ECMWF screaming MAJOR overrunning event (CAD) on Day 7

[RNS]

Looking at the latest data... we find ourselves in more than one camp with the modelling concerning this Sunday/Monday event.

The EURO is well to the west with the lead low across and has it across Missouri. (NOT LIKELY)

The GFS (through 120hrs as of writing) looks to be rather supressed with this low. (PROBABLY TOO SURPRESSIVE)

The Canadian is right in the middle of the two and takes the lead low into the eastern OV and weakens it through 144hrs. (THE MOST LIKELY SCENERIO)

It is amazing at the lack of continuity from the models in this time frame. This has been a constant problem this fall and early winter and is likely to continue. Pattern recognition and overall meteorological reasoning are the best tools for anyone right now.

One thing is for sure... this pattern is loaded for bear and will LIKELY lay down a snowpack fairly far south in the next few weeks. This in turn opens the door for a SEVERE COLD spell by years end!

if the event was one day away i would take a blend of the new GGEM and the 18z GFS...

[WEATHER53]

Over the last 20+ years the vast majority of gulf origin lows start out as being projected as too warm for dc/mid atlantic. Many of them are too warm, almost all of them start out as being projected as such. This track is the most frequent track for 6"+ storms for DC metro.

[RNS]

Now the 0z GFS isin/t that bad (looks alot like what we just dealt w/ minus the monster PJ s/w):

500 hPa heights/vort:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

6-hr PCPN:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_144l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_150l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_156l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_162l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_168l.gif

60-hr total QPF: (drums pls...LOL):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

.75"+ QPF being printed out at that range...and trending wetter.

Thats IMO the major sticking point w/ the GFS...it trended wetter on the 12z run went even wetter at 18z and seems to maintain the trend (though backing off slightly).

And in due time....looks whats right on it/s heels...

[RNS]

Over the last 20+ years the vast majority of gulf origin lows start out as being projected as too warm for dc/mid atlantic. Many of them are too warm, almost all of them start out as being projected as such. This track is the most frequent track for 6"+ storms for DC metro.

i don/t disagree with you 53...this has plenty of potential to produce major accumulations further south than the previous system but...i do think that DCA/BWI/ and perhaps PHL are the battle zones...NYC/BOX may get away w/ all snow...however less accumulation than previously.

[Guest]

IMHO the big problem i see relates to the storm we have now developing in the Plains/Midwest............Seems to me this storm is not gonna be nearly as strong as a few had suggested as well as the models did at one time which means it wont have the power to pull the cold air needed farther south and east for the system you guys are talking about here..........Which in turn imo should make for a track farther west and be mostly a snow event for the Apps on west (OH/TN Valley's) and perhaps maybe as far east as Boston MAYBE...............Perhaps wrap around or secondary Coastal Low will give some snow to the i95 corridor but even that is iffy depending on how quickly this system moves which by the looks of the 00Z GFS doesnt look to quick????? Either way great discussion......Just thought i would add that little two cents of mine.............

[JCT777]

This has been an excellent discussion by all. I am somewhat torn on what to think regarding the storm for 12/14-12/15. At this point, I think that my area will start as snow, go to a wintry mix (and perhaps briefly all rain), then back to snow at the end. I am not expecting any major accumulation of snow, but this looks like it will create havoc for travelers.

[kpantz]

The 12Z GFS from today is looking pretty good for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, if its southeastward/progressive bias is to be believed. It'll be interesting to see what the EC does with the system.

[Anonymous]

Definitely looks like a good possibility of snow in the Ohio Valley. I have a discussion on my website concerning this storm!

[Stephanie]

Stephanie,

If you're referring to the storm that just blew through the Northeast, I'd say no, since Miller B's are usually characterized by a low trying to push NEward up a Appalachian chain, but dynamics (CAD, etc) are such that the best path for deepening is offshore, hence the inverted trough/redevelopment. This storm came more out of the plains/midwest. I'd love to hear arguments on this, though...I'm by no means an expert!

-Ken

Ken...

Its kind of hard to categorize the previous system according to the normal miller types (A...B and C). though IMO it was more of a mix between a miller B and C (if that makes sense). the digging vortmax was consistent with a miller C and the coastal development in the inverted trough was more or less characteristic of a Miller B.

Thanks guys!

[Lisa]

Enough already!!! Don't tease me with the potential for snow ever again!! We got nothing this past weekend.....now, again the POTENTIAL in the Ohio Valley/App's/Mid-Atlantic....... So, just to clarify for my peace of mind. Where do you all consider WV? We have been lumped in all 3 sections. Do you see us finally getting snow? just remember, we are not in the Northern PanHandle nor are we in the mountains. Let me know your opinions. Thanks

[JCT777]

Lisa - It depends on where the storm tracks. Often when a storm tracks into the Ohio Valley and then a secondary (coastal) storm forms, you end up with some rain and maybe a few flurries - because the primary storm tracks to your north and/or west (bringing rain) and the coastal forms too far to your east to bring you anything but possibly a few flurries. You would need the primary storm to track further south and east, maybe into western NC and west/central VA. This would bring you some decent snow. I am afraid the storm on 12/14-12/15 may not work out too well for snow in your area. At least that is the way it looks now.

[RNS]

This has been an excellent discussion by all. I am somewhat torn on what to think regarding the storm for 12/14-12/15. At this point, I think that my area will start as snow, go to a wintry mix (and perhaps briefly all rain), then back to snow at the end. I am not expecting any major accumulation of snow, but this looks like it will create havoc for travelers.

John - I could not disagree more. This WILL be another MAJOR winter storm for portions of the mid-atlantic and northeast. I will reiterate my stance on this event for everyone who does not (or chooses not to) understand.

"We can Draw conclusions as to how this next threat to the east may behave...and IMO it may very well be a repeat of x/mas 2002 or the early January Noreaster with MORE cold air....Similar track and surface pressure.

THE KEY HERE IS MORE COLD AIR THAN XMAS 02 AND MUCH MORE THAN EARLY JAN 03.

The battle ground will once again be the major cities...and the areas most likely to see the heaviest accumulations (Possibly significant) will be areas greater than 50 miles inland from the Big cities and 100 milesinland fron the coast.

Heres a rough idea of where i stand right now on the situation...

Mainly rain: ORF...RIC...SBY...DOV...ACY...

Snow to rain then back to snow again: (icing possible as well...maybe significant)...ROA...DCA...BWI...PHL...EWR...BDL...BOX

Best POTENTIAL for significant snow (6"+): HGR...BFD...UNV...IPT...MDT...
ABE...AVP...MPO...MSV...BGM...PSF...ALB..."

and as ofright nowi have no changes. heres the basic outline:

Low pressure develops in the western gulf on saturday evenin gand moves north-northeasttoa position in eastern KY by sunday night. as the system encounters the cold air wedge...new surface low pressure will develop in the inverted trough along the virginia coast and move northeastward as it bombs out. IOW...much like xmas 02.

The only difference is on xmas we did not have cold high pressuretoholdin the wedge...this time we WILL...however even still I DOUBT the major cities (given the track of the initial 850 hPa low...before re-development) will remain as all snow...though that is tosay it will NOT be a major rain event either.

the Adjustment here is to move the area of heaviest snow associated with the Xmas storm 50-75 miles south of where it was during that event.

A first guess would be an area of 6-12" or more falls 75 MI either side of a line from from Hagerstown MD to Scranton PA then to Concord NH. Local Accumulations of 1-2 feet will also be possible one again.

[Guest]

Enough already!!! Don't tease me with the potential for snow ever again!! We got nothing this past weekend.....now, again the POTENTIAL in the Ohio Valley/App's/Mid-Atlantic....... So, just to clarify for my peace of mind. Where do you all consider WV? We have been lumped in all 3 sections. Do you see us finally getting snow? just remember, we are not in the Northern PanHandle nor are we in the mountains. Let me know your opinions. Thanks

First off HAVE a look at the forum moderater. Im getting a little irate with your post as of late. You have done nothing but complain ever since arriving here and secondly i know where WV is at seeing how im in the next state as im certain most others do on this board. Perhaps i am miss reading you but please try to think about what you say before you say it.

As far as your snow chances go i think its a 50/50 shot because you could end up on the mixed precip side of the precip which i do think you will end up with. Gonna have to wait a little longer to nail it down for sure.

My thinking is the low will ride up into the TN/OH valley to near where your located in SW WV and eastern KY with a transfer of energy possibly to the VA/MD coast.................Which means the heaviest snows should stay to your north into Northern KY and into OH and the northern areas of WV and into Western PA................Big concern is may happen on the east side of the apps with a strong cad setting up bringing perhaps a nasty wintry Mix/Ice storm to Central and western VA/NC and the upsate of SC and down into ne GA...................The i95 cities could be dealing with this problem as well.................Still its early yet and this could change but i will say my confidence is rising each day as we near the storm..............Two things has my intrest. One is todays plains/midwest system (Looking weaker) and as well the TYPICAL GFS se bias (Models split) just to name a couple of things...................Check back in is all i can say at this point.

[Guest]

This has been an excellent discussion by all. I am somewhat torn on what to think regarding the storm for 12/14-12/15. At this point, I think that my area will start as snow, go to a wintry mix (and perhaps briefly all rain), then back to snow at the end. I am not expecting any major accumulation of snow, but this looks like it will create havoc for travelers.

John - I could not disagree more. This WILL be another MAJOR winter storm for portions of the mid-atlantic and northeast. I will reiterate my stance on this event for everyone who does not (or chooses not to) understand.

"We can Draw conclusions as to how this next threat to the east may behave...and IMO it may very well be a repeat of x/mas 2002 or the early January Noreaster with MORE cold air....Similar track and surface pressure.

THE KEY HERE IS MORE COLD AIR THAN XMAS 02 AND MUCH MORE THAN EARLY JAN 03.

The battle ground will once again be the major cities...and the areas most likely to see the heaviest accumulations (Possibly significant) will be areas greater than 50 miles inland from the Big cities and 100 milesinland fron the coast.

Heres a rough idea of where i stand right now on the situation...

Mainly rain: ORF...RIC...SBY...DOV...ACY...

Snow to rain then back to snow again: (icing possible as well...maybe significant)...ROA...DCA...BWI...PHL...EWR...BDL...BOX

Best POTENTIAL for significant snow (6"+): HGR...BFD...UNV...IPT...MDT...
ABE...AVP...MPO...MSV...BGM...PSF...ALB..."

and as ofright nowi have no changes. heres the basic outline:

Low pressure develops in the western gulf on saturday evenin gand moves north-northeasttoa position in eastern KY by sunday night. as the system encounters the cold air wedge...new surface low pressure will develop in the inverted trough along the virginia coast and move northeastward as it bombs out. IOW...much like xmas 02.

The only difference is on xmas we did not have cold high pressuretoholdin the wedge...this time we WILL...however even still I DOUBT the major cities (given the track of the initial 850 hPa low...before re-development) will remain as all snow...though that is tosay it will NOT be a major rain event either.

the Adjustment here is to move the area of heaviest snow associated with the Xmas storm 50-75 miles south of where it was during that event.

A first guess would be an area of 6-12" or more falls 75 MI either side of a line from from Hagerstown MD to Scranton PA then to Concord NH. Local Accumulations of 1-2 feet will also be possible one again.

Nice to see it looks like we agree........LOL. What timming as well.

[RNS]

Enough already!!! Don't tease me with the potential for snow ever again!! We got nothing this past weekend.....now, again the POTENTIAL in the Ohio Valley/App's/Mid-Atlantic....... So, just to clarify for my peace of mind. Where do you all consider WV? We have been lumped in all 3 sections. Do you see us finally getting snow? just remember, we are not in the Northern PanHandle nor are we in the mountains. Let me know your opinions. Thanks

First off HAVE a look at the forum moderater. Im getting a little irate with your post as of late. You have done nothing but complain ever since arriving here and secondly i know where WV is at seeing how im in the next state as im certain most others do on this board. Perhaps i am miss reading you but please try to think about what you say before you say it.

As far as your snow chances go i think its a 50/50 shot because you could end up on the mixed precip side of the precip which i do think you will end up with. Gonna have to wait a little longer to nail it down for sure.

My thinking is the low will ride up into the TN/OH valley to near where your located in SW WV and eastern KY with a transfer of energy possibly to the VA/MD coast.................Which means the heaviest snows should stay to your north into Northern KY and into OH and the northern areas of WV and into Western PA................Big concern is may happen on the east side of the apps with a strong cad setting up bringing perhaps a nasty wintry Mix/Ice storm to Central and western VA/NC and the upsate of SC and down into ne GA...................The i95 cities could be dealing with this problem as well.................Still its early yet and this could change but i will say my confidence is rising each day as we near the storm..............Two things has my intrest. One is todays plains/midwest system (Looking weaker) and as well the TYPICAL GFS se bias (Models split) just to name a couple of things...................Check back in is all i can say at this point.

LOL...i agree king...but the Ice problem is in the major cities...areas N/W will see all snow from this system...yes that even includes colin and the rest of the lehigh valley snow cult...as this system WILL BE COLDER than christmas and MUCH colder than the early January Nor'easter. as for your area king...thismay be your first major winter storm of the season (and probably all snow at that).

The initial low will not make it as far north as xmas or jan 03 and the coastal transfer will be further south.

[WEATHERGURU]

Hey King do you see any snow on the horizon for these parts in the week to 10 days?

[Lisa]

King- You don't know how to read me--that is the problem. I'm not complaining about any of you- I'm a frustated snow lover that has not seen a major snow fall since the Blizzard of '93.

[Ginx snewx]

RNS said
"the Adjustment here is to move the area of heaviest snow associated with the Xmas storm 50-75 miles south of where it was during that event"

For your reference Xmas 02 storm

[JCT777]

RNS - Thanks for the reply about the 12/14-15 storm. If what you are saying is correct (by shifting the heaviest snow 50 to 75 miles south and east of the Christmas 2002 storm), then my area would be under the gun for a major snow event, which would likely feature some mixing with sleet/rain but not enough to keep me from seeing 6"+ of snow. The Christmas 2002 storm brought an inch of snow at the onset to my area, then some ice and rain which changed back to snow in time for us to pick up another 3 inches. I know this by talking to friends and family in the area, because I actually spent Christmas Day with my in-laws who live about 75 miles NW of where I live. And they received a foot of snow, with a few hours of mixing in the early morning with sleet and rain.

Perhaps I am allowing myself to be easily influenced by all of the opinions regarding the storm (JB, LC, storm2k folks, WWBB folks, etc.) - which is still 5 to 6 days away. I have seen everything from people saying the storm will track so far inland that everyone east of the mountains will get rain, to the storm will be surpressed enough to the south that Philly and NYC may be on the northwest fringe of the storm. The answer lies somehwere in between, but I am starting to get more confident now that this storm means business.

[Guest]

King- You don't know how to read me--that is the problem. I'm not complaining about any of you- I'm a frustated snow lover that has not seen a major snow fall since the Blizzard of '93.

Thats ok Lisa. I do apoligize and VERY much understand where you are comming from with getting screwed on your snows................I think you should do alot better this winter then those of recent past. Try to keep your head up................