Tropical Cyclone Cela nearing Hurricane strength in the...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Mozambique Channel!

Here is the latest on the system from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center...


WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CELA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.7S3 43.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 43.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 15.8S4 43.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 16.1S8 43.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 16.4S1 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 17.1S9 42.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 43.8E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST
OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE
AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC 03S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, EGGR, GFDN, WBAI AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1
IS 08 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (JANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

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[chadtm80]

[Typhoon_Willie]

Nice pic there Chad! I not sure if the system is going to make landfall again but it will be close!