Photos from the December 2003 Blizzard

[donsutherland1]

<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/12062003-3.jpg">
Westport, Connecticut

<img src="http://wintercenter.homestead.com/files/12062003-11.jpg">
Newbury Street (Boston)

Additional photos can be found at:
http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

Just click on the hyperlink for "December 2003."

Enjoy.

[Stormsfury]

There's been some sweet pictures of just how heavy this snowstorm have been ... nice pictures, Don.

SF

[donsutherland1]

December 5-7, 2003 saw a rare early December blizzard plaster the Northeastern United States with more than 30" (75 cm) of snow in some spots and generally 1-2 feet from NYC to Boston.

The implication of this storm for the Northeastern U.S. is greater than expected snowfall for the winter--e.g., NYC is now all but certain to exceed 30" for the season and likely will exceed 40".

Consequently, if the past is of any guide, 1979-80 will not apply for the New York City to Boston areas: a snow drought for the remainder of the winter in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region is highly unlikely. Above normal to perhaps much above normal snowfall is far more likely.

A big early-season snowfall of 6” or more prior to December 7 can have major implications for the upcoming winter and certainly break the proverbial back of fears that suppression will lead to a snow drought for the upcoming winter. In such cases, while there can be suppressed periods, winters as a whole are not “suppressed” in general with regard to their storm tracks.

New York City's significant early-season significant snowfalls (December 7 and earlier) are as follows:

November 24-25, 1938: 8.8"
November 29, 1882: 9.0"
November 30, 1898: 6.0"
December 4, 1957: 7.5"
December 5, 1886: 8.1"
December 5, 2002: 6.0"

In all six winters, seasonal snowfall was above to much above average for New York City.

Total winter snowfall for these seasons:
1882-83: 44.0"
1886-87: 32.9"
1898-99: 55.9"
1938-39: 37.3"
1957-58: 44.7"
2002-03: 49.3”

Average: 44.0”

In addition, for those living in the Mid-Atlantic region, in 3 of the 4 years since regular recordkeeping began in Washington, D.C., snowfall was above 25" there. Only 1938-39 (13.6") came in with below normal seasonal snowfall.

At the same time, an especially snowy December (12” or more)—and if the upcoming storm dumps as much as some of the model guidance suggests is possible, it will put December 2003 on a “fast track” toward such snowfall—offers a strong signal both in Boston and New York City of above normal snowfall for the coming season:

In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more:
• 14/22 (63.6%) seasons saw more than 50” for the season and 17/22 (77.3%) saw more than 45” for the season in Boston.
• 14/15 (93.3%) seasons saw 30” or more for the season in New York City. The average came to 44.7%. Lowest: 28.7”; Highest: 63.2”.

In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more in both Boston and New York City:

There was a somewhat greater tendency for suppression, though both cities still saw above normal snowfall.

• 4/7 (57.1%) of seasons saw more than 45” for the season in Boston with an average of 59.0”.
• 6/7 (85.7%) of seasons saw more than 30” for the season in New York City with an average of 47.7”.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks. I have seen a number of photos and they're all terrific.

[wx247]

Interesting analysis Don. Thanks! I found it very interesting to read.

[RNS]

December 5-7, 2003 saw a rare early December blizzard plaster the Northeastern United States with more than 30" (75 cm) of snow in some spots and generally 1-2 feet from NYC to Boston.

The implication of this storm for the Northeastern U.S. is greater than expected snowfall for the winter--e.g., NYC is now all but certain to exceed 30" for the season and likely will exceed 40".

Consequently, if the past is of any guide, 1979-80 will not apply for the New York City to Boston areas: a snow drought for the remainder of the winter in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region is highly unlikely. Above normal to perhaps much above normal snowfall is far more likely.

A big early-season snowfall of 6” or more prior to December 7 can have major implications for the upcoming winter and certainly break the proverbial back of fears that suppression will lead to a snow drought for the upcoming winter. In such cases, while there can be suppressed periods, winters as a whole are not “suppressed” in general with regard to their storm tracks.

New York City's significant early-season significant snowfalls (December 7 and earlier) are as follows:

November 24-25, 1938: 8.8"
November 29, 1882: 9.0"
November 30, 1898: 6.0"
December 4, 1957: 7.5"
December 5, 1886: 8.1"
December 5, 2002: 6.0"

In all six winters, seasonal snowfall was above to much above average for New York City.

Total winter snowfall for these seasons:
1882-83: 44.0"
1886-87: 32.9"
1898-99: 55.9"
1938-39: 37.3"
1957-58: 44.7"
2002-03: 49.3”

Average: 44.0”

In addition, for those living in the Mid-Atlantic region, in 3 of the 4 years since regular recordkeeping began in Washington, D.C., snowfall was above 25" there. Only 1938-39 (13.6") came in with below normal seasonal snowfall.

At the same time, an especially snowy December (12” or more)—and if the upcoming storm dumps as much as some of the model guidance suggests is possible, it will put December 2003 on a “fast track” toward such snowfall—offers a strong signal both in Boston and New York City of above normal snowfall for the coming season:

In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more:
• 14/22 (63.6%) seasons saw more than 50” for the season and 17/22 (77.3%) saw more than 45” for the season in Boston.
• 14/15 (93.3%) seasons saw 30” or more for the season in New York City. The average came to 44.7%. Lowest: 28.7”; Highest: 63.2”.

In Decembers in which total snowfall came to 12” or more in both Boston and New York City:

There was a somewhat greater tendency for suppression, though both cities still saw above normal snowfall.

• 4/7 (57.1%) of seasons saw more than 45” for the season in Boston with an average of 59.0”.
• 6/7 (85.7%) of seasons saw more than 30” for the season in New York City with an average of 47.7”.

I think the above average snowfall idea in the mjaor cities now goers pretty much without saying don. anyway...nice write-up and those are awesome pics.

[PTrackerLA]

Nice pictures and interesting facts, thanks for posting.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the kind words, RNS.

I hope that both Erica and you enjoyed the snowfall out in PA and are looking forward to the abundant snowfall that remains in store for the season.

[JCT777]

Excellent analysis and pics, Don. Most people (myself included) did not think this winter could be as snowy as last winter in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. And it still might not be. But things have started nicely and the forecast for next week leads me to believe that there is a good chance DC through Boston could all have 50% or more of their total seasonal snow averages before December 20. Excellent!