'Gulf Effect Snow'

[Stormsfury]

Nevermind... I'm looking at them now... man I hate IE...

According to the 1895 maps with the Precip there was a Low that formed in the Gulf, deeeep in the Gulf, else there wouldn't have been precip there with that kind of signature.

They didn't have electronic Bouys then and the only time they knew a Low pressure had formed out in the sea were from ship reports.

Remember, that map has not been updated in 100 years, so it has to be taken with a grain of salt, and you have to read between the lines

Remember, those are SFC maps ... I offer two ideas ...

1) There was probably one hell of a 500mb cutoff (possibly resembling like the one that just currently buried the Northeast and a possible deformation band setting up to produce that kind of totals ... doesn't mean, the SFC low itself had to be that strong ...

2) Prolonged overrunning event ... too bad there aren't upper-air analysis maps from that timeframe ...

SF

[Valkhorn]

What about

3) An ample phasing of energy where a deep low in the gulf moved Northeast, weakened and then reamplified off the coast of Tampa and they missed it. If it was around 29.30 or so and was small and compact enough it would have gone undetected if it was in the middle of the GoM.

4) The Low did in fact move NE and was near Tampa at that specific time, but was in fact off the map perhaps near the Bay of Campeche the day before. Thus (ala Isidore) lots of moisture would have been wrung out even though the low was a good deal away.

As someone who lives on the Gulf Coast, you simply cannot have that much overunning precip unless there is either a good deal of convection or lift in the atmosphere. Two feet doesn't explain overrunning moisture

[Stormsfury]

What about

3) An ample phasing of energy where a deep low in the gulf moved Northeast, weakened and then reamplified off the coast of Tampa and they missed it. If it was around 29.30 or so and was small and compact enough it would have gone undetected if it was in the middle of the GoM.

4) The Low did in fact move NE and was near Tampa at that specific time, but was in fact off the map perhaps near the Bay of Campeche the day before. Thus (ala Isidore) lots of moisture would have been wrung out even though the low was a good deal away.

As someone who lives on the Gulf Coast, you simply cannot have that much overunning precip unless there is either a good deal of convection or lift in the atmosphere. Two feet doesn't explain overrunning moisture

I beg to differ on that overrunning moisture theory ... look at the President's Day Storm earlier this year, and that low wasn't very deep at all ... The low off the Carolina Coast on February 16th, 1895 was only around 29.85" or so ... take a closer look at the isobars, and also, the temperatures weren't quite cold enough to the coast ... a much deeper low would have brought snows all the way to the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia as the cold air would have surged southeastward with the HIGH back in the Plains running around 30.80" ...

In looking at the maps again on February 14th-16th, the overrunning event seems viable ... and here's why ...

Cold air damming along the slopes of the Rocky Mountains with easterly winds produced an upslope event and along that, a mid/upper -level disturbance dove SE'ward into the SW and developed a SFC low in the Western GOM, moving east ... meanwhile, the STRONG surge of surface cold air dove straight southward (Blue Norther Style) but aloft in response to the 500mb low, moisture was pulled over the top of the very cold dome and isentropic lift was very strong ...

It's very plausible that the storm system may have NOT been a blockbuster in terms of strength ...

[Valkhorn]

Well we'll never know to be exact. Seems a far more likely thing to me to be a strong Low Pressure center because living in the Gulf of Mexico over-running precipitation in the form of rain and convective activity actually yields rainfall totals up to 10+"... so come to think of it I'm not sure myself...

Either way you slice it, that's a lot of precipitation for that part of the country

[Stormsfury]

Well we'll never know to be exact. Seems a far more likely thing to me to be a strong Low Pressure center because living in the Gulf of Mexico over-running precipitation in the form of rain and convective activity actually yields rainfall totals up to 10+"... so come to think of it I'm not sure myself...

Either way you slice it, that's a lot of precipitation for that part of the country

Agreed ... and that 1895 event is pretty unprecedented ...