Upgrade to Blizzard warnings? 12z data says so

[Guest]

high speed internet use BIG graphics
36 hr RGEM 999 low at 69 5 W and 38N ( RGEM does run a bit progressive
at times)
huge areas of 10-20MM in the northeast amazing deformation zone
in the 12 hr period ending at 7pm sat 2 areas of 20MM + --31 mm
over stroubsburg PA
25 MM over BDL

dial up http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 93_100.gif

BIG http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 593_50.gif


48 HR RGEM 991 MB 40N and 71 W 1048 mb HIGH in eastern
Canada!!!
500 low is over BID in the 12 hr period ending 12z SUNDAY
Huge area of 25 MM + over all over eastern new England
10-20 MM into ALB MSV into NYC and north NJ
Cape Cod COULD dry slot
dial up http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 600_50.gif

BIG http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 00_100.gif

12Z Eta shows SAME DEVELOPMENT.... 42 hrs 996 MB at 69W and 40 N
model still shows amazing deformation zone
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

12Z GFS also Much the same type ofthing
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[Snow Plow]

Now Now DT. Please do not put any more pressure on MT Holly then they already have on them.

They are still changing things on the fly. WSW for my county has been lifted for today, not a bad call along the coast where it has been a rain event thus far with snow/sleet now mixing.

Looking at the local forecast for the county on the NWS site it is rather funny. They have the area no longer in red and the headline text states WWA. It then shows a WSW for the afternoon and a WSWatch for tonight through Sat Night. Wonder why they just don't leave the watch up for the period? From there they could upgrade to a warning based on how the setup develops. Just seems like it would be a cleaner and easy way for regular folk to translate?

[wx247]

Now Now DT. Please do not put any more pressure on MT Holly then they already have on them.

They are still changing things on the fly. WSW for my county has been lifted for today, not a bad call along the coast where it has been a rain event thus far with snow/sleet now mixing.

Looking at the local forecast for the county on the NWS site it is rather funny. They have the area no longer in red and the headline text states WWA. It then shows a WSW for the afternoon and a WSWatch for tonight through Sat Night. Wonder why they just don't leave the watch up for the period? From there they could upgrade to a warning based on how the setup develops. Just seems like it would be a cleaner and easy way for regular folk to translate?

This sounds absolutely crazy.

[Steve H.]

Funny thing is, Upton NY calling now for 3 - 5 for LI by tonight, when earlier called for an inch or less by evening. It gets better! Tomorrow they are calling for 5 - 7, with a TOTAL accumulation Sunday morning of 6 - 8 inches? How can this be? a quick check of math shows that, unless rain washes the friday's total away, they'd have a foot! I'm leaning towards 12 - 18 total myself for western LI with near blizzard conditions. But heck, what do I know. I live in FL.

[White_Mtn_Wx]

high speed internet use BIG graphics
36 hr RGEM 999 low at 69 5 W and 38N ( RGEM does run a bit progressive
at times)
huge areas of 10-20MM in the northeast amazing deformation zone
in the 12 hr period ending at 7pm sat 2 areas of 20MM + --31 mm
over stroubsburg PA
25 MM over BDL

dial up http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 93_100.gif

BIG http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 593_50.gif


48 HR RGEM 991 MB 40N and 71 W 1048 mb HIGH in eastern
Canada!!!
500 low is over BID in the 12 hr period ending 12z SUNDAY
Huge area of 25 MM + over all over eastern new England
10-20 MM into ALB MSV into NYC and north NJ
Cape Cod COULD dry slot
dial up http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 600_50.gif

BIG http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 00_100.gif

12Z Eta shows SAME DEVELOPMENT.... 42 hrs 996 MB at 69W and 40 N
model still shows amazing deformation zone
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

12Z GFS also Much the same type ofthing
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

Great analysis DT. What an absolute awesome setup for a N MA/S NE snowstorm. Remarkable "duration" event as well with the current shortwave combined with the upcoming coastal storm. I was one of the skeptics, but it sure seems we are heading down the "historic" road.

[weatherluvr]

I can tell you a lot of people here are getting caught off-guard right now. We already have an inch since 11:00, and coming down moderate to heavy. It's going to be a real mess when school gets out in another hour or so.

[Fishmn]

Started to flurry in Central NJ around 7am. Snow picked up and is now blowing sideways from the NE with a temp of 32F. Picked up 2-3" so far on grassy surfaces. Started to stick to the roads about 11am. Heavy S+ snow as I type. Local outlets still downplaying the whole event as a 3-8" total thru Sun morning. I think these totals will bust horribly. People on the roads are idiots, many accidents already. I'm leaving work at 2 and hopefully can get home to Frenchtown by 4pm.

[li-mike]

Alright here is an update. Currently Port Jeff Reporting temps down to 26 Degrees on a NE wind. Just checked with my station (Home) in the pine barrens we have dropeed from 32 Degrees at 10am-24 Degrees as of 1 pm. Snow is heavy with a Strong wind out of the North Northeast. Aprox 2 INches on the ground already. THe rain Snow line has retreated to approximately 50 Miles south of the South Shore of Long Island and is still pushing South and East. Based on the latest models and the wind profiles we should go easterly at about 7 pm with the temp dropping to around 22-23 Degrees by then it will not be able to bring that RN/SN line back north west as originally thought at best it will modify temps to 29-30 Degrees during the peak of strom #1. WIth good snowcover from the first wave I have a good feeling that we will run a good 7-8 Degrees below the high forecasted for the height of the storm tomorrow. If I had to bet I would say a solid 8 inches, if it was someone elses monay I would say we meet Blizzard Criteria by 11am tomorrow with finall accumalations ending mid morning sunday of close to 15 inches.

[CPA1dad]

We allowed our 17-year old daughter to drive to school today since we were only under an advisory this AM (Voorhees, NJ). It's a mess out there now (over 4" heavy snow measured on our picnic table so far).

[Stephanie]

If Mt. Holly NWS office was more on top of their forecast, I'm sure that there would've been alot more school delays or closings. I'm sure she'll be fine CPAdad!

[rick-g]

what are the specs for a blizzard?

Rick G

[JCT777]

Now let's see if any of the NWS offices actually issue a blizzard warning during the next day or so. I would think some places from N NJ to N Mass might need to.

[li-mike]

Generally winds mus be sustained above 35mph for more than 3 hours with snow present. Sometimes the windchil of -28 Degrees or below is thrown in as a criteria also but not normall. For those wind chills you need an actual temp of about 20 degrees.

Mike

[JCT777]

I don't think they use the wind chill at this point when issuing Blizzard warnings. The only issue I see is whether the winds will be strong enough.

[li-mike]

Forgot the 1/4 Mile visibility requirements. I am not worried about the winds at 35mph per se (At least over Ern LI) I am just worried that it comes in at that strength after the snow event as the storm departs.

Mike

[Guest]

Here is the 1-2 pitch from the GFS to DT....

swing and LONG drive deep DEEP center field ..... into the rafter above the upper deck....

he crushed it... DT buried it.... Phillies win the series phillies win the series...

( fancy way of told ya they would). from 1-2 to 2-4 to 5-7 to BLIZZARD WARNING!! all within 18 hrs

GOOD CALL nwsfo OKX.

[cjh034]

Nice call DT. Great job.