Storm Thread for Woodbridge, VA....

[Anonymous]

Hello everyone......it's 330pm here in Woodbridge VA this cold Saturday afternoon.

We have 32 degrees, with an 8-degree dewpoint. Winds are north at 10mph, gusting to 18 mph. The winds are becoming more NE over time. Pressure is holding steady at 30.44 inches. I don't know the mb equivalent LOL (Sure, I'm a newbie lol)

We started with mostly clear skies this morning.............overnight minimum was 25 degrees/7degree DP...........cirrus began to move in by 9am.......then cirrostratus by 1030am. Clouds were moving in from the WSW as the overrunning event sets up. At 130pm, bands of altostratus slid in under the high ice overcast.......currently we are looking at an altostratus overcast......some indications of stratus/stratocumulus showing up to our WSW. Radar indicates snow virga band setting up overhead and consolidating............will take some time to moisten up with all the cold dry air overhead.......but it will moisten from the top down, I forecast the snow to begin reaching the ground at 8pm tonight.

We expect the cloud decks to continue thickening and lowering, and evaporational cooling will cool our ambient temps into the upper, possibly middle 20s with time. Our high temps today barely eked out 33 degrees........NWS forecast said 38 degrees to 40 degrees. Expect general snow accums to 1 to 3 inches by approx 4am..........subsequent mixing to sleet/ZR by 6am........and to RA by 8am local time. Rain through Sunday......possibly changing back to snow and accumulating an inch Sunday night. Tonight local snow amts could reach 4 inches in isolated locations.


Stay tuned..................I will keep updating tonight.

You might want to check up on this long loop throughout tonight.



-Jeb

[Josephine96]

You guys will be updating snow.. I'll be updating a potential severe weather event getting closer and closer..

[wx247]

Ok, Jeb. Keep us posted.

[coriolis]

That sounds like fun. I'm thinking of doing the same thing.

[Anonymous]

That sounds like fun. I'm thinking of doing the same thing.

Go ahead! I'm looking forward to it! Looks like you'd be in for about 6 to 10 inches. I'd love to read your storm thread!!



-Jeb

[Anonymous]

Comin' up on 5pm here.................



We have a stratocumulus layer just moved in, I can see really low, dark clouds to our SW, all headed our way.


Temp is holding steady at 32 degrees, as it has for most of the day, except for that one bobble up to 33 earlier this afternoon. Pressure is 30.42 and falling. Winds are NNE at 7mph gusts to 18. Dewpoint has gone up one degree to 9 degrees. EDIT: Make that a 10-degree dewpoint. Areas of snow virga are beginning to appear over central Virginia and are translating dynamically east, while generally moving NE.
Dusk is falling now.

More updates on the way.........................please stay tuned.



-Jeb

[Anonymous]

We are coming up on 7pm here.




Temps have fallen to 31 degrees, dewpoint is 10 degrees. Winds are N at 5 mph, with NE gusts to 15. Pressure is 30.44 and steady. I can look outside and see that the lowering cloud deck is reflecting a lot of street lights.

Let's check out this radar and see what's going on.

The main area of precip is translating eastward, and northeastward. Moisture is beginning to come in over South Carolina and North Carolina from the Atlantic Ocean. The baroclinic leaf (area of precipitation) is definitely on the increase and is moving generally northeastward. Over time, areas of virga are developing over Virginia and beginning to move north-northeastward. As the atmosphere moistens up and the sfc dewpoints rise in response to the moistening, snow will begin to reach the ground. I think we will begin to see flurries by 9 or 10pm EST.

I am standing by my prediction of 1 to 3 inches of snow here by 6am tomorrow morning, but I just heard one of our local forcasters say that we will get 6 inches overnight. We'll see.

Stand by, I will continue to update you through 1am local time.


This is Jeb, reporting from Dale City/Woodbridge VA.

[David]

Thanks for the update, Jeb.

[Anonymous]

Jeb here with the 840pm update.....



It's COLD, that's for sure. We have fallen to 30 degrees, and the dewpoint has come up another degree, to 11 degrees. Winds are generally NE at 7 mph, with gusts to 18. There is a pronounced easterly component to these winds. I have even observed southeasterly winds at times. That high up north must be turning on the afterburners and shooting east. Boy are we gonna get a lot of rain tomorrow. Pressure is 30.37 and dropping. The ceilings are low and reflecting the city lights. I am kind of surprised at the fact that we have dropped to 30 degrees before the snow starts. We might cool to 26 when it does start.

Let's take another gander at that radar loop, shall we?

I have been staring kind of spellbound at this 'scope for the past three hours, watching the areas of precip come together. What truly grieves me is all the heavy rain that we're gonna get tomorrow. That stabs my heart more than I can express.

Over the past three hours, the main body of precip has been translating eastward and northeastward. Moisture has been streaming in from the Atlantic over North and South Carolina and just blossoming over North Carolina and moving NNE. There are areas of virga forming over Virginia and a large area of precip is streaming NNE from North Carolina into Virginia and heading right toward my position. In northern North Carolina it changes from rain to a mix of FRZRA, sleet and snow, then to all snow near the NC/VA border. It looks like we may see some good snow from this in approximately 2 hours. We will see flurries by 10 pm or so.


I'll keep ya all updated on this, the 2nd winter storm of the season, so stay tuned!



This is Jeb, reporting from Dale City/Woodbridge, in northern Virginia.

[wx247]

Keep 'em coming Jeb.

[Lowpressure]

Jeb, I am back with you again. I have 30.4 degrees and no flurries yet It sure feels like snow and radar looks to be about 30 miles away for precip. Chilly wind with the feel of snow. Will keep updates for a while. Fredericksburg, 30 miles from Jeb's house-south.

[Anonymous]

Jeb, I am back with you again. I have 30.4 degrees and no flurries yet It sure feels like snow and radar looks to be about 30 miles away for precip. Chilly wind with the feel of snow. Will keep updates for a while. Fredericksburg, 30 miles from Jeb's house-south.

Hi there, Lowpressure!! It's great to hear from you again!



Well, it's coming up on 10pm here....................



Temperatures are holding at 30 degrees. Dewpoint is 11 degrees. Winds are decidedly E to NE at 7mph, with gusts to 19. I have observed SE winds over the past hour. I am sure this is very bad for any real winter weather tomorrow here. Pressure is 30.39 and steady.

Let's check on the new Doppler 12000 Radar lol. Look at me hyping this to the max lol. There is now a good area of moisture moving NE straight up toward me. The latest radar fix shows the edge of the snow (though it is most likely virga at this point) just south of Fredericksburg and heading NE!

You better look out, Lowpressure!!! The snow is about to overspread your position!! Get that shovel ready! I think we will probably see flurries by about 11pm, with snow by 1130pm.

We have had 5 hours of darkness and temps have been in the low 30s the entire time, so the roads will get slick. I can't wait to see the grass get covered with snow------I cut my lawn three quarters of an inch short so the snow will cover it real good!!!!

Stay tuned folks, I will continue to cover this storm into 1am this morning.


This is Jeb, reporting from Dale City/Woodbridge, VA.

[coriolis]

Watching and waiting....

[Anonymous]

It's coming up on 11pm here......




Temp: 30 degrees.
Dewpoint: Up another degree, to 12 degrees.
Winds: Becoming predominantly Easterly at 5mph, gusting to 18
Pressure: 30.47 and steady


The area of precipitation is now within 30 to 40 miles of Woodbridge.

However................there is a proverbial fly in this ointment.

Let's take a closer look at this.

If you stop this loop, you can clearly see the 'fly in the ointment' that I am referring to: We have a BIG, BIG problem Houston. The sleet/snow Line is now only 40 miles east/southeast of Woodbridge. Furthermore, the East wind is very persistent. I have observed SOUTHEASTERLY winds to 12 mph in the past 2 hours.

Being a Winter storm weather weenie has its Ups and Downs, certainly. This will definately be a big downer, you know, The thrill of victory, the agony of defeat. More like the despair of defeat, or of a gut-wrenching letdown.

That east/southeast wind will change the snow to rain before 3am here. Of that I am certain. Now I fully understand why the forecast for us was for only 1 to 2 inches. The sleet/snow line is only 40 miles to my southeast, with an east/southeast wind. Low dewpoints or not, you can't beat that mild windflow. The snow WILL change to rain, and soon, if we get snow at all.

So I am now refining my forecast to perhaps an inch of snow (if that) then rain. The snow tonight will likely change to rain by 3am and become heavy at times. I think we will pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain before it changes to a brief period of non-accumulating snow late tomorrow night.

Watch out if you live close to a stream. It will go over its banks.

Anyway, everyone west and north, enjoy your snow!! This storm has all the indications of a major snowstorm!!!!! All the rain we get, will be snow farther north and it will pile up BIG-TIME!!!!

ENJOY THAT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll have another couple updates tonight.....Stay Tuned!!!


This is Jeb, reporting from Woodbridge VA.

[Lowpressure]

Jeb- 11:45 here with very light snow. Medium size flakes not monsters like last week. It just started but it is not melting anywhere it hits. 30.4 degrees DP 17 wind light from the North. It is moving your way.

[Lowpressure]

Snow picking up now. Starting to dust surfaces. It is gathering on all surfaces. 30.4 degrees light/ variable winds.

[Anonymous]

Jeb- 11:45 here with very light snow. Medium size flakes not monsters like last week. It just started but it is not melting anywhere it hits. 30.4 degrees DP 17 wind light from the North. It is moving your way.

Okay everyone.....Time for the 12Midnight update


Thanks Lowpressure for your last update. I found it encouraging!


It's 30 degrees here. The dewpoint just went up one degree, to 13 degrees. the wind is East at 7mph, gusts to 16. The pressure is 30.36 and falling.

The radar loop shows the snow about 15 miles to our south. Lowpressure reported light snow at 1147pm or so. I should be seeing it by about 1230.

We'll see how much we get. That regrettable snow/sleet line is so close, but we will see how lucky we get tonight!

Stay tuned, I will have another update at 1am, which will probably be my last update for the night. After that, you probably won't hear from me again until about 3pm tomorrow (Church). Unless we get clocked with a lot of snow or ice overnight, but with that changeover line so close, I don't think that problem will arise.


This is Jeb, reporting from Dale City/Woodbridge VA.

[Lowpressure]

Jeb- snow picking up in earnest. You should see some soon. Everything is turning white. It is pretty heavy. You may be surprised in the a.m. Wind is ENE light with some gusts now. Temp down to 29.8 DP 18. Go outside.

[Anonymous]

Jeb- snow picking up in earnest. You should see some soon. Everything is turning white. It is pretty heavy. You may be surprised in the a.m. Wind is ENE light with some gusts now. Temp down to 29.8 DP 18. Go outside.

It's coming up on 1AM here now......


Your last post has filled me with a kind of excited anticipation about this snow, Lowpressure.


Temperature is 30 degrees. Dewpoint is 13 degrees. Wind is ENE at 6mph, gusts to 16. Pressure is 30.35 and falling. The clouds are very, very low and they are reflecting a lot of light.

This radar image is very interesting. This is a still image, not looping radar. It shows a heavy band of snow just to my south that is what you are experiencing, Lowpressure. This band of heavier snow is moving my way and it's expanding in areal coverage as it moves toward me. The radar shows the snow over my position now, but we are not currently observing snow here yet. But I get the definite feeling we will soon, and when we do, it will rapidly get heavy. The snow/sleet line has moved south so that it is now 60 miles away, not 40 as before.


I am thinking about one last ob in about 30 minutes.


This is Jeb, reporting on this storm from Dale City/Woodbridge VA.

[Anonymous]

This is my last reported observation tonight. It's nearly 2AM here.



Light snow began falling here at 120am. It was very light and dusty. It's 150am now and the snow is moderate. Flakes are a quarter-inch in diameter; some of the snowflakes are nearly half an inch in diameter.

The temperature has fallen two degrees in the past half hour. It's now 28 degrees. The dewpoint has risen four degrees in the past half hour; it's now 17 degrees. The wind is out of the ENE at 7mph; gusts are ENE at 17. The barometric pressure is 30.34 and steady.

Edit: 27 degrees; dewpoint 18 degrees. One quarter inch of snow on car tops, roads, sidewalks, shrubbery. Everything is turning white!!!!

The falling snow is beautiful here in Woodbridge, Va. It's nice to see it again, even if if is going to be washed away by heavy rain later. I think we will get 1 to 3 inches. The radar shows heavier snow bands moving in on Woodbridge from the south-southwest. The sleet/snow line has moved farther south, to a position 70 miles south-southwest of Woodbridge. Hmmm........maybe we'll get more snow. We'll see.


This is Jeb, reporting from Woodbridge, Va. This is my last observation of the night; it's nearly 2AM here folks. This is Jeb signing off for the night. Good night everyone. Enjoy your snow.