18z GFS.

Cheesy_Poofs · #41 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:10 pm

RNS, what are you thoughts on this storm for Central MD? ( About 30 miles NE of DC )

#42 Postby **RNS** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:24 pm

A period of very heavy snow followed by a change toi sleet and freezing rain and then a change back to a period of accumulating snow and strong winds.

This may very well change looking at some of the newest data.

Stormsfury · #43 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:27 pm

The 00z ETA continues to trend a bit colder and a bit slower with the CP high ... I've also noticed today that the GFS and the ETA have trended a little weaker and further south with the SFC low as well ... and also, I can't stress this enough. The models have had a very rough time with the low-level cold air. I'm already seeing progged temperatures and actual temperatures as much as 15º COLDER than forecast ... IOW, that bit of difference (and even just 5º) can be a HUGE factor for this next storm ...

SF

wrkh99 · #44 Postby **wrkh99** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:33 pm

Kentucky and TN may get hit pretty hard if this colder trend continues

Guest · #45 Postby **Guest** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:45 pm

Hmmmm...........Very very suprised nobody caught the title to this thread and what time it was posted..........LOL

BTW it should have been 12z GFS.......Oh well.

Anyways great discussions guys.

BTW how about that 00z ETA?????

Stormsfury · #46 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 10:57 pm

Yep, how about it ... wedge extends all the way past South Carolina at 72 hours ... makes more sense, IMHO, and it locks down the high a little more in Maine at the end of the run ... coastal beginning to take shape off of the Carolina Coast ... however, at the 500mb level, the trough is still slightly POS at the end of the run ... phasing looks to occur much later according to this run, and overall, appears to have trended a bit weaker.

therock1811 · #47 Postby **therock1811** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 11:02 pm

king of weather wrote:Hmmmm...........Very very suprised nobody caught the title to this thread and what time it was posted..........LOL

BTW it should have been 12z GFS.......Oh well.

Anyways great discussions guys.

BTW how about that 00z ETA?????

I thought something was off...didn't know what tho...

Stormsfury · #48 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 11:12 pm

00z GFS is also trending a little colder and a weaker, further south position as well ... and it's finally showing signs of ageostrophic gradient, but still doesn't respect wedging worth a crap ...

So, two totally different scenarios painted even in the short term ...

ETA with a Miller B type scenario, and the GFS with a Miller A ... bunk. In the same timeframes (84 hours out, the ETA at the 500mb level has a slightly positive tilted trough, the GFS slightly NEG ...)

GFS 84 hour 500mb heights

ETA 84 hour 500mb heights

#49 Postby **RNS** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 11:18 pm

The eta is sharper with the newfoundland trough which is why the trough assolciated with the s/w coming through is positive...the GFS isn/t as bullish w/ the newfoundland feature so it has meridional (to very slightly neg tilted) trough and much faster phase.

18z GFS.

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