Check Out the SSM/I Microwave Imagery

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:02 pm

85H imagery shows a very well defined mid-level center but it's difficlut to find a well-defined surface center in 37H imagery...check out this comparison from the 2317Z SSM/I pass. Because the links at NRL are so long...I created a new page to show the difference:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/odette.htm

The system may not be very well lined up in the vertical...

MW

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:07 pm

In other words Mike not the best organized system right now and the window of oportunity to strengen is closing.

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:10 pm

It's very well organized in the mid-levels but doesn't look as impressive at the surface....at least from what I can read from this SSMI pass and the last few hours of satellite imagery.

However...for December...it's really well organized. LOL.

MW

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:14 pm

MWatkins wrote:It's very well organized in the mid-levels but doesn't look as impressive at the surface....at least from what I can read from this SSMI pass and the last few hours of satellite imagery.

However...for December...it's really well organized. LOL.

MW

Agreed that for being december this looks more impressive than other TD's and TS like TD#6,Grace,Henri for example in the heart of the season.

*StOrmsPr* · #5 Postby ***StOrmsPr*** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:22 pm

hey mike whats your thinking on the future track??

#6 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:39 pm

I think the track will end up to the right of the most recent official forecast and probably end up putting the center over the western side of hispanola rather than going between the big rock and Cuba. Unfortunately...that spells a nasty rain and flood event for friends there...and the western side of your island could see some rain as well.

I would put the center at 20N 72W in 40 hours or so...and by then it should start to pick up some speed.

The GFS is close to the official forecast and is slower in kicking the storm out of the caribbean...and out of respect for the model...I'm not leaning even further east with the track. Remember Lenny a few years ago...all of the models wanted to turn it to a more northerly track and it stayed to the right of all of the guidance. Considering the initial motion is further east than before (55)...a left turn is going to have to happen very quickly for Odette to cut between Cuba and hispanola instead of going right over Hispanola.

MW

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:42 pm

And if that happens Puerto Rico may see more rain than expected because it would be a bit more closer and we dont want another rain event.

Derek Ortt · #8 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 9:04 pm

Unless my eyes are deceiving me (which they may be after spending the last 6 weeks doing nothing but SSMI data analysis in MATLAB), that center looks to be stacked. The SSMI center appears to be near the center that is being used for the initial position

#9 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 9:35 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Unless my eyes are deceiving me (which they may be after spending the last 6 weeks doing nothing but SSMI data analysis in MATLAB), that center looks to be stacked. The SSMI center appears to be near the center that is being used for the initial position

The 85H center is very impressive looking...no squabble there...and a better defined low center may be down there...but it isn't clear in the 37H imagery from 2317.

Actually...betcha $ they pretty much used the 85H fix interpolated a couple of hours for the initial position at 00Z. But it would be nice to see better curvature and or a better-defined blue spot in the 37H imagery. Conventional IR4 shows a pretty good burst near/over the 85H fix...so who knows?

I just wonder if the surface feature is broader. We'll find out about 7AM tomorrow.

MW

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 10:23 pm

I agree it's not well-defined, but it sure is better defined than non tropical storm Grace. Glad to see the NHC is coming to its senses and slowing the forward speed way down. First track had it well north of the DR at 21Z Friday - no way! There's not much chance Odette could deviate left of the current forecast track. So if the track is off, then a track farther east is more likely.

Still, Puerto Rico will probably miss out on anything but an isolated thunderstorm.

One other thing, the recon schedule may be for a 12Z departure (7am EST), but it's not going to be in the storm until around 18Z. So we won't have the full recon report until around 21Z (4pm EST) tomorrow.

#11 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Dec 04, 2003 11:16 pm

I don't think the next fix is at 18Z. The POTD from today has Flight one making fixes at 12Z and 18Z tomorrow:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... OUS42.KNHC

Taking off at 0630z Friday.

MW

#12 Postby **MWatkins** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:55 am

Just a quick SSMI update...the most recent pass missed, but the one from earlier still showed a good mid-level center...but not as tight as yesterday (see long link at bottom).

Interesting that recon reported that there wasn't much spiral to the radar presentation...which would lend some support to a good MLC and a less-defined surface circulation (but still obviously closed). Also, although an impressive QSCAT for sure...looks like (at least at 10Z this morning) there may be something amiss in the SE quad...although those are rain contaminated barbs.

Still...have to admit the system is very well organized overall.

QSCAT:

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/storm_at_ima ... _at_0.html

SSMI:

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_display. ... C_SCALE=20%&STYLE=frames&ACTIVES=03-ATL-20L.ODETTE,03-SHEM-90S.INVEST,03-SHEM-91S.INVEST,03-SHEM-99P.INVEST,

MW

Check Out the SSM/I Microwave Imagery

Check Out the SSM/I Microwave Imagery

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