What did Kocin just say about a third impulse?

cjh034 · #1 Postby **cjh034** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:10 pm

Did anyone see Kocin's last report a few minutes ago about a third impulse coming over the Great Lakes right now? Just wanted to know if anyone could explain his thinking behind it and what changes it could make in the forecast.

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:12 pm

if it dives too far too fast it could eject the coastal out to sea or eject it out of the general area quicker, thus lowering the accumes.

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:25 pm

There's the low depicted by the MM5 dropping out of Canada (from the 12z run) ...

R0bb0871 · #4 Postby **R0bb0871** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:30 pm

greg81988 · #5 Postby **greg81988** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:33 pm

so what will this mean for snow totals in central va

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:39 pm

greg81988 wrote:so what will this mean for snow totals in central va

Not much at all ... sorry Greg

SF

#7 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:40 pm

It looks like the third impulse takes the energy away from the coastal low, but the wind looks like it'll be still around Sunday - perhaps even worse. Would that mean that there would be less moisture to work with, thus lower totals?

mdguy25 · #8 Postby **mdguy25** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:41 pm

Yea Greg, I'd say central Va is just about finished with accum.

cjh034 · #9 Postby **cjh034** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:44 pm

Anyone more wise please correct me if I'm wrong. I caught his last report and from what he said if the 3rd low interacts it would increase NE totals but decrease MidAtl totals. So if you're in No.NJ/NYC area or further north if helps you out but So.NJ, PHI, BAL, DC it hurts you.

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:51 pm

Stephanie wrote:It looks like the third impulse takes the energy away from the coastal low, but the wind looks like it'll be still around Sunday - perhaps even worse. Would that mean that there would be less moisture to work with, thus lower totals?

It prolongs the threat in the Northeastern States and enhances snowfall ... the Mid-Atlantic (southern portion primarily gets dry slotted) ... through baroclinicity, the current surface low deepens and also with the interaction of Tropical Storm Odette being dragged NNE and NE may help BOMB the system (but long after the system's pulled away) ...

The 500mb low itself may actually setup a deformation zone (band) along the NW edge and SOMEONE located within a deformation band MAY become quite a breadwinner of snow ... we're talking 12"-18", if a band can form and remain fairly stationary over one area ...

SF

#11 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:11 pm

Thanks SF!

What did Kocin just say about a third impulse?

What did Kocin just say about a third impulse?

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