WINTER OUTLOOK UPDATE ----> SNOWFALL TOTALS:

[RNS]

In our winter outlook...we outlined various seasonal snowfall accumulations for the major cities of the northeast. However...given recent events in regard to our major east coast snowstorm and other development it would appear as if these totals will need signifcinat updating. We have established two new primarly analogs as well and the seasonal totals in those two additional primary analogs will be figured into the totals which you see below.

We also have added a few new locations.

First Forecast issued with our winter outlook:

[i]"This evening our final 2003/04 winter outlook has been completed (finally I get a break...lol), and a version of that will be posted here at some point this coming week. The complete article is much too long to be posted here, so it will take some time for me to customize something Tailored to this type of format.

I Promised everyone late last week that I would post our organization’s seasonal snowfall expectations for the coming winter in the major cities tonight.

Although i know that some of you will not be pleased (others may be very happy...it all depends on where you are and what you like) with these expectations, it is in our opinion, the most likely scenario.

BOSTON -----> 55-60"
NEW YORK -----> 30-35"
PHILADELPHIA -----> 25-30"
BALTIMORE -----> 20-25"

in general, the further north one goes, the better the chance of seeing above normal snowfall, the further south you live, the closer to normal or below normal totals."[i]

The overall trend remains unchanged...though the major adjustment is to significantly up the seasonal snowfall accumulatiosn in the major I-95 cities...the new totals are as follows (i Know many of you in the I-95 corridor will like this...LOL):

BOSTON -----> 70-80"
NEW YORK -----> 45-55"
PHILADELPHIA -----> 40-45"
BALTIMORE -----> 35-40"

No storm produces more than 30 inches in NYC and Boaston...24" in Philadelphia...and 18" In DC and Baltimore.

There is also a greater than 50% probability of a widespread Mid-Altnaitc and Northeast Major winter storm.

Other expected seasonal snowfall totals for Cikties across the Northeast:

Albany ------> 75-80"
Hartford ------> 70-80"
Roanoke ------> 35-40"
Richmond ------> 15-25"
Scranton ------> 65-75"
Allentown ------> 60-70"

I do NOT think that this previous Major east coast snow event was a "fluke" and do think that it may be establishing a trend. Storm tracks will display more variability this winter though the primary storm track should be up the ecast coast...followed by systems which run inland up along or west of the apps and the last being inland runners.

the best chances for a major event would be periods when the NAO is positive - going to negative.

Storm systems will be more dynamically efficient. Thus deeper surface low peressure areas. we have already seen strong evidence supporting this idea during the fall and winter. whether the track is up the east coast or through the midwest...or whatever.

More frequent phasing between the Polar and Sub-tropical branch than last winter and more than 2000/01.

More Sub-tropical jet input than 2000/01 but less than this previous winter.

in the abscence of the moderate El Nino (though we are borderline weak El Nino at this time)...there will not be any raging STJ to prevent phasing.

Finally...Snowfall totals compareable to last winter...though probably NOT exceeding the previous winter/s totals in the I-95 corridor. Inland sections of the Northeast and Mid-Atlanticn may see more than what was totaled up last winter.

[Colin]

Holy CRAP!!!! :o 60-70"? WOW!!!!!

[ohiostorm]

Any forecasts for Ohio or more of Western PA?

[RNS]

Any forecasts for Ohio or more of Western PA?

Above normal snowfall and below normal temperature. More variable storm track will being more storms than last winter...though the east should once again be hardest hit.

those of you in the lakes and midwest will get yours in the next La Nina winter.

[RNS]

Holy CRAP!!!! :o 60-70"? WOW!!!!!

More than last winter...less than 1995/96 (the number two season all time)

[Stormsfury]

RNS and Erica's getting a head-start with this latest SECS ... and with the type of pattern we're in right now, this month ALONE could be quite volatile ...

SF

[RNS]

RNS and Erica's getting a head-start with this latest SECS ... and with the type of pattern we're in right now, this month ALONE could be quite volatile ...

SF

And with the POTENTIAL for another...?????

[Colin]

I'm ready... everybody in school knew this before any mets on TV were talking about this...because of.........

[donsutherland1]

RNS,

I fully agree with your new numbers, particularly in the Northeastern U.S. from NYC to Boston and your observation that the just-concluded snowstorm was not a 'fluke.'

In NYC, this should be the first time since Winters 1959-60 and 1960-61 that consecutive winters have more than 30" of snow and likely the first time since 1947-48 and 1948-49 that consecutive winters have more than 40" of snow.

Great job with the storm.

[vbhoutex]

I know this is basically already addressed in everything you said above, but I want to make sure I am seeing what I think I am seeing. Even though I am very confident with my tropical weather skills I am still learning a lot about the winter weather and its' patterns and the results of these patterns.

Basically what you have stated seems to me is that the NE and Mid-ATL especially above DCA should see significant snowfall most of this winter, as well as the upper Mid-west/Ohio Valley. This is due to what you alluded to and I was wondering about. It appears to me we have a pattern set up or setting up that is basically going to be providing "double-barreled" storms or storm tracks that will basically cover most of the area E of the MS river(not together necessarily). Most of these will set up either over TX/OK or be SECS with some combining like this last one did. 2 questions here-1. How long does it appear that this pattern will hold? 2.And the obvious question from a Southern boy-In Houston/SE TX do we have chance of snow/frozen precip. with this current pattern?(SHUT UP SNOW NAZI!!! )(It doesn't appear we do to me-set up is to our N)??

Right now I must agree with SF in that it appears that December, at least for the Eastern half of the country could provide some possibly historical snows.

[Portastorm]

Don't despair, vbhoutex!

There is some suggestion in the longer range ensembles that a very cold pattern will emerge later this month with an active Southern jetstream. I have seem references to this in the last few days from Bastardi, Cosgrove, and Tolleris.

Who knows, we (central and south Texas) may get in on the winter "fun" just yet!

[Stephanie]

RNS and Erica's getting a head-start with this latest SECS ... and with the type of pattern we're in right now, this month ALONE could be quite volatile ...

SF

And with the POTENTIAL for another...?????

HUH???? I saw SF's thread on the CAD event for 12/14, but that was more for the SE right?

I'm REALLY amazed at the totals for Philadelphia! In the city and in my backyard ( SW New Jersey), we had about 5 - 6 inches. I can only imagine what the other storms are going to be like!

Whatever you guys forecast, I have great confidence that the information will be accurate!

[RNS]

RNS,

I fully agree with your new numbers, particularly in the Northeastern U.S. from NYC to Boston and your observation that the just-concluded snowstorm was not a 'fluke.'

In NYC, this should be the first time since Winters 1959-60 and 1960-61 that consecutive winters have more than 30" of snow and likely the first time since 1947-48 and 1948-49 that consecutive winters have more than 40" of snow.

Great job with the storm.

Thanks Don...

Actually these are the averaged totals from my now 4 primary analogs. One of the analog years had one of the most tremendous east coast snowstorms ever (and that year was NOT 1992/93...hint...hint)...and the other two had 4 combined and the last had none but was BRUTALLY cold. Also BTW...watch the EUS for a MASSIVE arctic outbreak around or just before xmas.

[RNS]

RNS and Erica's getting a head-start with this latest SECS ... and with the type of pattern we're in right now, this month ALONE could be quite volatile ...

SF

And with the POTENTIAL for another...?????

HUH???? I saw SF's thread on the CAD event for 12/14, but that was more for the SE right?

I'm REALLY amazed at the totals for Philadelphia! In the city and in my backyard ( SW New Jersey), we had about 5 - 6 inches. I can only imagine what the other storms are going to be like!

Whatever you guys forecast, I have great confidence that the information will be accurate!

The system for the week of the 15th Steph. Which I/m sorry to say is right now looking like MAINLY a rain event for south jersey and the coastal sections. though its early...things could change.

[Stephanie]

Thanks RNS!

[Anonymous]

RNS,

I fully agree with your new numbers, particularly in the Northeastern U.S. from NYC to Boston and your observation that the just-concluded snowstorm was not a 'fluke.'

In NYC, this should be the first time since Winters 1959-60 and 1960-61 that consecutive winters have more than 30" of snow and likely the first time since 1947-48 and 1948-49 that consecutive winters have more than 40" of snow.

Great job with the storm.

Thanks Don...

Actually these are the averaged totals from my now 4 primary analogs. One of the analog years had one of the most tremendous east coast snowstorms ever (and that year was NOT 1992/93...hint...hint)...and the other two had 4 combined and the last had none but was BRUTALLY cold. Also BTW...watch the EUS for a MASSIVE arctic outbreak around or just before xmas.

Watch Out Everyone in the eastern US because there is a possibility that we could be in for a massive CROSS-POLAR FLOW!!!!

You THINK you know what COLD is....................Just wait til THAT pattern sets in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HeartofNC]

Cross-Polar Flow - :-? Dang, that doesn't sound like much fun! What the heck is it???