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The list below are our forecasted accumulations for the mid-latlantic and Northeast>>>
Washington DC 6-12"
Philadelphia 9-15"
New York City 12-20"
Boston 12-20"
Harrisburg 14-22"
Allentown 14-22"
Scranton 12-20"
Binghamton 12-18"
Albany 10-18"
Poughkeepsie 14-22"
hartford 12-20"
And our updated forecast totals for the rest of new England>>>
New York City...12-20"
hartford...10-17"
Boston...12-21"
Concord NH...14-22"
Agusta ME...14-24"
Portland ME...14-22"
Bangor ME...14-20"
Berlin VT...10-17"
Houlton ME...12-20"
Where we're at right now>>>
Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia County)>>> Final Accumulation 4-11 Inches
Quite a spread in accumulation totals in the Philadelphia area, some placers saw as little 4 inches with others getting up to 11 inches. The forecasted total for Philadelphia by us was 9-15 inches. The highest accumulation total of 10.5 inches in Northeast Philadelphia fell within our range.
New York City, NY (Central Park Zoo)>>> Total accumulation so far 13 Inches
The snow is still falling in and around the New York City metro area though has lightened up considerably and most of the accumulating snowfall will come to an end soon. Prehaps another 1 to 2 inches may fall before its all over. The forecasted total for New York City was 12-20 inches, and the current total of 13 inches falls at the lower end of our forecasted values.
OKX radar>>>
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kokx.shtml
Boston, MA (Suffolk County)>>> Total Accumulation so far 6-11 Inches
Once again, the snow is still falling and very heavily so just to the southeast of Boston out on the cape. Some sleet and freezing rain may also be mixing in at times. Our forecast for Boston is 12-20 Inches by the time the snow ends, and accumulations are likely to reach the forecast totals.
Harrisburg, PA (Dauphin County)>>> Final Accumulation 8-14 Inches
Final snowfall totals in the Harrisburg area were mostly between eight and fourteen inches. our forecast was for 14 to 22 inches of snow and the williamstown accumulatio report of 14.0 Inches allows this forecast to verify.
Allentown/Lehigh Valley, PA (Lehigh and Northampton Counties)>>> Final Accumulation 8-12 Inches
This is where our forecast ran into problems. Our total accumulation ideas were for 14-22 Inches across the Lehigh Valley. The highest total in Williams township, Northampton County fell two inches short of the 14 inch minimum.
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA (Lackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming counties)>>> Final Accumulation 5-6 Inches
This was probably the worst part of the forecast. Our ideas were for 12-20 inches in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and Wyoming valley. the Highest observed accumulatios were 6 inches below the minimum forecast number of 12 inches.
Binghamton, NY (Broome County)>>> Final Accumulation 4-8"
Not much better than the forecast for Wilkes-barre and Scranton. 12-18 Inches was the forecast. the Highest observed Accumulation was 4 inches short of the lowest forecast value of 12 inches.
Albany, NY (Albany County)>>> Total Accumulation so far 11-14 Inches
Snow is still accumulating in the Albany area and shoukld continue for the next one to two hours. The current totals from Albany county agree nicely with our forecasted accumulation range of 10 to 18 Inches.
Poughkeepsie, NY (Dutchess County)>>> Total Accumulation so far 13-19 inches
the snow is also still accumulating in Dutchess county, though should start to taper off soon. the 13-19 inch totals are in perfect agreement with our forecast for 14-22 Inches.
Hartford (Hartford County)>>> Total Accumulation so far 3-9 Inches
Some of these totals in Hartford county haven't been updated since this morning, so accumulations are most likely much higher than the Boston PNS statement indicates. Snow is still falling moderate in hartford and will continue for at least the next two hours.
Public Information Statements from the National Weather Service officies in the Northeast>>>
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BOX/PNSBOX
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/ALY/PNSALY
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/PNSOKX
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/PNSPHI
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BGM/PNSBGM
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/CTP/PNSCTP
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/PNSLWX
As far as the storm it's self goes, our low pressure area is now located just to the east of Nantucket, and has shown an eye like feature much of the day.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html
The best isentropic lifting and large scale forcing for upward motion is now progressing into northern new england, all the while the vorticity maximum associated with the upper low is now pushing northward and may casue the dry slot to move into coastal sections of far eastern maine. The best CSI banding is taking place just to the north and northwest of the vorticity maximum in locations where the absolute vorticity of the flow is still only somewhat positive and in locatins to the northwest of the coastal front where the best low level frontogenesis is located.
The Low level frontogenesis below the symmetrically unstable layer higher up is a very favorable environement for intense snowfall bands to form as we have seen.
Intellicast radar>>>
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none
Nexrad loop from the National Weather Service Gray Maine>>>
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kgyx.shtml
RNS talked about the effect that the left front quadrant of the 130 KT 300mb jet maximum is having, this feature is causing upper level divergence to develop which is leading to enhanced vertical motions and is at least partly responsible for the very heavy banded snowfall we are seening.
The ETA 0Z initialization of 300mb heights winds and isotachs shows this really well>>>
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
The second feature is the weak postive geostrophic vorticity ahead of the main maximum underneath the downstream ridge which is showing us the region which is symmetrically unstable, another rwason for the development of the banding now that the environment across northern new england is mostly saturated.
ETA Initialization of 500mb heights and geostrophic voricity>>>
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
the best negative omega is just off the coast of maine (700mb heights, RH and Omega)>>>
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
for the best dendrite growth, the location of the -8 degree isotherm at 5,000 feet usually can indicate to us areas in which the deep layer thermal profile would be the best for snow growth. With the 850mb low now beginning to really strengthen the -8 isotherm has slipped south and is now located across coastal new england.
ETA Initialization of 850mb heights, temperatures and wind>>>
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
there is also a strong northeasterly flow off the Atlantic to the north of the 850mb low pressure center, indicating a strong low level jet which looks to be directed at new england. this would help to increase moisture and lead to higher QPF output. We saw the same exact thing on president's day. That tight thermal gradient at 850mb off the new england coast would indicate an impressive coastal front and increasing frontogenesis, which would help prolong the potential for banding even after the symmetric instability is mixed out.
RNS and i will have updated seasonal snowfall forecasts for the major cities tomorrow evening and a review of the storm to see how we did with accumulations in New England.
Good night everyone!
