Wet pattern to be moving into the SW - finally!

[weatherlover427]

.LONG TERM...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LATEST 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UKMET AND EMCWF SOLUTIONS. INITIALLY...GOOD WSW ORIENTED JET COULD BRING FAIRLY GOOD RAIN EVENT TO CENTRAL COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ORIENTED AS RAIN SPREADS INTO LA/VTU COUNTIES. 00Z GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HOLDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE LA BASIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY... SO THREAT FOR RAINFALL INCREASING ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I hope that this happens. All the storms that we have had so far this rainy season have produced 0.15" or less (except for that freak event in late July that produced up to 1/3" in some areas of SW CA). Of course we need to be wary in the burn areas... . Of course the Desert SW could REALLLLLLLLY use it. Right Dennis?

[Guest]

Not trying to be a wise guy or anything. But how may i ask does this relate to winter weather? I see no mention of cold or snow in that discussion? Perhaps maybe this was meant for the USA forum?

Thanks for sharing though Josh.

[weatherlover427]

Wise guy.

sorry had to since you said it

well can you move it there then and then add your 2 cents??

[vbhoutex]

Well, here comes another wise guy. It does relate to winter weather in CA. It is a typical winter pattern for this time of year for them instead of the dry pattern they have been in. Not everything is cold during the winter in the US KOW!

[azsnowman]

YES K.O.W.........it "DOES" have a LOT to do with winter weather. My NAFD FLAG said the same thing, "Pattern appears to be changing AND along with the change, a sign. chance of HEAVY snows in coming weeks." Hmmmm......I *Think* heavy snow DOES somehow fit into the Winter Weather Forum, doesn't it??? Maybe I'm wrong!

Dennis

[Suzi Q]

Oh geez, here we go again.......

(EB ducks as all the members in this forum start pounding her with snowballs, rainballs, dustballs)

FWIW, here in the lovely Houston area, you'll not find many forecasts mentioning snow, but they are still pertinent in terms of winter weather, at least for us. So just because, IMO, a forecast does not specifically mention the word "SNOW", it doesn't mean it isn't a WINTER WEATHER forecast.

KOW, please don't slap me upside the head for this. I love reading your winter weather posts and getting a vicarious thrill from them. just adding my 1/2 cents worth.

[azsnowman]

My bad........it's DOESN'T mention HEAVY snows but non the less, a diff. pattern change "WOOOOHOOO!" It's ABOUT time "LOL!"

...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE INITIAL BAND OF CLOUDS HELPED PRE-SATURATE THE AIRMASS.
COULD BE SOME BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE COLD POCKET
TODAY...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. RIDGE QUICKLY FOLLOWS THE
TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL FORECASTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE JUST AFTER
CHRISTMAS. WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS THIS IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
PETERSON.



Dennis

[Guest]

LOL. well fine then!!:lol:

But anyways it is very very nice to see you guys getting some rain out that way because its very much needed. The next week or two you guys should have some decent shots at some rain or as in Dennis case snow. Longer term it looks likethat rotten ridge out that way wants to come back and set up shop again. But thats over a week away and can change!!!!

Enjoy your precip guys as i know you all desperately need it!!!!

[azsnowman]

Yes Virginia, there "IS" a Santa Claus, a little LATE but what the hay


IN THE EXTENDED...THE GFS...EUROPEAN...UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A COLD LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS TOGETHER THERE WILL BE
A SIGNIFICANT FETCH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR TO WORK WITH. HAVE GONE GENERALLY WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION COULD TURN TO ALL SNOW.



Dennis

[azsnowman]

Actually, all the local mets are calling for this system to move in Christmas Day and have a signif. snow maker Christmas night!

Dennis

[weatherlover427]

This has been a consistent call for a few days now. I hope it happens. We got a tad of drizzle / light rain last night, just enough to dust things off.

[azsnowman]

This mornings NAFD:

THIS IS ALL IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY STRONG SYSTEM STILL
PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY...AND LAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN
THAT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT
FORECASTS. PETERSON.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.



Dennis

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the west will be getting lots of snow after Christmas as a large trough with develop in the west. I'm hoping to see lots of snow for my ski trip after christmas

[azsnowman]

Well......the afternoon model run is gonna "TELL IT LIKE IT IS!" according to NWS FLAG, from the latest NAFD at 0915 MST, it's still on track, just waiting for the afternoon confirmation!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

"AYE CAP'N.....SHE'S HOLDIN' TOGETHER AND GOT HER EYE'S FIXED ON US!"

HOT DAWG! The system appears to be right on schedule and holdin' itself together and gainin' strength


SIGNIFICANT EPAC TROF
APPROACHES THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY SFC WINDS
TO THE CWA ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE WESTERN CWA SECTIONS
LATE IN THE DAY.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WX
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. RECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LENDS CREDENCE. COLD
TROF SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE OF THE
SEASON. GOOD LIFT ALSO INDICATED WITH STRONG OROGRAPHIC SW FLOW AT
700MB AND 250MB JET OVER THE STATE. ACCUMULATING SNOW A GOOD
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DYNAMICS MOVE EAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE AREA. TROFINESS REMAINS OVER WESTERN U.S. WITH A SERIES OF
S/WV RIPPLES AFFECTING THE DESERT AFTER MONDAY. DF




Dennis

[weatherlover427]

This could be the break that we've been waiting for, let's hope it holds true and breaks (at least some of) our deficits!

[StormCrazyIowan]

I'll hope for you!!

What are you still doing awake? LOL

[weatherlover427]

I'm still here.

What were YOU doing up at 3:10 AM your time? :o

[azsnowman]

Here comes the SNOooooooooooooooow Train (no, not SOUL train!)


A STRONGER S/WV TROF TO AFFECT THE DESERT SW LATE THUR THRU FRI.
TODAY'S RUNS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN YESTERDAYS WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLE OVER NW CWA BY CHRISTMAS DAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH MORE MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE ON FRI. AHEAD OF IT STRONG SW OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND
LIFT SEEN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING
SNOW EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU
AND MOGOLLON RIM AREAS. CAA WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR 4000 FT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DYNAMICS WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INSTABILITY
SHOWERS UNDER A COLD NW FLOW SEEN FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE WEAK RIDGING ALONG THE
WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN DETAIL BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER
TROF APPROACHING THE AREA TUE/WED. DF



Dennis

[weatherlover427]

I think this forecaster had a bit of fun with the AFD.

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH SOCAL WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10 INCH. EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE FOR A DRY DAY WED BEFORE A WEAK WAVE AND A LITTLE MOISTURE SNEAKS INTO SOCAL WED NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE SMALL POPS FOR THAT THING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOCAL THU EVE AND THROUGH FRI. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM GFS IS MORE NORTH AND MORE INLAND...SO RAINFALL ESTIMATES MAY NEED TO BROUGHT DOWN A LITTLE. BUT SINCE THE MODEL HAS YET TO FOCUS ON A CONSISTENT SOLUTION...WILL NOT YO YO THE FORECAST AND STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL START ABOVE RESORT LEVELS THU THEN DROP TO LOCALLY BELOW 4000 FEET BY FRI. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO A FOOT AT THE MOST. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM MAINLY THU NIGHT AND FRI AND MAINLY IN THE MTNS. ANOTHER NEW GFS SOLUTION IS A WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRI NIGHT THAT MAY KEEP SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING. BUT AGAIN WILL NOT FOLLOW EVERY WIND OF CHANGE THAT EACH MODEL RUN COMES UP WITH AND WILL KEEP THE END OF SHOWERS LATE FRI. STILL LOOKS DRY AND COOL FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PRETTY SERIOUS LOOKING SYSTEM SWOOPS INTO SOCAL MON NIGHT AND TUE.