White Christmas in the Deep South???

PTrackerLA · #21 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:47 pm

It looks like the model runs have changed big time...no white Christmas for the deep south

#22 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 1:48 pm

A New Orleans Met posted on a message board about the possibility of arctic air after Xmas into the New Year holiday. So, hang in there if you want some cold air.

#23 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:14 pm

gboudx wrote:A New Orleans Met posted on a message board about the possibility of arctic air after Xmas into the New Year holiday. So, hang in there if you want some cold air.

I agree...however though it will most likely be closer to the first of the new year.

This idea has quite a bit of support from the GFS ensembles

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21800.html

as one can tell...the GFS ensembels develop STRONG PNA ridge along the west coast of north america...in what is a highly amplified pattern...the resulant action would force the development of a DEEP trough in the eastern part of the country...weak troughing noted across europe at 384 hrs and rising heights near the caspian at the end of the period would support this.

notice also how the flow remains split across the pacific (signal for continued storminess)...keeping the pattern very interesting as we head into '04. With plenty of cold air to go around there will be LOTS of oppertunities formore wintery wx across the central and eastern US...though this time further south??

#24 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:37 pm

Thanks RNS.

Lindaloo · #25 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 2:42 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:It looks like the model runs have changed big time...no white Christmas for the deep south

AW RATS!!! **throws temper tantrum** LOL!!

GAStorm · #26 Postby **GAStorm** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:03 pm

Thanks for the info RNS! January is always the best month for snow here, so we will wait and see what happens.

Valkhorn · #27 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:37 pm

The GFS could always swing back around though

#28 Postby **RNS** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 3:59 pm

Valkhorn wrote:The GFS could always swing back around though

The OPGFS (operational GFS) run will waffle quite a bit which is why i focused on the implication of the ENSEMBELS and NOT what the operational 12z run was depicting.

The 0z and 12z GFS Ensembels display MUCH more run-to-run consistency and MR skill than the 0z and 12z operational GFS runs.

Guest · #29 Postby **Guest** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:03 pm

RNS wrote:
Valkhorn wrote:The GFS could always swing back around though

The OPGFS (operational GFS) run will waffle quite a bit which is why i focused on the implication of the ENSEMBELS and NOT what the operational 12z run was depicting.

The 0z and 12z GFS Ensembels display MUCH more run-to-run consistency and MR skill than the 0z and 12z operational GFS runs.

You mind visiting my thread and sharing some thoughts???? Thanks!

#30 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 4:41 pm

Our 10 to 14 day forecast here has temps with high's in the upper 30's to lower 40's and low's in the lower to upper 20's with a two nights in the teens.......I LIKE

verycoolnin · #31 Postby **verycoolnin** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 6:43 pm

Actually, 850mb is roughly about 4,400 ft ...

why would they make temps for 4,400 feet up?

PTrackerLA · #32 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 7:13 pm

Seems like the past few years we've had an arctic outbreak around new years...2 of the years we even had snow on 12/31/00-1/1/01 and 1/1/02.

weatherfan · #33 Postby **weatherfan** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 8:23 pm

anlog 1979-80 anybodey? As HM message on the other board this may well be a winter with a combernation of all three anlogs 1958-59,1960,61,and 1979-80.Only time will tell.

Stormsfury · #34 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Dec 18, 2003 8:34 pm

verycoolnin wrote:
Actually, 850mb is roughly about 4,400 ft ...
why would they make temps for 4,400 feet up?

A lot of reasons verycoolnin ...

1) Measure of extrapolating temperatures to the surface, generally using about +5-10C during the winter, and +20-25 during the summer on generally fair weather conditions
2) Also a good indicator during icestorm setups of where an icestorm COULD setup using thickness schemes and 850c temperatures with much interpretation.
3) Severe parameters for potentially large hail (low FRZ heights)

And this is just the start ...

SF

#35 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Dec 19, 2003 2:05 pm

weatherfan wrote:anlog 1979-80 anybodey? As HM message on the other board this may well be a winter with a combernation of all three anlogs 1958-59,1960,61,and 1979-80.Only time will tell.

I'm not sure I want a '79-'80 analog. If I remember correctly that was one of the coldest times we've ever seen in Houston. 2x during the 32 years I've lived in Houston we have had 2-3 day runs of below freezing temps and I think 1979-1980 winter was one of them. I know this would be nothing for my Northern friends, but to us it is way past brutal to get something like that.

White Christmas in the Deep South???

Who is online