Another Snow event Dec. 11th....could this be happening?????

[Lehigh]

This one is for the King.....................You may see your SNOW event !

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.................................The cold air mass in place..........................






...............................The Precip in place..................................






Now you can be the judge............................................

[RNS]

per the GFS...This is the exact reverse of the situation we just dealt with...notice low pressure located in southeast canada...this is NOT a good set-up for heavy snowfall in the northeast.

personally i would be more concerned with the piece of energy behind it in eastern colorado.

[Lehigh]

Good point RNS................

I dont expect a big snow event out of this system but I do expect some sort of snow event........................how much..........well that's another subject that i will not get in to.

[mathias1979]

not to mention the high in front of this weeks system was what...1036mb...the one progged for next week is a measly 1022mb.

-Matt

[Lehigh]

Another good point Matt........................

Thanks for your input.

[Colin]

I doubt the Lehigh Valley will get ANY snow out of this system...all rain IMO...just too warm.

[RNS]

I doubt the Lehigh Valley will get ANY snow out of this system...all rain IMO...just too warm.

I agree...i don/t feel that the coming system will be a problem...however low pressure center behind it may be of interest as it will have plenty of cold air to work with...although if there is to be another significant winter storm in the EUS this month it/s likely to occur at some point during the week of the 15th.

[RNS]

and if i might add...there may be some noteworthy events in the Jan 15-25 period...and in the first week of february. in contrast to last winter...most of the winter storms to come this winter will likely occur in perids where the NAO is going Negative which would lead to more dynamically efficient storm systems.

Updated seasonal snowfall totals for the major cities will be posted tomorrow evening.

[Stormsfury]

What I'm concerned about in the near term for this first storm is the potential for SEVERE WX across the South/Southeast ... I'm having some other issues going on at the moment so I don't have much time at the moment....

SF

[WEATHERGURU]

Stormsfury take a look at the new euro. What is your opinion on snow for the lower lake area (Detroit, Mi)

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I agree RNS. The week of December 15th could be intresting....

[RNS]

Stormsfury take a look at the new euro. What is your opinion on snow for the lower lake area (Detroit, Mi)

the EC brings H5 s/w into the Pac NW tomorrow aftn...drops it into the four corners monday and western TX tuesday...surface low pressure begind to develop on TUE afternoon in south central OK. WED the s/w and associated h5 trough kick out into the midwest as surface low pressure deepens to 994mb just N of St. Louis. This has the POTENTIAL to become a MAJOR midwest winter storm from central and eastern iowa into central WI...possibly SE minneosta and the UP of Michigan in the short term.

I think the EC may be underdoing things here as the very strong height rises to the east of the neg tilted h5 trough would argue for a strengthening of the H5 s/w and the development of a closed low in addition to the fact that the trough its self has a negative tilt.

The fun part starts WED night and THU as surface low pressure translates eastward to central PA/NY and h5 closed low develops (which its should have much earlier) in response to the strengthening of the s/w and the strong downstream ridging. cold air (H85 temps fall to ~0C in detroit) wrapping around the H85 low will cause rain to change to SN on the back side. Severe wx will be a problem across the southern mid-atlantic and Southeast as H85 temps rise to near +10C in the warm sector as strong 50-60kt h85 speed maximum moves up from the south. h85 winds are south to southeasterly in the warm sector as H25 jet maximum punches in from the west. this would indicate impressive backing of winds w/ hgt and thus...the POTENTIAL for tornadoes given proper support for convection which is capible of producing tornados.

There should be two areas of heavy snowfall per tonights EC...the first is across the midwest running from roughly along an axis from Des Moines IA to Marquette MI...on TUE and WED with another with another area of heavy snow across the southern lakes WED Night and THU. Low pressure then bombs out across N Quebec at 979mb FRI. and YES DTX could see SIGNIFICANT snowfall from this system.

The key here is NO COASTAL transfer like the GFS was advertising. the System wraps up and bombs out into Quebec.

pure STJ energy in all it/s glory begins to eject out of the pacific into the Baja SAT. The EUS needs to watch this VERY closely for another potential MAJOR winter storm the week of the 15th. PV becomes established over Hudson/s bay following the event this week in the midwest.

[WEATHERGURU]

Thanks RNS

[RNS]

Thanks RNS

you got it dude...in other words IMO there is at least a 50/50 shot at significant snowfall in detroit during the mid and late week period this coming week.

[RNS]

and yes...this COULD include you King in the Mt. Vernon area.

[Guest]

Well if this system is a quick mover i for one dont see much precip (Snow) falling behind it after the second low forms..................Very hard as it is to pull moisture over the apps as was shown with yesterdays big system.....................Only way that could happen is if the front slows and the storm (Low) develops in the southern apps or down near the gulf coast states and the low makes its way Slowly up the apps.................As seen above (example) most of the heavier precip on that GFS is to my East and very little out this way which normally happens unless like i said its a slower moving storm.......................I for one am not getting too excited out this way unless i see that happen which i have what i just said above seen pop up as a solution the past several days on the models for this storm..................We will see i guess.

[RNS]

after the SFC low transfers to southern NY it will try to bring in atlantic moisture...as the H5 closed low develops and the trough tilt becomes increasingly negative. Also the dynamics will likely be very impressive w/ this system and the SFC low is in a decent position and strength to tip the scales toward the POTENTIAL for such an event.

[Guest]

POTENTIAL <----------Is a very good word to use when trying to forecast snow out this way...LOL.
I friggin hate it. But if everything happens as you say COULD then that would give this area alot better shot at some snow...............I will add that other then the PD2 storm which left 17 inches here on the ground it has been many of years sence this place has seen a major snowstorm of 18+ inches and besides the PD storm last 12+ was back in 96.............This place has been in a big time snow drought for alot of years now with the exception beeing last year which ended up 10inches above the norm..........56 inches for the season last year! This area i would have to say is very very over do for a major snow event. Just a matter of when. Which when looking back at some analogs and the way things are setting up (Both our winter outlooks says this) this is one of the better shots we have this year to do that out this way.

[montrealboy]

Canadian Model 0Z (Dec 7) on Mid-late week event:

84 hrs


96 hrs


108 hrs



120 hrs

[aveosmth]

I will be in New York City from the 16th till the 20th of January....do you think that event youre talkin about will affect me??