ECMWF screaming MAJOR overrunning event (CAD) on Day 7

WEATHERGURU · #21 Postby **WEATHERGURU** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 9:52 pm

Thanks

Stormsfury · #22 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 9:58 pm

Thanks for the plug, RNS.

SF

Valkhorn · #23 Postby **Valkhorn** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 10:06 pm

JB Has been hinting at something coming out of the gulf for this time frame for a week now, and it has been in every run of the GFS for a while.

At first I kind of thought yes, there is something there, but not wintry.

However the closer we get to it some odd things are definately showing up, so I wouldn't put it past mother nature for it to happen.

If it does... it'll be a Merry Christmas indeed. If there's one thing in the Southeast that qualifies as the worst winter weather you can have, icing is it. Tornadoes are a walk in the park compared to a significant freezing rain scenario.

Suncat · #24 Postby **Suncat** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 11:11 pm

This will be interesting to watch. Central NC high temps for the upcoming weekend are currently expected to be in the mid 50's to mid 40's. There is no precip in the forecasts for the weekend.

Let the fun begin!!! :lol:

PTrackerLA · #25 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sun Dec 07, 2003 11:45 pm

This is looking interesting, now only if we could get the cold and precip to combine along the gulf coast :roll:

Wannabewxman79 · #26 Postby **Wannabewxman79** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 12:45 am

So are you saying that NC, particularly Raleigh, might be in for it come next week?

Guest · #27 Postby **Guest** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 12:51 am

Ok enough is ENOUGH!!!!!! LOL........Its MY TURN dammit!!!!!!!LOL. To be all honest if this does happen (which right now i have to agree with you guys) im gonna be one friggen poed person. First i miss the big daddy this past weekend and now i look to miss this weeks event..........I mean come the f*#$ on.

Valkhorn · #28 Postby **Valkhorn** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:55 am

The latest GFS has the same system. Funnily enough it dropped it completely on the 18zulu run and went out to lunch around christmas with a Gulf Coast snowstorm...

This one would mean a lot of overruning rain. I checked accumulated snowfall for the some model in the Accuweather Pro site for 240 hours and it showed a few inches in Arkansas northward.

I wonder what this will mean...

Cheesy_Poofs · #29 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 7:35 am

NWS ( LWX ) in Sterling Va, mentioned this system in there forcast discussion....hm.......Here is a part of there forecast discussion....

" THE CANADIAN/GFS AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE EUROPEAN/UKMET MODELS
POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT STORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM COMES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES (A GOOD PATH FOR STORMS
THIS TIME OF YEAR). WILL INCREASE CLOUDS FOR NOW DURING SUNDAY AND
LET THE NEXT SHIFT DECIDE HOW TO TREAT THE SYSTEM. AS OF RIGHT NOW
TEMPERATURES ARE A CLOSE CALL...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO AFFECT THE
AREA MAINLY MONDAY."

kpantz · #30 Postby **kpantz** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 8:54 am

Hi All (first post!),

What concerns me about this system is that it would be coming right on the heels of the previous one, with little cold air settling into the NE. This is one thing that would set it apart from a classic Miller B.

Maybe the departing storm can usher in enough cold air to help us out a bit, but I can't envision the cold layer being deep enough to save most of us from a change to -ZR or plain rain.

Thoughts?

jpp5862 · #31 Postby **jpp5862** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 9:32 am

Same here in CLT Suncat. The forecast for Charlotte for the weekend is dry and highs around 50, lows around 30. They don't seem to make any mention of the potential storm.

I even looked on the Duke Power website to see what their meteorologists were saying, they do mention the possibility of a storm late in the week but have low confidence and do not bring in the colder temps.

It will be interesting to see what develops, we got gypped on the last system so maybe this one will bring some winter weather.

Also...Stormsfury, look forward to hearing your opinions on what this could mean for the Carolinas, always enjoying reading your thoughts.

PTrackerLA · #32 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 10:01 am

I like that gulf coast snowstorm idea...the 0 degree line is off the coast of LA

#33 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 12:50 pm

Was the EC showstorm a Miller B then?

Valkhorn · #34 Postby **Valkhorn** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:03 pm

It's quite different in today's 12z GFS run... it's got a few cold troughs and a few systems but nothing really major yet.

However it does have a deep surge of arctic air by the 23rd... in fact though it always does at the end of every run

kpantz · #35 Postby **kpantz** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:23 pm

Stephanie,

If you're referring to the storm that just blew through the Northeast, I'd say no, since Miller B's are usually characterized by a low trying to push NEward up a Appalachian chain, but dynamics (CAD, etc) are such that the best path for deepening is offshore, hence the inverted trough/redevelopment. This storm came more out of the plains/midwest. I'd love to hear arguments on this, though...I'm by no means an expert!

-Ken

#36 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:25 pm

We can Draw conclusions as to how this next threat to the east may behave...and IMO it may very well be a repeat of x/mas 2002 or the early January Noreaster with MORE cold air....Similar track and surface pressure.

THE KEY HERE IS MORE COLD AIR THAN XMAS 02 AND MUCH MORE THAN EARLY JAN 03.

The battle ground will once again be the major cities...and the areas most likely to see the heaviest accumulations (Possibly significant) will be areas greater than 50 miles inland from the Big cities and 100 milesinland fron the coast.

Heres a rough idea of where i stand right now on the situation...

Mainly rain: ORF...RIC...SBY...DOV...ACY...

Snow to rain then back to snow again: (icing possible as well...maybe significant)...ROA...DCA...BWI...PHL...EWR...BDL...BOX

Best POTENTIAL for significant snow (6"+): HGR...BFD...UNV...IPT...MDT...
ABE...AVP...MPO...MSV...BGM...PSF...ALB...

#37 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:30 pm

kpantz wrote:Stephanie,

If you're referring to the storm that just blew through the Northeast, I'd say no, since Miller B's are usually characterized by a low trying to push NEward up a Appalachian chain, but dynamics (CAD, etc) are such that the best path for deepening is offshore, hence the inverted trough/redevelopment. This storm came more out of the plains/midwest. I'd love to hear arguments on this, though...I'm by no means an expert!

-Ken

Ken...

Its kind of hard to categorize the previous system according to the normal miller types (A...B and C). though IMO it was more of a mix between a miller B and C (if that makes sense). the digging vortmax was consistent with a miller C and the coastal development in the inverted trough was more or less characteristic of a Miller B.

kpantz · #38 Postby **kpantz** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:34 pm

RNS wrote:Ken...

Its kind of hard to categorize the previous system according to the normal miller types (A...B and C). though IMO it was more of a mix between a miller B and C (if that makes sense). the digging vortmax was consistent with a miller C and the coastal development in the inverted trough was more or less characteristic of a Miller B.

I'll buy that...thanks for the explanation.

FWIW, HPC has the following to say in their prelim extended discussion:

WILL BRING SFC LOW OVER THE WRN GULF COAST
DAY 5 SAT NEWD... WEAKENING OVER THE TN/OH VLY LATE DAY 6
SUN... WHILE THE COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER BY EARLY DAY 7.
SUCH A FCST HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF ENS MEAN.

2001kx · #39 Postby **2001kx** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:40 pm

heres a stupid question......is unv-(st.college)
ive always thought it was but not completly sure....

#40 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 08, 2003 1:45 pm

I agree w/ the HPC...however its like i said the high to the north will once again hold the cold air in...there was NO cold high w/ Xmas 02 (and ABE still saw 8-12") there was a WEAK high w/ the January system but it had little effect and the system overall was WARMER than Xmas 02.

The JAN 03 system was my only bust last year as i keyed in too much on the high pressure center and as a result i busted...this time the High WILL be in position to make a difference.

I/m thinking classic miller B with the first areaoflowpressure developing in the WRN or central Gulf and moves northeastward to about Pikeville KY beforetransfering the coast.

Overrunning precip will beak out ahead of the first system and bring a few inches of snow to the big cities (much like Xmas) before changing to rain or ice. then as the system goes to the coast...the main show begins. Right now inland areas (and especially the lehigh valley and Northeast PA this time...and BTW i grew up in the allentown area) may be under the gun.

The details assume that the system behaves in a similar way to xmas02 w/ more cold air...as far as surface pressures go I/m not sure at this point though the low will likely be a rather deep system (980-990mb???). IOW...deeper than most systems we saw last winter.

ECMWF screaming MAJOR overrunning event (CAD) on Day 7

Raleigh

Who is online