2001kx wrote:heres a stupid question......is unv-(st.college)
ive always thought it was but not completly sure....
Yes...
ECMWF screaming MAJOR overrunning event (CAD) on Day 7
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
RNS,
A repeat of Xmas would be great (had thunder in my location in NNJ that time!)...
I'd feel more comfortable if the high was a little further west, but I see the suggestion of CAD is more than subtle
Of course, now that the 12Z GFS has lost the system (develops a low, but a day or two late, allowing the high to exit to the ENE), we'll have to wait until later today to see what the other medium range models have to say. I'm anxious to see the EC, which has been relatively dazzling with the last few winter storms (even stretching to last winter).
-Ken
A repeat of Xmas would be great (had thunder in my location in NNJ that time!)...
I'd feel more comfortable if the high was a little further west, but I see the suggestion of CAD is more than subtle
Of course, now that the 12Z GFS has lost the system (develops a low, but a day or two late, allowing the high to exit to the ENE), we'll have to wait until later today to see what the other medium range models have to say. I'm anxious to see the EC, which has been relatively dazzling with the last few winter storms (even stretching to last winter).
-Ken
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SF/RNS - Very nice analysis on the event for early next week. LC is already honking about the potential for a significant ice/snow event for the I-95 corridor (DC through Boston). JB seems to think mostly rain south and east of the I-95 corridor, all snow in the mountains, and a mixture of snow/sleet/rain in between. It's always good this time of year to have wintry weather possibilities in the 7 day forecast. 
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RNS wrote:We can Draw conclusions as to how this next threat to the east may behave...and IMO it may very well be a repeat of x/mas 2002 or the early January Noreaster with MORE cold air....Similar track and surface pressure.
THE KEY HERE IS MORE COLD AIR THAN XMAS 02 AND MUCH MORE THAN EARLY JAN 03.
The battle ground will once again be the major cities...and the areas most likely to see the heaviest accumulations (Possibly significant) will be areas greater than 50 miles inland from the Big cities and 100 milesinland fron the coast.
Heres a rough idea of where i stand right now on the situation...
Mainly rain: ORF...RIC...SBY...DOV...ACY...
Snow to rain then back to snow again: (icing possible as well...maybe significant)...ROA...DCA...BWI...PHL...EWR...BDL...BOX
Best POTENTIAL for significant snow (6"+): HGR...BFD...UNV...IPT...MDT...
ABE...AVP...MPO...MSV...BGM...PSF...ALB...
Sounds good, but I only got 4" from the Christmas storm...
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The next storm is obviously going to be a primarily rain event for the I95 corridor. LC is dead wrong again. JB is right on this one as is most of the NWS ideas for the next system.
After that it is a big toss-up. Current ideas are for the next system to be a gulf low or southern track system giving snow around the 14th and 15th to southern MO and maybe even north Arkansas east northeastward.
After that, the next system should be around the 20th or so, and that has a significant chance of pulling down arctic air either during the frontal passage or significantly after it due to the possible teleconnections for that time period.
There is no other way the system in the next two days could be considered a snowstorm in the I95 corridor, it just won't happen. It will be primarily rain, and lots of it. Also the track for the system after that is pretty much locked in as far as the consensus goes.
Now the arctic surge around the 20-25th is a half and half thing, but I think it's going to happen. We're due for one.
After that it is a big toss-up. Current ideas are for the next system to be a gulf low or southern track system giving snow around the 14th and 15th to southern MO and maybe even north Arkansas east northeastward.
After that, the next system should be around the 20th or so, and that has a significant chance of pulling down arctic air either during the frontal passage or significantly after it due to the possible teleconnections for that time period.
There is no other way the system in the next two days could be considered a snowstorm in the I95 corridor, it just won't happen. It will be primarily rain, and lots of it. Also the track for the system after that is pretty much locked in as far as the consensus goes.
Now the arctic surge around the 20-25th is a half and half thing, but I think it's going to happen. We're due for one.
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Valkhorn - agreed about this week's system being rain for the I-95 corridor, but I wouldn't dismiss the storm for the 12/14-12/15 time frame as being all rain for the I-95 corridor. I think it is borderline at best now, but you and I both know that things can change, especially when the storm is 6 or 7 days away. Even a slight change at this juncture could make a cold rain into a significant ice/snow event. Who knew that parts of NH, VT and Maine were going to get 2'+ of snow with this past weekend's event? Almost nobody up until the night before the event - and even then some of the forecasters probably busted a lot on the low side. So let's just see how this evolves and how things look in a few days for the 12/14-15 event.
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WEATHER53 wrote:Track from the gulf to northern GA to central NC to off VA coast, that is what big DC snowstorms are all about and this one is looking like that profile.
53,
Do you think that northern GA will get any mixed precip out of this? The last storm caused some problems near the mountains, and temps were way off during that time. Any comments on this are appreciated!
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Anonymous
WEATHER53 wrote:Track from the gulf to northern GA to central NC to off VA coast, that is what big DC snowstorms are all about and this one is looking like that profile.
BRING IT ON!!!!!! We want heavy snow and drifting!!! I want to shovel snow!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!!!
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Who knew that parts of NH, VT and Maine were going to get 2'+ of snow with this past weekend's event?
I did. A lot of forecasters could tell that the storm would dump over a foot to 15" in some places, even JB 5 days away signalled at least a foot was possible.
Paul Kocin two nights before also stated I think somewhere that 20" was possible in places.
Now with the next storm I'm referring to the one on the 10th and 11th, which is not seven days away. With that one most of the snow will be WELL inland.
Now the 15th storm could be closer to the coast but I don't think it will be as snowy as anything in recent memory... (last weekend?). At the most I think a few inches in the subs of some big cities maybe but other than that no.
The one to watch will be what happens around the 20th I think... until then there won't be much cold air to work with... after the 20th there will be plenty of air, the Aleutian low is setting up shop soon...
I did. A lot of forecasters could tell that the storm would dump over a foot to 15" in some places, even JB 5 days away signalled at least a foot was possible.
Paul Kocin two nights before also stated I think somewhere that 20" was possible in places.
Now with the next storm I'm referring to the one on the 10th and 11th, which is not seven days away. With that one most of the snow will be WELL inland.
Now the 15th storm could be closer to the coast but I don't think it will be as snowy as anything in recent memory... (last weekend?). At the most I think a few inches in the subs of some big cities maybe but other than that no.
The one to watch will be what happens around the 20th I think... until then there won't be much cold air to work with... after the 20th there will be plenty of air, the Aleutian low is setting up shop soon...
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Tonight's run of the EURO just doesn't make sense to me! It seems to be having trouble with the ejection of the SW energy and thus leads to a bogus surface low in Missouri.
This is kind of strange from the EURO as it is usually too slow with SW energy and digs that energy moreso than other models.
Bottom line is we SHOULD be dealing with slower and somewhat deeper 500 mb energy coming into the south. Much farther south than the EURO is depicting. This would in turn cause SLP to form in the northern Gulf and head toward the eastern OV. This low would weaken and transfer energy to a coastal low.
In a nutshell... I think tonight's EURO is a bad run!
This is kind of strange from the EURO as it is usually too slow with SW energy and digs that energy moreso than other models.
Bottom line is we SHOULD be dealing with slower and somewhat deeper 500 mb energy coming into the south. Much farther south than the EURO is depicting. This would in turn cause SLP to form in the northern Gulf and head toward the eastern OV. This low would weaken and transfer energy to a coastal low.
In a nutshell... I think tonight's EURO is a bad run!
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