18z GFS.

[JCT777]

RNS - that's cool. In fact, I commend you for staying with your forecasts. The reasonings you have given for your forecast are excellent. And I did see this from you in the other thread:

Notice that while we have ridging over spain at 108 hours...the flow is still somewhat split across the central ATL w/ neg tilted H5 trough...this would help to pump the ridge to the north of it and strengthen the blocking in eastern greenland (notice the height rises taking place along the easten shore). this would help to hold the trough over quebec and newfoundland. therefore the high would be forced to move slower...and the teleconnection between the ridge over spain will be mitigated enough so that the system is not an inland runner...but the effect of the teleconnection is still indirectly present (helping to turn the system up instead of shearing it out).

as we can see...the canadian has a classic miller B scenario...w/ the track of low pressure from the outerbanks to just southeast of nova scotia.

I am not questioning your forecast at all. I guess I am just wondering why others are seeing things the way they are. Obviously, that is not something you can answer. Keep up the great work.

[RNS]

thanks...I dont mean to beat this horse dead but in this respect i take the stance of JB...as far asmy take on the opinions of others...you can agree with me or disagree if you want but the fact is the weather is not a public opinion poll...and sure...my skill with the previous event was very good but i was not alone...many of my forecasts include the opinions of Erica and we work together pretty much as a team tomake these forecasts.

I cant speak for others...they willhave their own opinions but im sorry to say that one does not push a 1030+ high out of new england in 24 hours following an arctic intrusion.

[donsutherland1]

John,

I'm in full agreement with RNS on this one.

At this point in time, I don't find the idea shown on some of the earlier guidance of a rapid exit for the high pressure to be the more likely scenario. I expect a slow drift and thus longer period of cold air to hold. Hence, as far as I'm concerned, there will be snow accumulations even before a changeover (for a time) in Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Significant snowfall continues to look likely in interior sections and it is not out of the realm of possibility that even some of the big cities especially from NYC northeastward have a shot at significant snowfall. All said, in these cities, I continue to see an accumulating snow to rain and back to snow (with some additional accumulation possible) scenario.

[jpp5862]

Don,

Any thoughts on what this system is going to look like for the south? Particularly NC/VA?

Thanks.

[donsutherland1]

Jpp5862,

I believe that parts of the Piedmont will see a period of freezing rain/ice, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, it's too soon to say whether the period would be an extended one, but this possibility exists. It is also possible that some of this freezing rain affects Charlotte.

[Colin]

Don, what are your thoughts for the ABE area?

Thanks!

[Guest]

even if you two dont see the kind of accumulations you want from this next system i quite confident another MAJOR - WIDESPREAD snow event willeffect the mid atlantic and northeast this winter...(yes an event comparable to presidents day is possible as well). for two winters in a row to experience major winter storms along those lines is VERY RARE thouigh NOT IMPOSSIBLE (nothing in meteorology is impossible) and this may be one of those years as well.

I mean look at the facts here folks...the previous winters (following 1995/96) featured no events of such concequence as presidents day or the blizzard of 96. the winters of 1996/97...1997/98...1998/99...1999/00 (w/ the exception of the JAN storm). were very warm and for the most part slnowless...mini streaks of warm winters are commonly followed by a mini streak of severe winters (with few exceptions). the same conclusions are drawn regarding major east coast snowstorms. IMO we have now enetred into a mini-streak of moderate to severe winters.

these mini streaks occur frequently regardless of the over-riding long term forcing from the PDO and ATC (which asie from the solar cycle are the primary drivers of long-term climate patterns).[/quote]

I work at AccuWeather in marketing, and I had commented how unusual it was for Boston to get back-to-back years with 20 plus inch snowstorms, and he had mentioned that in the late 1700s, New England received a pair of two-foot+ snowstorms in seven days.

[JCT777]

I work at AccuWeather in marketing, and I had commented how unusual it was for Boston to get back-to-back years with 20 plus inch snowstorms, and he had mentioned that in the late 1700s, New England received a pair of two-foot+ snowstorms in seven days.

From some things I have heard, there were some VERY harsh winters in the east during the late 1700's. Perhaps we are entering a period similar to that era. One can always hope, of course.

[Stephanie]

Considering how active it has been in the tropics as well this year and last, it seems that we are enterring an active pattern. However, I realize that there have been discussions on the Tropics and this board about the correlation between the activity in the Tropics and how it may/may not affect the winter weather. It just seems like all of the ingredients that we need to have for some decent snowfalls along the EC, (negative NAO, etc.) are coming together.

[donsutherland1]

Speaking of winters in the late 1700s, one of the harshest such winters was the Winter of 1779-80. During that winter the waters around NYC froze completely and navigation was shut down for several weeks. Jefferson reported that the Chesepeake Bay froze solid to the mouth of the Potomac.

At the same time, there was a memorable blizzard on January 2-4, 1780.

At the time, George Washington was based at Morristown, NJ. He wrote the following in his diary:

"2d. Very cold--about noon it began to Snow, & continued without intermission through the day, & night. The wind high & variable, but chiefly from the west and No. West.

3d. The same weather as yesterday--to wit cold & stormy--wind from the same point.

4th. Very cold with high winds from the west & No. West and intermitting Snow."

In his January 5, 1780 correspondence to the Continental Congress, Washington wrote that the blizzard "has so blocked up the roads that it will be some days before the scanty supplies in this quarter can be brought to Camp."

In a January 8, 1780 letter to the Magistrates of New Jersey, Washington explained, "The distress we feel is chiefly owing to the early commencement and uncommon rigor of the Winter, which have greatly obstructed the transportation of our supplies."

Near the end of the winter, in his March 18, 1780 letter to Lafayette, Washington recounted, "The oldest people now living in this Country do not remember so hard a Winter as the one we are now emerging from In a word, the severity of the frost exceeded anything of the kind that had ever been experienced in this climate before."

Anyway, back to the present. Look for the artillery of raindrops to pound away at the slowly retreating snowcover beginning under the cover of darkness and thick fog tonight. However, winter looks prepared to counterattack following this temporary setback. The next storm continues to look far more wintry for many of us in the region, especially in interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. And in the long-range, there is genuine prospect of more snow and possibly an outbreak of Arctic cold.

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

This year's hurricane analogs have been very bullish on the snow. So far, the season is off to a rousing start.

[donsutherland1]

Colin,

I believe Allentown has a good chance at receiving another significant (6" or more) snowfall. Some areas will likely receive more than a foot from the weekend storm.

[Colin]

Thanks for the good news Don!

[RNS]

I have no reason to disagree as now the EC is coming around to my idea as well (albeit slowly) yesterdays run heald onto the inland front runner too long and transfered energy to a system east of the apps. this evenings run looks much better...

The problem the EC is having relates to its inability to handle STJ energy...which many of you are aware of.

if one notices it is much slower bringing the energy out and thus by the time the s/w reaches the eastern US the trof over newfoundland is already lifting out which would allow the high to move out quickly.

Thus I reallt dont think its a problem with the high i think its a problem with the speed at which the model brings the energy out.

this IMO is WRONG. The correction to the EC is for the STJ energy to come out FASTER (ala the GFS and ETA 12z/18z runs this afternoon) and phase with a digging shortwave as it lifts northeastward. the high will be heald in place long enough so that areas north and west of the major cities will see snowfall accumulations similar to what was seen on christmas 2002 if not MORE. this system will be stronger (which i think the EC May have the strength correct...but the position of the low is WRONG.)

as far as the details go...i have no changes from that which was already expressed and has been as such since i announced the potential for a storm the week of the 15th following the previous system.

[RNS]

The european is wretched in situations where STJ energy is on the table. it has a problem with bringing this energy out too slowly and this is a perfect example of a situation such as that.

watch how the GFS and ETA strongly outpreform the EC in situations where STJ energy is invloved.

[RNS]

And BTW...for anyone thats interested...major arctic outbreak coming into the eastern US around XMAS.

[Stormsfury]

Looks like she is starting to pick up on our weekend system alot better now.............Still has a little ways to go imo. But its still early yet and as well atleast now the GFS is starting to pick up on it...............Let the nw trend begin!!!!! ...........BTW ETA is picking up on it as well.

Now let the discussions begin!!!!!!!

The GFS is female?

Ahhh, that explains why it changes her mind so many times.

[RNS]

Looks like she is starting to pick up on our weekend system alot better now.............Still has a little ways to go imo. But its still early yet and as well atleast now the GFS is starting to pick up on it...............Let the nw trend begin!!!!! ...........BTW ETA is picking up on it as well.

Now let the discussions begin!!!!!!!

The GFS is female?

Ahhh, that explains why it changes her mind so many times.

Makes sense...

[Heady Guy]

RNS:

What are you expectaions for the burbs of PHL with this one. I am about 20-25 outside the city. I am thinking snow to sleet to rain. Any thought would be great. Thanks.

[RNS]

At this point I disagree...All snow (maybe a period of sleet prior to the coastal transfer) significant snow accumulations increasingly likely.