Global Canadian Model

[WEATHERGURU]

Look at the new Global Canadian model for 00Z on the 25th of December it has 979 low over extreme northwest PA. Your thoughts?

[montrealboy]

[RNS]

thanks again...

[Upslope]

That is actually a very plausible scenerio based on some of the other model data I am looking at Tonight.

The 84hs ETA looks very similar to the Canadian at 84hrs and implies a similar scenerio. The OZ GFS is coming around to showing more and more in the way of cold air potential for next weeks storm. While it still takes the storm through the south and develops a low off the coast of the Carolinas, the ol SE bias of the GFS is to blame. Correction of that model argues for an initial low running into the OV or lakes with perhaps a fairly deep closed low in the OV and secondary development across the apps!

This is something that has been batted around by several, including myself. I like this scenerio as it fits the pattern! The OV and lakes may very well have a decent shot at a good snowfall for Christmas!!!!

[Guest]

That is actually a very plausible scenerio based on some of the other model data I am looking at Tonight.

The 84hs ETA looks very similar to the Canadian at 84hrs and implies a similar scenerio. The OZ GFS is coming around to showing more and more in the way of cold air potential for next weeks storm. While it still takes the storm through the south and develops a low off the coast of the Carolinas, the ol SE bias of the GFS is to blame. Correction of that model argues for an initial low running into the OV or lakes with perhaps a fairly deep closed low in the OV and secondary development across the apps!

This is something that has been batted around by several, including myself. I like this scenerio as it fits the pattern! The OV and lakes may very well have a decent shot at a good snowfall for Christmas!!!!

Yep i agree as i stated in my thread related to this system! And as was the case with the DEC 5TH storm the ETA was first (Before the GFS) to catch on to the rest of the models and the storm.

So now you have this model, the ECMWF, ETA and the Euro showing this!

[WEATHERGURU]

The latest UKMET and 6Z GFS are in very close agreement with the global canadian model. What your thoughts?

[Steve H.]

Think the models are hosed to some degree, in fact some are pre-hosed. Think we'll see secondary development next Wednesday, bombing out in eastern canada, then the cold comes for the mid-west and east. GFS at 6z underplays the cold after new years IMO. HOWEVER, if history of a few past winters means something, when Florida is cold, the NE is warmer. Florida is cold right now, so we'll se if the pattern changes during the next 10 days. Typically Florida gets cold frontal passages that are followed by quick warmups. Not the case right now....staying cold. But we shall see. Don't give up on a colder solution late next week in the NE. Walt Drag also mentions this today , but with the euro and UKMET showing a mid west storm and the GFS more progressive in the op runs, the answer is usually somewhere in between. Bottom line is, models are often slow picking up on pattern changes ands blocking, so there's a wide swing of solutions. If we get the beginnings pattern change it will be late next week; if not, the east may be doomed I hope we get the change. Its too darn cold down here

[Guest]

The latest UKMET and 6Z GFS are in very close agreement with the global canadian model. What your thoughts?

Agreed. And i will also point out that the ETA is picking up on the excat same thing if you compare it to the others at the 84 hr time frame.

My thoughts remain unchanged on this system which is gonna dump alot of snow on us WEATHERGURU!!!!!

Now the 12z has begun its run. Cant wait to see what that says. (I hope-Gulp ) lol

[WEATHERGURU]

Looks like the gfs has a supressed look on the track of the low thru 132 hours. What are you thoughts?

[Guest]

Looks like the gfs has a supressed look on the track of the low thru 132 hours. What are you thoughts?

Intresting. Well actually scarey because this is exactly how i have been expecting this model to handle the system. Whats even more suprising i see that HPC has picked up on this as well. Seems the 06z and the 18z to a degree have the low going up thru central OH and the 12z and the 00z has it close to the coast but inland and trending that way.

Which if you ask me i would take the middle road which means as i have been saying all along a track right up the Apps to western PA near OH Line and over Erie and into se Canada stalling!

Will be very intresting to see what the ECMWF, GGEM, And the Euro says. On a side note the ETA has not budged much.

This IMO is still a Lower lakes/OH Valley snowstorm! More or less my thoughts still havent changed!!!!!!

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey king your track is similar to the Gem from last night right? So do you theing the ETA is come in line with the rest of the models i.e.(UKMET, GEM)?Thanks...