about 2pm. They are still predicting a modified arctic front and snow showers tomorrow afternoon/even with up to 5 inches of snow possible near the Canadian border and an inch possible here but turning colder for the next 3-5 days.
Thanks for the cold weather...last time the word arctic was mentioned in any real sense was 1998 and it was much weaker. This is definitely not a strong push of arctic air, at least not in western Washington but I will take what I can get.
Portland got clobbered this morning from a storm which moved northeast through Oregon. So we in the coastal Pacific Northwest are finally getting a taste of winter.
Alex
Looks like you were correct about the Pacific Northwest. It has gotten cold enough for snow to fall down to near sea level. I live about 10 miles east of Seattle. We had 2-3 inches of snow overnight Tuesday-Wednesday and again this afternoon we began getting very light snow. It has increased in intensity and about 1/2 to an inch has fallen since about 2pm. They are still predicting a modified arctic front and snow showers tomorrow afternoon/even with up to 5 inches of snow possible near the Canadian border and an inch possible here but turning colder for the next 3-5 days.
Thanks for the cold weather...last time the word arctic was mentioned in any real sense was 1998 and it was much weaker. This is definitely not a strong push of arctic air, at least not in western Washington but I will take what I can get.
Portland got clobbered this morning from a storm which moved northeast through Oregon. So we in the coastal Pacific Northwest are finally getting a taste of winter.
Alex
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donsutherland1
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Alex,
Credit belongs to King of Weather on that call.
Having said that, it is good to see that the Pacific Northwest--aside from the mountains--received an accumulating snowfall.
Enjoy the cold while it lasts.
Unfortunately, based on the evolution of patterns similar to the current one, it appears that in spite of the cold start, January will probably end up with somewhat above normal readings for the Pacific Northwest (1-2 degrees above normal). It will probably be somewhat wetter than normal, as well.
Things continue to evolve in that direction and the GFS ensembles seem to be suggesting that the PNA will be rising in the not-too-distant future.
Credit belongs to King of Weather on that call.
Having said that, it is good to see that the Pacific Northwest--aside from the mountains--received an accumulating snowfall.
Enjoy the cold while it lasts.
Unfortunately, based on the evolution of patterns similar to the current one, it appears that in spite of the cold start, January will probably end up with somewhat above normal readings for the Pacific Northwest (1-2 degrees above normal). It will probably be somewhat wetter than normal, as well.
Things continue to evolve in that direction and the GFS ensembles seem to be suggesting that the PNA will be rising in the not-too-distant future.
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donsutherland1
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Re: The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Wea
Chris,
Thanks for the kind words.
Three quick points:
1) The January 18-25 timeframe appears best for severe cold based on the evolution of past similar patterns. The timing could differ somewhat this year, but we'll see how things evolve.
2) If you're talking below zero cold in NYC, that is a rare occurrence. I believe single digits are likely at some point this month. Below zero cold would be difficult to achieve though there's a better chance that such cold could occur in the NYC suburbs.
Since 1970, the following winters have seen subzero cold in NYC:
1975-76
1976-77
1980-81
1984-85
1993-94
3) If there can be snow cover prior to a full-fledged Arctic outbreak, then the chance could be improved somewhat. DT has an <b>excellent piece</b> pertaining to at least an intriguing possibility for a big snowstorm near mid-month but bear in mind that a lot of things have to come together to see the potential realized.
Thanks for the kind words.
Three quick points:
1) The January 18-25 timeframe appears best for severe cold based on the evolution of past similar patterns. The timing could differ somewhat this year, but we'll see how things evolve.
2) If you're talking below zero cold in NYC, that is a rare occurrence. I believe single digits are likely at some point this month. Below zero cold would be difficult to achieve though there's a better chance that such cold could occur in the NYC suburbs.
Since 1970, the following winters have seen subzero cold in NYC:
1975-76
1976-77
1980-81
1984-85
1993-94
3) If there can be snow cover prior to a full-fledged Arctic outbreak, then the chance could be improved somewhat. DT has an <b>excellent piece</b> pertaining to at least an intriguing possibility for a big snowstorm near mid-month but bear in mind that a lot of things have to come together to see the potential realized.
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donsutherland1
- S2K Analyst
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:49 pm
- Location: New York
Re: The First Two Weeks of January to See Turn to Colder Wea
Another day, and the modeling grows more impressed with the coming cold.
Right now, the latest European Model guidance is suggesting the following for coldest temperatures over the next week:
850 mb temperatures:
Boston: -23C (1/8)
Charleston: -2C (1/7)
Cleveland: -22C (1/7)
New York City: -19C (1/8)
Philadelphia: -19C (1/7)
Richmond: -16C (1/7)
Washington, DC: -18C (1/7)
At the same time, the ECMWF is hinting that the January 8-9 period could see some accumulating snow in Cleveland, which will head into the Washington, DC-Philadelphia-NYC area by January 9.
An interesting and wintry pattern to say the least.
Finally, for those interested in weather history, on January 3, 1095 Ireland was blanketed by a major snowstorm.
Right now, the latest European Model guidance is suggesting the following for coldest temperatures over the next week:
850 mb temperatures:
Boston: -23C (1/8)
Charleston: -2C (1/7)
Cleveland: -22C (1/7)
New York City: -19C (1/8)
Philadelphia: -19C (1/7)
Richmond: -16C (1/7)
Washington, DC: -18C (1/7)
At the same time, the ECMWF is hinting that the January 8-9 period could see some accumulating snow in Cleveland, which will head into the Washington, DC-Philadelphia-NYC area by January 9.
An interesting and wintry pattern to say the least.
Finally, for those interested in weather history, on January 3, 1095 Ireland was blanketed by a major snowstorm.
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