Tropical Cyclone 05P Debbie forms...

[Typhoon_Willie]

in the Arafura sea north of Austrailia. Looks to reach hurricane strength in 48 hours!


WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/180851Z DEC 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 9.7S6 135.3E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KT
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S6 135.3E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 9.8S7 135.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 10.1S2 135.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 10.5S6 135.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 10.9S0 135.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.7S6 135.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181641Z1 AMSU
AND 181730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 KNOTS. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS ENHANCED EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WINDS BALANCE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES WEAKEN AND A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST. TC 05P
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW. THEREFORE, INTENSIFICATION AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z8 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
180851Z DEC 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 180900). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.//

NNNN

[Anonymous]

Not posting discussions or anything (at least not at the moment) but I decided to post a graphic.

http://independentwx.com/SW0520031.JPG

[Anonymous]

Unless the model consensus changes this should be a good radar link once Debbie begins to move inland...