NWS Melbourne Discussion..

[Josephine96]

Note that it says severe weather threat possibly not till after daybreak..


TONIGHT...HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN BY 12Z SUNDAY
WHILE EVOLVING FROM A POSITIVE TILT TO NEUTRAL TILT. LATEST NCEP
MODEL SUITE DELAYS SLIGHTLY THE ONSET OF PRECIP PERIOD TO AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW REACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. NEITHER
MESOETA/AVN/NGM PAINT ANY QPF ACROSS CWA PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT LATE AT
NIGHT AS 150 KT JET STREAM MIGRATES ACROSS THE SE STATES... PROSPECT
FOR SOME LOCAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTION...AND TO
MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WILL RETAIN SMALL
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE FOR VERY LATE PORTION OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
WILL CUT BACK POPS SOME. WILL REMOVE STRONG/SEVERE STORM WORDING FOR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH ANY SUCH THREAT LIKELY COMING AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. MINS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER TONIGHT THAN RECENT NIGHTS
AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES.

SUNDAY...12Z RUNS OF THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BOTH DECREASED STRENGTH OF
H85 WIND FIELDS ACROSS EC FL ON SUNDAY...WITH ABOUT 35KTS TOPS...
VERSUS THE 40-50KT ON THE 00Z RUN. GFS HAD A BETTER INITIALIZATION
OF THE LOW AND WILL FOLLOW IT CLOSER. THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE 150KT UPPER JET WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND THE
GFS ALSO BRINGS A VORT LOBE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE PENINSULA
EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BEST DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO OCCUR IN
THE SOUTH...PRESENT THINKING IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH HALF OF CWA. WILL ISSUE AN HWO LATER
THIS AFTERNOON DESCRIBING THREATS TO EC FL FROM THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE
LOW WILL ACCELERATE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAYTIME...
REACHING TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW PRECIP TO END IN THE NORTH SECTIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
EVENING.

[wx247]

Looks like some severe weather is possible.

Here's what the SPC says about it:

...FL PENINSULA...
ETA/GFS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. ON SUNDAY. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER
MEXICO...WILL LIFT NEWD WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SRN ATLANTIC TO NERN STATES.

A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY ALONG/JUST OFF THE NC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND
LIFT NNEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT...WITH THE SURFACE LOW REACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD INTO DAY 2 AS SURFACE WINDS
VEER TO SLY ADVECTING MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY
RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN 30-40 SWLY LLJ AND
50-60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET...STORMS THAT DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...THEN A RISK FOR SEVERE WOULD NEED TO BE
ADDED TO PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.

[Josephine96]

Hmm.. Sounds like the storm potential is there.. All the elements are coming together. We are having a beautiful day today too..

The last few times a severe weather threat has been for here, it hasn't materialized because we've had cloudy or ugly days.

Today we have a few clouds, but plenty of room for the sun to peak through..

[therock1811]

yeah...you definitely have that...be careful!

[Josephine96]

I will be careful Rock. I live pretty close to where that parade is in my community tonight, so I may walk home. Besides.. it may give me a chance to watch the clouds materialize.

I wonder what we're in for here.. It's getting kinda spooky. I know the Melbourne NWS did say they'd issue a hazardous weather threat assesment thingy.. But I haven't seen it yet. I hope it comes out before the parade.

{takes a deep breath and relaxes lol}

[therock1811]

I think it'd come out with the text forecasts, which'd be in about 30 or 45 minutes.........

[Josephine96]

Ah Ok.. So sometime between the top of the hour and 4:15pm eastern? ok.. That makes sense..

I actually like reading the Hazardous Weather Outlooks sometimes lol..

[wx247]

[Josephine96]

LOL WX.. Thank you.. I guess it's just been posted recently..

[Josephine96]

Actually I just noticed how not recent that graphic is lol.. {slaps self}