New UKMET--STRONG COASTAL--But.....

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 2:39 pm

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

so strong--it takes a negative tilt and turns almost everything to rain up the coast--the interior would get some good snow...Shows high pressure moving up. Hatterras low develops after Primary transfers near the TN Valley...

still possible for frozen at onset----but not a good run for weenie i95 snow.

#2 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 2:43 pm

How did the UKMET handle the last system?

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 2:48 pm

Lowpressure wrote:How did the UKMET handle the last system?

pretty well at first---then it crapped a GFS and had a supressed solution...then i stopped looking at it LOL

#4 Postby **Lowpressure** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 2:52 pm

I thought that but was not too certain. Systems lately have been considerably colder than forecast. Even today the forecast high for DCA was 53, it only hit 44 degrees. Last night forecast low was 35, it hit 28 in Fredericksburg. The last system was the same as Jeb and I pointed out, even during the event itself temps were constantly 4-6 degrees below guidance.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 3:04 pm

maybe a combo of snowcover...and leftover CAD from this weekends event--

this is current 850 map

weatherlover427 · #6 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 3:28 pm

Let's try this.

(you had .html at the end instead of .gif

)

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 4:10 pm

lol thanks

wasnt used to posting pics here--

anyway---termendous amount of Cold Air in Canada right now as AEP alluded to--this will be a cold air mass....and they are tough to erode as quickly as some models show.

JCT777 · #8 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 4:18 pm

Ji wrote:this will be a cold air mass....and they are tough to erode as quickly as some models show.

Which is exactly why we should not instantly write this storm off as a mix-to-rain or snow-to-rain scenario for DC through NYC and their NW suburbs. I am thinking more of a snow-to-mix-back-to-snow, especially for places 20+ miles north and west of DC, Baltimore, Philly and NYC. I think RNS, NEwxgirl and donsutherland have an excellent handle on this storm.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 4:21 pm

LOL i would trust u jct777 with that forecast. but you were on the rainbandwagon last week until 2 days before the storm:)

JCT777 · #10 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 4:25 pm

LOL! Good point. But I have finally come to the realization that the trend is colder than progged in the medium range. With that said, I like the chances of the Arctic high to hang in long enough to keep the storm from changing to rain north and west of the DC through NYC corridor.

Colin · #11 Postby **Colin** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 5:12 pm

JCT777 wrote:
Ji wrote:this will be a cold air mass....and they are tough to erode as quickly as some s show.

Which is exactly why we should not instantly write this storm off as a mix-to-rain or snow-to-rain scenario for DC through NYC and their NW suburbs. I am thinking more of a snow-to-mix-back-to-snow, especially for places 20+ miles north and west of DC, Baltimore, Philly and NYC. I think RNS, NEwxgirl and donsutherland have an excellent handle on this storm.

And each of them are calling for all snow for me!!!! This is going to be a fantastic winter...people are probably so glad that this snow is going away, and they don't even know another one is coming!!!!! Bwahahahahaha :lol:

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 5:21 pm

Lowpressure wrote:I thought that but was not too certain. Systems lately have been considerably colder than forecast. Even today the forecast high for DCA was 53, it only hit 44 degrees. Last night forecast low was 35, it hit 28 in Fredericksburg. The last system was the same as Jeb and I pointed out, even during the event itself temps were constantly 4-6 degrees below guidance.

We hit 26 last night here in Dale City/Woodbridge, and the high today was progged at 50 degrees. Wouldn't cha know it......We only eked out 42 degrees this afternoon. We had south to southeasterly winds, and only about 20% areal snow coverage today, and still the temps were 8 degrees below forecast.

Last night I went Snow Chasin' Yeah!!! Took Prince William Pkwy NW to Manassas, where they still had 3 inches.............took Route 234 up 7 miles north of Manassas, where I found a 5 inch snowpack!!!!!!!

When Dale City doesn't get much snow, I know where to go: North!!!!

BRING ON THAT 36 INCH BLIZZARD BABY, I'M READY!!!!!!

-Snow Blitz JEB

weatherlover427 · #13 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 5:30 pm

Ji wrote:lol thanks

wasnt used to posting pics here--

...

No problem, glad to help.

Hope you guys get your snow.

#14 Postby **RNS** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 9:37 pm

BTW...Ji...the UKMET solution looks alot like the late december 2000 or End of the millennium storm.

#15 Postby **RNS** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 9:39 pm

I might actually want look into that idea even further. so IMO the UKMET solution is one that is VERY interesting.

R0bb0871 · #16 Postby **R0bb0871** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 9:40 pm

I CLEARLY remember that storm. Here in Dover, NJ, we ended up with around 2 feet of snow. That was a great storm!

#17 Postby **RNS** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 9:40 pm

The implication however would be the areas which got pounded by the last noreaster get mainly rain (like BOX did from the Dec 2000 storm) while areas across central jersey and eastern PA get ripped.

#18 Postby **RNS** » Wed Dec 10, 2003 9:42 pm

New UKMET--STRONG COASTAL--But.....

New UKMET--STRONG COASTAL--But.....

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