NOAA'S final outlook for winter=Do you agree or not?

[cycloneye]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2003/s2142.htm

It shows a variable climate of events around the US in the winter months from very cold temps to wet conditions and dry weather warm in other parts of the US so it will be a wild winter in terms of the temperature swings and about the precipitation.What are the opinions from all about what noaa is forecasting for winter?

[cycloneye]

Dennis your area the SW will be a dry one and a warm one this winter as you haved said before.

[azsnowman]

YUP.......I've been watching the wildlife, elk, deer, antelope etc, etc and so far, they are right on the money! AH WELL........the fire danger is ALREADY at Moderate, can you BELIEVE that??? Fire danger in DECEMBER, the only place left to burn up is Pinetop, anyone know a good place to move "LOL!"

Dennis

[verycoolnin]

What are the opinions from all about what noaa is forecasting for winter?

HAH, that's about as general as you can get.

It shows a variable climate of events around the US in the winter months from very cold temps to wet conditions and dry weather warm in other parts of the US so it will be a wild winter in terms of the temperature swings and about the precipitation.

[RNS]

In general i disagree...i think the warmth as indicated by their temperature outlook is too expansive...and should be confined just to the southwest US...the core of the cold should be expanded further northwest than what it is to include most of lakes and northeast. Equal chances should be introduced across the midwest northern rockies and pacific nothwest.

[verycoolnin]

well, i didnt even look at the map I just read the statement and though (sarcasm) "wow, really? in some places it will be cold and wet and in others it will be warm and dry? that's going out on a limb."

[weatherlover427]

*clears throat and steps up on soapbox*

Why do they always end up predicting above average temps and below normal rainfall for the Southwest? It almost never happens that way. Last winter they did the same thing and we had a normal winter rainfall wise here (poured like crazy in December and February). I have seen this year after year, month after month; and it only verifies in the summertime. I cannot wait for the day when the CPC gets the forecast right for once.

[RNS]

well, i didnt even look at the map I just read the statement and though (sarcasm) "wow, really? in some places it will be cold and wet and in others it will be warm and dry? that's going out on a limb."

This IMO is not really even a forecast...its more of a probability scheme.

[Stormsfury]

well, i didnt even look at the map I just read the statement and though (sarcasm) "wow, really? in some places it will be cold and wet and in others it will be warm and dry? that's going out on a limb."

This IMO is not really even a forecast...its more of a probability scheme.

A probability scheme is more like it ... unfortunately, it's something (like myself as an amateur) would be able to post on a map ...

[RNS]

well, i didnt even look at the map I just read the statement and though (sarcasm) "wow, really? in some places it will be cold and wet and in others it will be warm and dry? that's going out on a limb."

This IMO is not really even a forecast...its more of a probability scheme.

A probability scheme is more like it ... unfortunately, it's something (like myself as an amateur) would be able to post on a map ...

You can create a MUCH better forecast (while blindfolded and hogtied) than that which is displayed above SF.

[Stormsfury]

You can create a MUCH better forecast (while blindfolded and hogtied) than that which is displayed above SF.

Thanks ...

[Stephanie]

well, i didnt even look at the map I just read the statement and though (sarcasm) "wow, really? in some places it will be cold and wet and in others it will be warm and dry? that's going out on a limb."

This IMO is not really even a forecast...its more of a probability scheme.

A probability scheme is more like it ... unfortunately, it's something (like myself as an amateur) would be able to post on a map ...

You can create a MUCH better forecast (while blindfolded and hogtied) than that which is displayed above SF.

- I agree!

Joshua - unfortunately the SW is in a drought pattern that doesn't look like it wants to let up anytime soon.

[Valkhorn]

I agree too. NOAA usually goes by El Nino or the SOI and that's it. According to them the NAO or Arctic Oscillation index is "too difficult to forecast"

Why not go out on a limb? Why not do actual departure from normal temp maps?

Probabilities are just awkward.

[Stormsfury]

Yeah ...

What the map WOULD imply is the following ...

1) possible +PNA pattern
2) Likely holding to general El Niño conditions as a forecast
3) I'll have near record warmth for that timeframe in the Southeast...

SF

[cycloneye]

I agree too. NOAA usually goes by El Nino or the SOI and that's it. According to them the NAO or Arctic Oscillation index is "too difficult to forecast"

Why not go out on a limb? Why not do actual departure from normal temp maps?

Probabilities are just awkward.

Agree with you about noaa not going on a limb with that winter outlook.They only generalize what will happen during the winter.

[azsnowman]

well, i didnt even look at the map I just read the statement and though (sarcasm) "wow, really? in some places it will be cold and wet and in others it will be warm and dry? that's going out on a limb."

This IMO is not really even a forecast...its more of a probability scheme.

A probability scheme is more like it ... unfortunately, it's something (like myself as an amateur) would be able to post on a map ...

You can create a MUCH better forecast (while blindfolded and hogtied) than that which is displayed above SF.

- I agree!

Joshua - unfortunately the SW is in a drought pattern that doesn't look like it wants to let up anytime soon.

Amen Stephanie.......our latest tree ring study from a 256 year old Ponderosa Pine shows a 40 year pattern of drought setting up. It cracks me up when the NWS/NOAA takes averages from the past 100 years and says it's the "Warmest year on record!" "Phhhft!" What does THAT mean, tree ring studies are ALMOST 100% right on the money, no, you CAN'T tell the actual temp BUT...you CAN tell the amount of moisture received in certain years.

Dennis

[Stephanie]

Dennis - I remember Steve "Askalhuna" (spelling?), mentioned that these periods of drought in the Southwest last 16 years or more and it's due to a positive Pacific Oscillation trend.

[Guest]

No suprises here. More or less what i expected of them for the most part. Anyways most have seen my winter outlook which im sticking with so thats my answer to what i think of this!

[roarusdogus]

What irritates me is that these are highly qualifies mets making these forecasts(if you can even call them that). Yet, in their discussions they act like they as stupid as a bag of rocks. Basically they always say, "well if there is no pacific signal we are just too dumb to know what will happen. There is no way any other signal can be looked at. We better paint most of the country warm because if we act like we might think it's going to be cold somewhere we will lose funding for the studying of man made global warming that we know is false but HA HA we fooled them. So, we'll just keep our agenda going". That pretty much sums it up IMO.

[vbhoutex]

Even though I do not like "bashing" the NOAA or NWS(and I'm not saying you did, I think you have hit on a good point Roarusdog. Of course they would deny till hell froze over(hey I've seen a picture where it did), but it reallly makes you wonder why they would put out a totally generic forecast that of course has a great chance at verification since it is so broad in scope. I would hope for a more "professional" detailed analysis such as the ones we recieve here.