any chance of a white christmas??

[wx247]

my local mets are saying for my area in NE ohio that there is not a good chance of a white christmas, does anyone know if theres a chance there will be here??

Northeast Ohio December 25 2003 - Sunny...EXTREMELY warm and dry with blowing dust. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 MPH. Probability of snow 0%.

I disagree on the blowing dust ... ground moisture too high for blowing dust, however the high temperatures need to be adjusted down to the lower 90's, maybe mid-90's with heat indices running between 100º-105º. Will coordinate for possibilities of a heat advisory.

SF

How are wind profiles for this area? The GMFS is mentioning chance of storms for this area. That is something to monitor as well...especially since the 26Z EFTA seems to be trending in that direction, too.

[RNS]

my local mets are saying for my area in NE ohio that there is not a good chance of a white christmas, does anyone know if theres a chance there will be here??

Northeast Ohio December 25 2003 - Sunny...EXTREMELY warm and dry with blowing dust. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 MPH. Probability of snow 0%.

I disagree on the blowing dust ... ground moisture too high for blowing dust, however the high temperatures need to be adjusted down to the lower 90's, maybe mid-90's with heat indices running between 100º-105º. Will coordinate for possibilities of a heat advisory.

SF

Ah...ground moisture...didint consider that...

AFTR COORD W/ PBZ AND BUF WL BE ISSUING HEAT ADV AND FOR ENTIRE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEG LKLY XMAS DAY.

[tomboudreau]

Now...wouldn't you all flip if this one day happened? All I want is good traveling weather on Tuesday..after Tuesday...I dont care what happens as I will be safely in my spot...well, I do hope everyone else has good travel weather as well. Stay safe everyone

[RNS]

Now...wouldn't you all flip if this one day happened?

dont hold your breath on that one...lol.

[Stormsfury]

Now...wouldn't you all flip if this one day happened? All I want is good traveling weather on Tuesday..after Tuesday...I dont care what happens as I will be safely in my spot...well, I do hope everyone else has good travel weather as well. Stay safe everyone

Yeah, I would ...

1) The global warming rumors would actually be true...
2) The sun's about to encompass the earth after turning into a red giant
3) An asteroid, comet, or meteor just struck Earth
4) Everyone ate Taco Bell at precisely the same time and released a catastrophic rush of methane.

[Snow Plow]

my local mets are saying for my area in NE ohio that there is not a good chance of a white christmas, does anyone know if theres a chance there will be here??

Any chance you will be the last person to post such a thread?

[Playballgt14]

im soo sry everyone ok, i just want to know if theres a chance of a white christmas because i dream for one every year ok. all u guys dont have to hate me for that and ban me just cuz i said "GD", im very sry

[Lindaloo]

Actually saying God's name in vain is a very good reason for banning you. Your "just because" statement does not set well with me.

[Playballgt14]

i've very sry for my extreme actions

[Dr Spectrum]

my local mets are saying for my area in NE ohio that there is not a good chance of a white christmas, does anyone know if theres a chance there will be here??

Northeast Ohio December 25 2003 - Sunny...EXTREMELY warm and dry with blowing dust. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 MPH. Probability of snow 0%.

How about a "Blowing Mud Advisory"?

Or, better yet, since we have had soooo much water a "Falling Tree Warning".

[GalvestonDuck]

Grrrr...I'm glad I missed it. Saying GD to address me is one thing because everyone knows what we're talking about. But saying it in the other context can grate on alot of nerves and offend quite a few.

[Dr Spectrum]

Now, if Christmas was in the summer months and there was a chance of severe weather for the 25th (like the chance we have for snow right now) I would place my bets on the forecast now. It seems that the technology for making forecasts in advance for severe weather has come a long way in the past few years. BUT, winter weather always has been lagging behind. Really, Hurricane forecasting is VERY good, Severe Weather is very good, why not Winter Storms? My guess is there are WAY too many factors that need to come together just at the right time to make a winter storm produce the effects "Wanted", not needed.

So, from the above, I have just given myself away as an offical "Weenie"

BTW: I'm so very glad to see sooo many Prof. Mets HERE at Storm2K. With the war between the two at WWBB (You know who I'm talking about) it's nice to be able to read the actual forecasts/analysis's of up coming storm systems and not have to read between the flames. It feels like the friendly neighborhood park, where everyone gets together and has "FUN"!!

One other reason for coming here: Storm2K is more "USA" weather than "The NE, MA" weather that WWBB is. I still like it there BUT to get the low down on at least the weather for my (and others) areas THIS is the place to be.

Thanks to all of the METS (BOTH Prof and Aspiring) here at Storm2K to lend their helping hands to us poor folk West of the Apps.

[vbhoutex]

Dr. Spectrum,

WEENIES WELCOME AT STORM2K!!! Ya gotta start somewhere to learn the weather and "weenie" is as good a place as any!!!!

Thanks for the kudos!! We are striving at S2k to be a weather site for everyone, not just one area of the country. WW is definitely a good weather site, especially for the NE and MA if you don't mind reading between the flames. They have some incredibly good mets there, as do we, just with a wider focus. As usual, I say to each his own. This is not a war of whose is best but a fun and hopefully educational experience for all.

I find your analysis of the differences in the forecasting for different seasons interesting, and probably right on. You are so right that there are many more, or so it seems, parameters to deal with for winter weather. I know it has been(is) much more of a challenge for me to forecast winter weather than it is to do tropical forecasting, even though they both have theire anamolies that can end up throwing what you thought was a good forecast right out the window.

[therock1811]

I read this thread Tueday...I'm not too happy about the swear word you used...I happen to have been offended, and if I hadn't controlled my anger when I read this, I woulda gone off...it took a lot to not get mad...

[verycoolnin]

This is interesting the NWS is predicting rain and lows in the mid 30s for chirstmas eve night. That's still 5 days away and the forecast could change over to snow, hopefully.

[verycoolnin]

Check this out, it shows that a cold front should move through and after that a low preasure system may be riding up the coast bringing snow to SE virginia on Christmas. It's too far away but it's interesting

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/6e/mrf_pres_6e_inv.html