Dr Gray first 2004 outlook sees an active season 13/7/3

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 6:07 am

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 3/dec2003/

He doesn't think that ENSO will be a big factor in the atlantic in 2004 as he sees neutral to weak el nino.But read the landfall probabilities and in has interesting data for the caribbean and for the US coastline.What do all think about the doc's first 2004 outlook?

HURRICANELONNY · #2 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 8:02 am

I didn't read it yet but I was reading in the USA TODAY a hole page on him. To tell ya the truth I don't like when he starts up because it seems to go down alot. El Nino could be a factor. Have to see how it pans out. See ya all next year..How about that Odette!

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 8:07 am

Dr. Gray mentioned

"There were four hurricane seasons since 1949 with characteristics similar to what we observe in November 2003 and what we anticipate for the summer/fall 2004 period. These best analog years are 1953, 1960, 1967, and 1969 (Table 3). We anticipate that 2004 seasonal hurricane activity will be somewhat above the average values for these four analog years due to an anticipated active thermohaline circulation. Thus, based on this analysis, we expect 2004 to be an active hurricane season and in line with the average of seven of the last nine years (1995-1996; 1998-2001; 2003). We anticipate 2004 to be considerably more active than the average season during the inactive 1970-1994 period."

Remember that 1953, 1960, 1967, and 1969 all had very damaging US hurricanes:

1953: Carol-category 1- NE Coast
1960: Donna-category 4- S Florida
1967: Beulah-category 5- NE Mexico
1969: Camille-category 5- Mississippi

By the way, Odette is cooking:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

JCT777 · #4 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:21 am

At this point, I would not bet against him. And a double-digit number of named storms seems like a very good bet.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:27 am

JCT777 wrote:At this point, I would not bet against him. And a double-digit number of named storms seems like a very good bet.

This 2003 season he has been correct with his forecast all the way and with the exception of very few seasons that he hasn't been on track with his forecast the vast majority of the years he has been on target with the forecasts so we have to pay attention to what he says.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:53 am

His forecast is not joking like for the past 5 years. The US East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane some time. Ever since Hurricane Bret hit Texas on August 21, 1999 the US has dodged major bullits.
1999- Floyd
2000- Beryl, Debby, Keith
2001- Michelle
2002- Isidore and Lili
2003- Claudette, Isabel
One day it will happen so all the coast could do is be prepared!

OtherHD · #7 Postby **OtherHD** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 12:20 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:His forecast is not joking like for the past 5 years. The US East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane some time. Ever since Hurricane Bret hit Texas on August 21, 1999 the US has dodged major bullits.
1999- Floyd
2000- Beryl, Debby, Keith
2001- Michelle
2002- Isidore and Lili
2003- Claudette, Isabel
One day it will happen so all the coast could do is be prepared!

I would not consider Floyd a "dodged bullet"...

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 12:26 pm

OtherHD wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:His forecast is not joking like for the past 5 years. The US East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane some time. Ever since Hurricane Bret hit Texas on August 21, 1999 the US has dodged major bullits.
1999- Floyd
2000- Beryl, Debby, Keith
2001- Michelle
2002- Isidore and Lili
2003- Claudette, Isabel
One day it will happen so all the coast could do is be prepared!

I would not consider Floyd a "dodged bullet"...

Perhaps a severe grazing by Floyd. Floyd hit the Bahamas with 155 mph sustained wind and made landfall way down to a Cat 2 storm. It could easily have hit Florida or the Carolinas with winds as strong as Andrew but 3 times the size.

Josephine96 · #9 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 1:50 pm

He's already come out with a 2004 outlook. I wonder if we should start our predictions yet lol

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 2:18 pm

John after this storm is over and things calm I will start a poll of the members for 2004.

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 2:21 pm

Thank you Cyclone.. I am still debating my numbers for next year. Odette forming ticked me off. lol It made my # of storms be wrong by 1 lol

AussieMark · #12 Postby **AussieMark** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 5:45 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:1953: Carol-category 1- NE Coast

Actually that was 1954 the same year Hazel struck the Carolinas.

Stormsfury · #13 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 7:10 pm

OtherHD wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:His forecast is not joking like for the past 5 years. The US East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane some time. Ever since Hurricane Bret hit Texas on August 21, 1999 the US has dodged major bullits.
1999- Floyd
2000- Beryl, Debby, Keith
2001- Michelle
2002- Isidore and Lili
2003- Claudette, Isabel
One day it will happen so all the coast could do is be prepared!

I would not consider Floyd a "dodged bullet"...

I completely agree 10000% ....

Although, Floyd wasn't a "major" hurricane at landfall, keep in mind the death toll from inland flooding was by far, the most since Hurricane Camille in 1969 ...

SF

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 8:10 pm

I disagree (on Floyd). Sure Floyd caused a lot of damage and a number of people were killed. But if the winds had been 155+ at landfall (in FL or the Carolinas) then the damage and death toll would have been astronomically higher. A bullet was definitely dodged, though it didn't miss completely (arm hit vs. center of heart).

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 8:16 pm

I disagree respectfully

I guess it depends on the perspective..yes Floyd wasn't as bad as he could have been but he was plenty BAD enough for those who went through it. :eek:

No matter how bad it is it can always be worse but dodging a bullet :roll:

..not in this case IMHO :wink:

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 8:19 pm

Ok guys anyone would like to talk about what Dr Gray said in his outlook for 2004?

What do all think he is right or the 2004 season will be below what he says?

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:I disagree (on Floyd). Sure Floyd caused a lot of damage and a number of people were killed. But if the winds had been 155+ at landfall (in FL or the Carolinas) then the damage and death toll would have been astronomically higher. A bullet was definitely dodged, though it didn't miss completely (arm hit vs. center of heart).

wxman57, I know exactly what you mean ... Floyd was CAT 2, and not "major" in the technical sense of the word, but the wind field was very large. I recorded a 77 mph wind gust from Floyd (with the eye 120 miles away from my location) ... up the road, some 70 miles NE, locations in NE South Carolina, and in NC picked up a torrential amount of rain ... and most of the 57+ deaths occurred due to inland flooding and $6 BILLION in damage ... still a major catastrophe such as Allison was in Houston in 2001 ... sometimes intensity of the winds of a storm is a relatively mute point.

SF

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ok guys anyone would like to talk about what Dr Gray said in his outlook for 2004? What do all think he is right or the 2004 season will be below what he says?

I'm still have yet to review the outlook from Dr. Gray and also looked at ALL the conditions for me to say yeah, or neah, on whether I think 2004 will be active or not-active ...

Just a reminder, once again, the last 6 seasons have had double-digit number of storms and that in itself is a record for most consecutive years to achieve that feat ... Many are certainly predicting even more history with 2004 being yet another active season ... I have NOT committed either way as of yet...

SF

weatherluvr · #19 Postby **weatherluvr** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 11:53 pm

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:1953: Carol-category 1- NE Coast

Actually that was 1954 the same year Hazel struck the Carolinas.

No, there was a Carol that hit near Cape Cod in '53 as a Cat 1.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1953/CAROL/track.gif

AussieMark · #20 Postby **AussieMark** » Sat Dec 06, 2003 3:12 am

Sorry...I thought u were talking about the New England Carol.

Dr Gray first 2004 outlook sees an active season 13/7/3

Dr Gray first 2004 outlook sees an active season 13/7/3

GREY

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