My 2004 prediction...

[Anonymous]

At the end of every season, I make a totally unofficial prediction on where I think next years storms will go ect. For example here was last year's 2003 prediction for Isabel:

Tropical Storm Isabel
Sept 16-20, 2003
Max winds: 70 mph
989 MB
Makes landfall near Ft. Walton Beach, Fl just below hurricane strength.

Okay, I was a little bit off, but it was just a fun prediction and you can reply to this by posting your predictions. Just to remind, unofficial, not to be alarmist.

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2004:

Hurricane Alex
May 12-15
80 Mph
984 MB
Sub-Tropical Storm Alex forms SSE of Bermuda with 50 mph winds and slowly moves NNE strengthening to a 70 knot hurricane as it slides into the North Atlantic.

TS Bonnie
June 2-14
70 Mph
987 MB
Landfall: Silver Shores, FL (65 mph)
Stalls near Andros Island for a week and finally moves inland near Ft. Lauderdale. Does very little damage.

H Charley
June 17-29
135 Mph
940 MB
Landfalls: Belize City, Belize (40 mph), Veracruz, MX (135 mph)
Quickly strengthens just as it hits Belize, crawls into the Bay of Campeche and explodes into a hurricane, threatens Texas as a potential category 4, but hits Veracruz at 135 mph.

TS Danielle
July 2-16
70 Mph
990 MB
Landfall: St. Croix (65 mph)
Spends many days crossing the south Atlantic ocean while shear keeps it from becoming a hurricane. Just before it hit's the islands and interacts with Puerto Rico, it almost becomes a hurricane, but shoots out to sea before it can.

H Earl
July 16- Aug 12
175 Mph
914 MB
Landfalls: Barbados (100 Mph), Kingston, Jamacia (120 mph), Bay Of Pigs, Cuba (130 mph), Cameron Parish, LA (175 mph)
The big one for 2004. It's long track ends with a 4 day stall south of Alabama, and then a terrifying increase from 140 mph to 170 mph in the 18 hours before and until landfall in Louisiana at 175 mph.

H Francis
July 17-23
100 mph
974 MB
Landfall: Dekie Beach, FL
Strengthens into an average hurricane and makes a minimal category 2 landfall near Steinhatchee, FL. Damage modest.

H Gaston
Aug 3- Aug 23
120 mph
956 MB
Stays out in open ocean.

H Hermine
Aug 19- Sept 1
140 mph
938 MB
Turns in between Martinique and St. Lucia and scrapes Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm.

H Ivan
Sept 1-15
150 Mph
930 MB
Landfall: Money Island Beach, NC (120 mph)
A storm as tiny as the 1935 hurricane, Ivan strengthens to 150 mph North of the Turks and Cacios Islands, and weakens to a category 3 by landfall near Morehead City, NC.

H Jeanne
Sept 8-14
85 mph
980 MB
Landfall: Coquina Gables, FL
A slow moving storm that gives MASSIVE rains from Key West to Charleston, and makes a windy landfall near St. Augustine, FL.

H Karl
Sept 21- Oct 1
90 mph
975 MB
Landfall: San Juan, Puerto Rico (80 mph), Belize City, Belize (90 mph)
A storm that originates SSW of the Azores moves SW at 10 mph hitting San Juan as a modest sized category 1 storm, curves west at 12 mph and weakens to 75 mph as it moves, and trys to become a major hurricane as it makes landfall as a strong category 1 in Belize.

TS Lisa
Oct 12-18
60 mph
995 MB
Forms off Bahamas and does a loop moving NE, then South, then SW then NW, then NNE until it's death in the North Atlantic.

TS Matthew
Oct 27- Nov 1
50 mph
999 MB
Landfall: Tybee Island, GA
Forms near Andros Island and moves north and hits on Halloween near Tybee Island, GA.

TS Nicole
Nov 14-19
70 mph
998 MB
Almost becomes a hurricane as it slides just east of Bermuda.

H Otto
Nov 15-30
150 Mph
931 MB
Landfall: Pinar del Rio, Cuba (150 mph), Summerland Key, FL (100 Mph)
A last minute surprise for the end of the 2004 hurricane season.

To sum up:

15 Named storms
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes

US landfalls:

Bonnie- TS - FL
Earl- Cat.5 -LA
Francis- Cat.2 -FL
Ivan- Cat.3 -NC
Jeanne- Cat.1 -FL
Matthew- TS -GA
Otto- Cat.2- FL

So, that is my prediction for 2004. Comments welcomed, and it took me hours to type this. Feel free to post your unofficial predictions as a reply as well.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, an F storm by the end of July. There's never been an E by the end! It seems plausible, though, especially Earl. We are doomed to get a catastropic catagory five, and it could happen at any time. Here's how I see it.

Tropical Storm Alex- May 28-June 4th
Peak: 50
It starts in the Northeastern Atlantic southwest of the Azores and moves slowly west as a Subtropical Storm. Tropical Characteristics are gradually attained. It reaches its peak on the 30th, but soon encounters cooler waters and becomes a T.D. Somewhat warmer waters approach the system on the 3rd, and it reaches storm strength again, but a front soon comes, and it turns Alex northward. On the 5th, Alex is absorbed by the front 350 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Hurricane Bonnie- June 9-10 13-18th
Peak: 95
Landfalls: Bluefields, Nicuragua (90 M.P.H.)
It starts east of the islands, and moved quickly westward, attaining storm strength late on the 9th. Upper winds weren't too favorable for development. On the 10th, while just 200 miles east of the islands, it opens up to a Tropical Wave, while still having winds of 40 miles per hour. The storm strengthens as a wave, but without a center. It brings gusty winds to the islands, and brief rain, and moves into the Caribbean. The wave slowed down a little, and reorganized again to become a Storm on the 13th, then located in the western Caribbean. The storm rapidly strengthened, and became a hurricane on the 14th. It became a catagory 2 storm, but soon hit Nicuragua as an 90 M.P.H. hurricane. The storm continued to move west, and stays a Tropical Storm over. Bonnie continued in the Pacific, but moved inland near the Gulf of Tuanapec as Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Tropical Depression 3- June 28-30
Landfall: Key Largo, Florida (30 M.P.H.)
3 forms in the Yucutan Channel and moves slowly northeast. It dissipates over the Florida Peninsula, but the renmants brings rain up through North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Charlie- July 13-18
Peak: 60
Landfalls: Mississippi River Delta (45 M.P.H.), Holiday, Florida (60 M.P.H.)
Charlie forms in the Middle of the Gulf of Mexico in response to a Tropical Wave interacting to a Frontal Zone, similar to this year's Larry. Charlie moved quickly northward, but stalled near the coast of Louisiana, and moved eastward. After moving through Florida, it dissipated due to strong shear from Danielle (see below).

Hurricane Danielle- July 12-22
Peak: 115
Landfalls: South Nova Scotia (50)
Danielle forms east of the islands, and briefly threatens them, but soon, she moves more northwest, as a Tropical Depression. Cool water inhibits any development, but when it reached north of Puerto Rico conditions were very favorable and Danielle rapidly strengthened. On the 17th, it became a hurricane, and just 12 hours it became a major hurricane. Watches and Warnings were issued for the Eastern Seaboard, but with Charlie and the Cold Front, Danielle turned northward and weakened.

Tropical Depression 6- July 19-20
Tropical Depression 6 formed in the east Atlantic, the furthest east for any Tropical System in July, but its short life ended due to shear.

More to come... Too lazy to finish now.

[bahamaswx]

I see no logic and/or purpose to any of this. It's not even an "educated guess".

[Hurricanehink]

It's just for fun. Nex year's Alantic hurricane season is far away, so we have to do something. Systems in the South Pacific and the Indian ocean are good, but not enough. These are just for fun.

[Anonymous]

Hey Hink, so far yiour forecast sounds good, post the rest.

[Hurricanehink]

Thanks Here's some of the rest. This takes a while!

Hurricane Earl- August 2-11
Peak: 140
Earl is another subtropical wanderer. Earl forms within a large upper low as a Subtropical Storm, rather atypical for August. It moves slowly northwest in the eastern atlantic, but soon a front comes and pushes it southeastward to its starting position on the 4th. The storm continues to move southeastward, gradually becoming better organized. On the 6th, then located well to the northwest of the Cape Verde islands, Earl became Tropical, and became a hurricane later that day. While continuing to move around a very large loop, Earl moved westward, then northwestward, still intensifying at a good pace. It became a major hurricane on the 8th, and reached its peak on the 9th, but moved more northerly, then northeasterly, losing its strength. On the 10th, it crossed near its starting position, and became extratropical the next day 200 miles southwest of the Azores.

Hurricane Frances- August 8-12
Peak: 80
Landfalls: North Bahamas (70), Cape Canaveral (80), Panama City Florida
(50)
Frances originated from a Tropical Wave that moved west-northwest across the open Atlantic. Development was inhibited by powerful Hurricane Earl, but with Earl moving east, the wave could move more westerly. It became more organized on the 7th, 200 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and a depression formed the next day. Tropical Storm status was attained 6 hours later, and hurricane status 6 hours after that. Frances became a little less organized, and weakened to Tropical Storm status. The storm moved across the Bahamas, and strengthened again to a hurricane, reaching its peak on the 10th. Late on the 10th, Frances hit Florida near Cape Canaveral, and weakened over land. While in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm did not strengthen, rather weakened due to the disruption of the inner core. It moved more northward, and hit land agaiin. The storm was absorbed by a cold front over Georgia on the 12th.

Hurricane Gaston- August 14-21
Peak: 100
Gaston was a typical Cape Verde storm. As the wave moved off the coast of Africa, it immediately organized, and a Tropical Depression formed on the 14th, 500 miles southeast of Cape Verde islands. The depression moved rapidly westward, but maintained a well defined circulation. On the 16th, it became Tropical Storm Gaston, and hurricane status was attained on the 17th. The steering currents forced Gaston northwestward into marginally favorablly water temperatures (cooled by Hurricane Earl). It gradually got to it peak on the 19th, but was later absorbed by the same cold front that absorbed Frances.

More later

[Josephine96]

Nothing wrong with having a little fun, now that we are officially in the offseason lol

[Anonymous]

I really hope so John. Hink, anything after Gaston?

[Hurricanehink]

Yes, there's more, and I'll try to finish it next time.

Tropical Storm Hermine- September 1-11
Peak: 60
Landfall: Chorpus Christi, TX (55)
On the 30th of August, a tropical wave enters the Caribbean, while a previous circulation without any convection lays in the central Gulf. The two interact, and on the 1st of September, the circulation enters the wave, and a Tropical Depression is born in the Bay of Campeche. The depression moves slowly northeast, but turns more towards the west on the 4th. Finally, on the 5th, the depression becomes Tropical Storm Hermine. Still moving very slowly, Hermine has a lot of time to strengthen. It gradually reaches its peak on the 8th, located 200 miles southeast of Chorpus Christi, but soon, it weakens a little. It moves faster, and made landfall late on the 9th. The storm rapidly weakens, and the storm dissipates on the 11th in central Texas.

Hurricane Ivan- September 5-21
Peak: 150
Landfall: Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (130), Asbury Park, New Jersey (80)
Ivan begins its long life off the coast of Africa. A wave exits the coast of Africa on the 2nd, and by the 5th, enough of a circulation exists for it to be classified as a Tropical Depression. It strengthens, and Ivan is born that day. Ivan moves briskly northwestward towards very warm water east of the islands. Between the 7th to the 9th, in 18 hours, Ivan goes from a 60 M.P.H. storm to a 115 M.P.H. Major Hurricane. The storm continues to intensify, but misses the islands. Ivan was due to hit the northern islands, but just 2 days before it would have it, Ivan moved more northwesterly. In the Sargasso Sea, The Eastern Seaboard is worried about a 145 M.P.H. hurricane on the 12th. Shortly thereafter, Ivan reaches its peak of 150, but begins to weaken. On the 14th, while just 500 miles southeast of South Carolina, Ivan stalls, and does a very tight loop. Ivan goes down to 130 M.P.H. winds, but approaches the coast more quickly due to a front from the west and high pressure system in the east. On the 17th, Ivan landfalls near Myrtle Beach, and moves northerly through the Carolinas. On the 18th, with winds of 80 M.P.H. Ivan moves northeastward, and exits the coast of Virginia on the 19th. On the 20th, though, the front outrides the storm, and Ivan stalls again, this time off the New Jersey coast. Waters are warm, though, and the high moves westward, forcing Ivan into New Jersey as a 80 M.P.H. hurricane, the first hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1903. The storm moves northward again, and dissipates over New York on the 21st. Damage is high, and this is the storm of the season.

Tropical Storm Jeanne- September 14-16
Peak: 50
Jeanne is an African storm, but had an unusual track. A wave moved off the coast of Africa on the 8th, but with Ivan to the west, the wave went northward. It had various attempts to become a storm, but every time, the convection died down. On the 14th, though, another flare up occurred, and this time, it stayed. A tropical depression formed 700 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, or 900 miles southwest of the Azores (close to Danny this year). The depression moved northward, and became a tropical storm on the 15th. Cool waters are nearby, and Jeanne rapidly dies off. Note: Fish storm.

Tropical Storm Karl- September 17-21
Peak: 65
Landfall: East nicaragua (35), Monkey River Town, belize (65)
While most of the Tropics were watching Ivan, a small storm was brewing in the Caribbean. The ITCZ was very active in the middle of September, and a storm formed out of one on the 17th while located just east of nicaragua. The depression moves inland, but retains its composure. When it moves into the Gulf of Honduras, though, it intensifies at a good rate. After moving northwest for most of its lifetime, it was now moving westward. On the 20th, it becomes Tropical Storm Karl, and it reaches its peak on the 21st. The storm then moves over land again, and dissipates over central America, though some of the system becomes Hurricane Madeline in the EPAC.

Hurricane Lisa- September 30-October 10
Peak: 100
Landfall: Various of the islands in the Lesser antilles, Southern Puerto Rico
A tropical wave moves off the coast of Africa on the 20th, and on the 30th, a depression forms 400 miles east of the islands. It rapidly intensifys, and a hurricane is there on October 2. Lisa moves over the islands rather quickly, and hits southern Puerto Rico as a strong Catagory 1 hurricane on the 4th. Lisa moves northeastward after PI, and gets stronger. On the 5th, it reaches its peak strength, but upper level winds soon inhibit any development. Lisa becomes rapidly extratropical on the 6th, but remains a significant extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. It stays until the 10th, when it makes one final landfall: Spain. Afterwards it is no longer tracable.

Just 3 more storms to come.

[mf_dolphin]

Is this dartboard forecasting?

[Hurricanehink]

More or less. It's more like being blindfolded and trying to use a dartboard. Some will come near, and some are dead on, but some are way off. It's still fun to see how close you got.

[Anonymous]

Well Hink, it looks like (SO FAR) your forecast shows a slightly above average season and a monster Hugo like storm approching South Carolina. Would Ivan be small? Anyways, I am curious about what Matthew, Nicole, and Otto will do.... Also, other board members should post theirs as well, it is fun.

[bahamaswx]

More or less. It's more like being blindfolded and trying to use a dartboard. Some will come near, and some are dead on, but some are way off. It's still fun to see how close you got.

Who cares how close you got with little/no reasoning behind anything at all? More likely than not, all will be way off.

[Hurricanehink]

Floydbuster, yes, Ivan would be a fairly small system, I guess like Hurricane Andrew small. Bahamaswx, because it is fun! And now, the rest of my season.

Tropical Depression 14- October 16-19
Tropical Depression forms in the Western Atlantic along a dying cold front. Very, very gradually, the front dies away, leaving an area of convection near the Bahamas. Nearly stationary, it has plenty of time to get organized, and it did. On the 16th, 2 weeks after it first developed, a small depression formed. Upper level winds were marginally favorable, the waters were cool, and the system was stationary. 14 moves slowly eastward, but by the 19th, only 200 miles east of its starting position, the circulation dissipates. The area of convection moves a little faster towards the middle Atlantic, and becomes a Hybrid type of storm on the 24th. The feature quickly ends, too, and so ends the life of a persistant yet weak tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Matthew- November 4-10
Peak: 55
Matthew forms from a Tropical Wave in the Tropical Atlantic, unheard of for the month of November. On the 31st of October, a wave moves off the coast of Africa, but dies rapidly. Convection redevelops on the 3rd, and a depression forms on the 4th 1000 miles east of the islands. Shear is unfavorable, but the system strengthens into a storm on the 5th. Matthew moves under a favorable area, and rapidly reaches its peak of 55 M.P.H. Almost as soon as it strengthens does it encounter very unfavorable shear, ripping apart the system completly on the 8th. The wave reaches the islands on the 10th, bringing rain and winds.

Hurricane Nicole- November 11-18
Peak: 120
Nicole forms beneath a very large upper level low on the 11th of November. Already strong, Nicole strengthened rapidly in this favorable environment, and became a hurricane on the 12th, and becomes a major hurricane on the 14th, unheard of in November. Waters are unusually warm, though, helping Nicole in its history breaking event. The upper low moves northward, though, taking Nicole out of the favorable environment. Betwen the 14th at its peak and the 16th, Nicole drops to a 50 M.P.H. storm. The storm continues to weaken, moving near Bermuda on the 17th, and dies completely on the 18th.

Hurricane Otto- November 30-December 11
Peak: 90
Just as the season seemed to end, a tropical disturbance is brewing in the Caribbean. A tropical depression forms on the 30th, and it becomes Otto later that day. The system is in the western Caribbean, climatalogically unfavorable. Otto does a fairly large counter-clockwise loop in the west of Caribbean starting on December 2nd, keeping it over warm waters for a long time. On the 3rd, Otto becomes a hurricane, and keeps its strength for the time. Otto moves northward, completing its loop on the 6th. A hurricane warning was issued for Cuba and South Florida, the latest ever. Otto moves over Cuba quickly, and hits south Florida on the 8th still as a hurricane. It moves northeastward, losing tropical characteristics. The extratropical brushes the United States, bringing an early snowfall. It dissipates on the 11th.

[Anonymous]

Good forecast Hink! It sounds very possible given the active period we are NOW in. Also, if category 2 Isabel caused 3-5 Billion dollars in damage, imagine what a season like 1945 would do today:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

A Carla-like storm hitting exas then an Andrew-like storm hitting SE Florida. 140 Billion!!!

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, that would be horrible. You know what's weird, though. Since 1945, only 1948 and 1949 had 2 major hurricane U.S. landfalls, and in both 1945 and 1949, there was a Texas major hurricane and a Florida major hurricane. No other season since then had a major hurricane at landfall, so we here in the U.S. are very lucky. (Note: 1966 had one major hurricane U.S. landfall, and 2 major hurricanes that dropped to cat. 2 just before landfall). I agree, though, that that could happen again, and the damage would be in the billions.

[Anonymous]

Great forecast Hink. To bad no one else posted their thoughts on what 2004 may be like.

[Stormsfury]

Great forecast Hink. To bad no one else posted their thoughts on what 2004 may be like.

Ahem...*cough* *cough* ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=21250

*cough* *cough*

SF

[Anonymous]

I meant the forecast "PREDICTION" like Hink and I posted. Your forecast sounds very good Fury. Stick to it!!! Merry Christmas!

[cycloneye]

I posted mines too a few weeks ago.