Second impulse IS a New England, NOT Ma storm

[Stormchaser16]

There is uncanny data to show that the deformation axis will be in New England and nowhere near NW Jersey or back further west. Implications being that QF totals for second storm, and the heavy heavy snow will not be there. Snow totals should be reduced to 4-8" for NW Jersey

[Guest]

not remotely true at all. Onemodel shows it-- the 00z ETA 4 do NOT

There is uncanny data to show that the deformation axis will be in New England and nowhere near NW Jersey or back further west. Implications being that QF totals for second storm, and the heavy heavy snow will not be there. Snow totals should be reduced to 4-8" for NW Jersey

i dont know IF this means anything or NOT but the 0z sat ETA at 500 MB has a much larger 500 Low than any other model at 24HRS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

(last tme I saw a hole that big was when I was in the Navy serving My country so that scotland could remain British and there was this loose girl ya see...)

anyway... this allows the surface Low more leeway to develop across the coastal waters and it may be a reason why the deformation axis on the 0z ETA is shifted east / north.

It is the last forecast problem to be resolve at this point. MM5 REGEM SREF RUC should be helpful in this over 12-18 hrs to see IF the ETA is right/


BUT the 00z RUC says to the ETA Bullshit -- note the rh in 700 MB stays in place
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif

as does the 00z GFS KEEP THE RH field / deformation azis over NYC NJ Lowr and eastern NY thru 1PM sat

TO 7AM SUNDAY!!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

RGEM NO heavy snow in ALB and BGM

A agrees with the RUC and GFS
28 MM in 12 hrs ending 7PM sat over POU!!!
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_100.gif
36 HR RGEMN to sunday am keep NYC LI into 90%.... 45 mm near PWM --wow!!--
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 13_100.gif

SUMMARY 00z ETA idea is wrong b/c in part of the large 500 low Error at 24 hrs

[JCT777]

Thanks for that info DT. Local forecasters in the Philly area have backed off of amounts for the 2nd storm (maybe they saw the ETA and got nervous). Earlier, some were saying as much as 10" just to the north of the city. Now it is a general 3 to 6 inches for tomorrow. Still pretty good, but less impressive.