Major Winter Storm to Affect Parts of Mid-Atlantic and NE

donsutherland1 · #1 Postby **donsutherland1** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 4:32 pm

Based on several runs of the model guidance, teleconnections and also evolving 500 mb pattern, it appears that the greatest threat of a substantial snowfall lies across central Pennsylvania, central New York State and central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Unfortunately, a steady stream of guidance continues to suggest that a changeover to rain will occur in the Coastal Plain and a transition to sleet and freezing rain farther inland.

Key assumptions:

1) Very high vertical velocities are likely across eastern PA and western NJ (mid-day to early afternoon) and southeastern New York (mid-afternoon).
2) Warmer air, particularly between 700 and 850 mb will penetrate inland at least for a time.
3) The storm will pass just off southern New Jersey to near or across Cape Cod--inside the "benchmark"
4) The storm will deepen significantly to perhaps 975 mb-985 mb
5) Cold air damming will be present early on.

All said, the cities with mostly or all snow will likely include:

Williamsport, Harrisburg, Albany, Schnectady, Rutland, and Middlebury. There 8"-16" is highly likely. Such cities as Albany, Schenectady, Rutland, and even Concord have the possibility of receiving up to 20". In Albany and Concord, a brief period of sleet or freezing rain cannot be completely ruled out, but it should be brief.

Cities with a significant snowfall before a change to a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain include Allentown and Poughkeepsie. There, a solid 5"-10" with locally higher amounts of a foot or more possible. Any mixed or liquid precipitation will end as snow with some additional accumulation likely.

Philadelphia, Newark, New York City, and Boston will start as snow. The snow could come down heavily for a period of time (perhaps at rates of 1"-2" per hour given the very high VVs depicted--this could also promote some dynamic cooling and might serve to delay the changeover at least briefly; I'm not wholly sure of this at this time). However, the opening shot of snow will not likely last more than a few hours. Hence, I believe Philadelphia will see 1"-3", Newark/NYC 2"-4", and Boston 2"-5" before the changeover occurs.

These cities could see the storm end as a period of snow or flurries. Some chance for additional accumulation (1"-2") at the end of the storm exists, particularly from NYC northward.

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 4:40 pm

Thanks for the forecast, Don!

JCT777 · #3 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 4:46 pm

Thanks Don. Here's hoping the warm air does not come in too quickly in the NW suburbs of Philly.

#4 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 4:57 pm

Looks good Don!

#5 Postby **NEwxgirl** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 5:06 pm

donsutherland1 wrote:Based on several runs of the model guidance, teleconnections and also evolving 500 mb pattern, it appears that the greatest threat of a substantial snowfall lies across central Pennsylvania, central New York State and central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Unfortunately, a steady stream of guidance continues to suggest that a changeover to rain will occur in the Coastal Plain and a transition to sleet and freezing rain farther inland.

Key assumptions:

1) Very high vertical velocities are likely across eastern PA and western NJ (mid-day to early afternoon) and southeastern New York (mid-afternoon).
2) Warmer air, particularly between 700 and 850 mb will penetrate inland at least for a time.
3) The storm will pass just off southern New Jersey to near or across Cape Cod--inside the "benchmark"
4) The storm will deepen significantly to perhaps 975 mb-985 mb
5) Cold air damming will be present early on.

All said, the cities with mostly or all snow will likely include:

Williamsport, Harrisburg, Albany, Schnectady, Rutland, and Middlebury. There 8"-16" is highly likely. Such cities as Albany, Schenectady, Rutland, and even Concord have the possibility of receiving up to 20". In Albany and Concord, a brief period of sleet or freezing rain cannot be completely ruled out, but it should be brief.

Cities with a significant snowfall before a change to a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain include Allentown and Poughkeepsie. There, a solid 5"-10" with locally higher amounts of a foot or more possible. Any mixed or liquid precipitation will end as snow with some additional accumulation likely.

Philadelphia, Newark, New York City, and Boston will start as snow. The snow could come down heavily for a period of time (perhaps at rates of 1"-2" per hour given the very high VVs depicted--this could also promote some dynamic cooling and might serve to delay the changeover at least briefly; I'm not wholly sure of this at this time). However, the opening shot of snow will not likely last more than a few hours. Hence, I believe Philadelphia will see 1"-3", Newark/NYC 2"-4", and Boston 2"-5" before the changeover occurs.

These cities could see the storm end as a period of snow or flurries. Some chance for additional accumulation (1"-2") at the end of the storm exists, particularly from NYC northward.

I agree with you alot Don in regard to the very strong vertical motions. We will have to see if areas such as Allentown remain as all (or mostly all snow) underneath dynamic cooling induced by the very strong upward motions.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 5:46 pm

Note how DCA (Washington DC) is not even so much as mentioned. I have the very bad fortune to live southwest of DCA.

Well folks, it's very muddy from nearly 4 inches of rain a couple of days ago.

I'm settling in for probably another 2 to 3 inches' worth of soaking rain down here. Man I sure hope to God that we aren't in for a long, freezing cold, rainy winter here. I am sick and tired of rain! It is so muddy out there that I am sinking down about 2 inches on the lawn.

Northern Virginia really could use a break from all the torrential rain, but that does not appear to be in the cards for our area. We will have a rapidly deepening low off our coast, with a cold high moving rapidly east, mid-level and probably low level warming will overspread us here, with a solid stratoform rain settling in, probably heavy at times. Our creeks are running at brimful right now, and heavy rainfall is definitely NOT what the doctor ordered.

If it has to rain, and my gut is telling me, a good soaking rain is what we are in for, and its 40 degrees right now (Can we say heat wave?), why can't we have just a nice light rain? Why does this stuff always FLOOD us so bad?

As I mentioned earlier, local creeks are running bankful. Any more heavy rain and we will be swimming. This is not funny. I expect to see Flood Watches out for our region by no later than Saturday morning.

You guys can have the wonderful heavy snow, I know its too warm here in Virginia for that. Just keep the rain light.

-A waterlogged SnowBlitzJEB

donsutherland1 · #7 Postby **donsutherland1** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 6:21 pm

Jeb,

You wrote, "Note how DCA (Washington DC) is not even so much as mentioned."

I simply forgot to mention Washington, DC. I believe the Washington, DC area will likely see 1"-3" (the low-end at National Airport and high end at Dulles). Unfortunately, the snow at the front end of the storm will be a tease, as the storm will probably be known far more for its rain.

VortexMax · #8 Postby **VortexMax** » Fri Dec 12, 2003 7:04 pm

Hope you're right Don! NWS up here, ALB, took the sleet out of the forecast for my zone which is just north of ALB - southern Saratoga. I had us pegged for 5-10" with about 6 hrs of mainly sleet to cut down on accums. BOX (Drag) had an interesting writeup today. We shall see.

donsutherland1 · #9 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:29 pm

My final ideas on the storm:

Overall, no big changes; just some minor refinements.

Albany: 18"-24"
Allentown: 8"-14"
Baltimore: 1"-2"
Binghamton: 12"-20"
Boston: 3"-6"
Burlington: 18"-24"
Concord: 12"-20"
Harrisburg: 6"-12"
Mount Vernon, OH: 3"-6"
New York City: 2"-4"
Newark: 2"-4"
Philadelphia: 1"-3"
Providence: 2"-5"
Washington, DC: 1"-2"

Overall, Philadelphia through Boston will see a change to heavy wind-swept rain. Most and perhaps all of the snow in those cities will fall at the front end of the storm, though a minor accumulation is likely at the end of the storm.

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:32 pm

Sounds good, Don!

donsutherland1 · #11 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 4:34 pm

Colin,

Enjoy the storm even if you receive some mixed or even liquid precipitation for a time. Maybe the schools will be closed on Monday and you'll have a well-deserved 3-day weekend.

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 5:18 pm

I sure hope Don!

You enjoy it too...don't know exactly where you are from, but enjoy whatever you get.

donsutherland1 · #13 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 8:20 pm

NYC suburbs. Not too much is coming my way but I'll enjoy it nonetheless.

Chris the Weather Man · #14 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 8:30 pm

Mr Don, Your Website is The best. I really find the Info, Amazing, and Informative! Are you going to add more winter snowstorms that happened in the 18th and 19th Century? I really liked the Blizzard Of 1857 story, Wow, That storm seemed UNBLIEVEABLE! Wow! By the Way, you think you can do a story on the Blizzard of 1888? up to 4 FEET in TROY!! ( read on the web) but, if you could do a story on it like the Blizzard of 1857, It would be pretty Awesome!

donsutherland1 · #15 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 8:46 pm

Thanks for the very kind words.

Time is limited, so I've tried to present some early storms that have received less coverage but were truly notable in their own right. Many books have been written on the Blizzard of 1888 so I haven't prepared anything on that; maybe I will at some point in time.

The 1857 Blizzard was remarkable for its winds, heavy snowfall, and its extremely low temperatures. Until the Blizzard of 1888, many older people alive at the time recalled the Blizzard of 1857 as the worst of their lifetimes.

Finally, for what it's worth, you can click <b>here</b> to access 5 pages of photos from the Blizzard of 1888.

Chris the Weather Man · #16 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 8:51 pm

Nice Photos! Drifts are Insane! :eek:

JCT777 · #17 Postby **JCT777** » Sat Dec 13, 2003 11:54 pm

Don - thanks for updated snow projections. Interesting to see Philly expecting 1 to 3 inches (which I think is probably correct) and Allentown - which geographically is not all that far away - expecting 8 to 14. The battle zone between rain and snow looks to be in the NW suburbs. I live in western Montgomery County, PA and am expecting about 6 inches of snow, followed by some sleet and freezing rain. It should be quite a mess.

donsutherland1 · #18 Postby **donsutherland1** » Mon Dec 15, 2003 10:37 pm

John,

I was away yesterday and couldn't reply.

I can say that I'm very unhappy about my spectacular busts in a number of cities (Albany, Allentown, etc.). Had it been more snow than less, the pain would have been more tolerable. Unfortunately, it wasn't. There's nothing delightful about a wind-whipped sleet storm (those in Albany know what I'm talking about). For those in school and looking forward to an extended weekend, there's little that is more cruel than seeing an expected snow day washed away by freezing rain or even rain.

While the gravity wave had an impact for the worse, the gravity wave did not explain the major reason for the bust--the penetration of the warmer air.

As for the Wednesday-Thursday event, look for mainly rain especially the closer to the Coast on heads. Only upstate New York, northern New England and parts of Quebec north and eastward look to see the possibility of significant snow.

The idea of a pre-Christmas snowstorm--the one DT highlighted first--still looks promising.

Colin · #19 Postby **Colin** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 7:27 am

I still had a snow day, ummmmm, ice day...but school is reopened today.

Hopefully the next storm will be better.

stormraiser · #20 Postby **stormraiser** » Tue Dec 16, 2003 8:11 am

What about Central and Western NY, areas like Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo?

Major Winter Storm to Affect Parts of Mid-Atlantic and NE

Major Winter Storm to Affect Parts of Mid-Atlantic and NE

Re: Major Winter Storm to Affect Parts of Mid-Atlantic and N

Re: Major Winter Storm to Affect Parts of Mid-Atlantic and N

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