Weather forecast for central NC

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Suncat
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Weather forecast for central NC

#1 Postby Suncat » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:22 pm

Here's the current forecast from the NWS, Raleigh, NC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2003

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-076>078-030900-
ALAMANCE NC-CHATHAM NC-DAVIDSON NC-DURHAM NC-EDGECOMBE NC-FORSYTH NC-
FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-HALIFAX NC-HARNETT NC-
JOHNSTON NC-LEE NC-NASH NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-RANDOLPH NC-VANCE NC-
WAKE NC-WARREN NC-WAYNE NC-WILSON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEBORO...BURLINGTON...CARY...
CHAPEL HILL...CREEDMOOR...DURHAM...GOLDSBORO...GRAHAM...GREENSBORO...
HALIFAX...HENDERSON...HIGH POINT...HILLSBOROUGH...LEXINGTON...
LILLINGTON...LOUISBURG...MOUNT OLIVE...NASHVILLE...OXFORD...
PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...RANDLEMAN...ROANOKE RAPIDS...ROCKY MOUNT...
ROXBORO...SANFORD...SILER CITY...SMITHFIELD...TARBORO...
WARRENTON AND WINSTON-SALEM
415 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2003

...LIGHT WINTERY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST... AND TRACK NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA TO BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. IF ANY FLURRIES WERE TO OCCUR... NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT... AND THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR. IN ANY CASE... NO MAJOR WINTERY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. PEOPLE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATESTINFORMATION AND FORECASTS.
$$

GIH/WSS


Rats! Just a dusting!! :(

Suncat
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:34 pm

Hold that thought for now ... timing issues and the exactly where things come together are key, and outside of the EURO, the models are jumping off buildings without parachutes ... this situation is interesting ...

SF
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#3 Postby Suncat » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:56 pm

You are right, Stormsfury. Sort of reminds me of the situation that existed last year about this time before we got one heck of an ice storm. First it looked like something was going to happen, then it didn't then it did. Nothing was certain until about 24 hours out...and even then there was some doubt.

I hope we don't see another ice storm like that this year...but the power transformers sure did look pretty as they blew up in the pitch darkness :wink:

Suncat
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#4 Postby HeartofNC » Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:38 pm

yep, they sure did! all the blue flashes, then . . .

BLACK! :eek:

(make sure ya got bread and milk anyway! ;)


LOL
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#5 Postby HeartofNC » Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:45 pm

WFO RAH Text Data
Data updated Wed Dec 3 18:20:18 GMT 2003


FXUS62 KRAH 031820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST WED DEC 3 2003

TONIGHT THROUGH THU: ETA HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TIMING AND THERMAL STRUCTURE. PLAN TO BEGIN PRECIP CHANCES AT
11Z THEN INCREASE THEM TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAM
SUPPORTS A BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
MIXED WITH RAIN... TRANSITIONING TO A BRIEF MIX OF NUISANCE FREEZING
RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET (WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON TRAVEL GIVEN THE
FAIRLY WARM SURFACE TEMPS)... BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS AND THE FACT THAT
THE PARENT HIGH IS NOT GOING TO BE TAPPING INTO ANY DRIER AIR...
DON'T ANTICIPATE A LONG LIVED FROZEN/FREEZING EVENT. WILL TAPER OFF
PRECIP TO JUST A CHANCE LATE AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABATES AND THE
MID LEVELS DRY OUT.



.RAH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PERSON/FORSYTH/GUILFORD/ALAMANCE/
DAVIDSON/RANDOLPH THU MORNING.
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jpp5862

#6 Postby jpp5862 » Wed Dec 03, 2003 6:53 pm

Well I stand corrected. Looks like we will get some wintry precip after all. The Charlotte metro area is supposed to get sleet and freezing rain, not as damaging as last year, but probably enough to cause some problems.

It definitely looks to be worse north and west of here.
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#7 Postby NCWeatherChic » Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:28 pm

Yeah, the power transformers...looked like 4th of July in the winter, didn't it? I had power the entire time and usually it is the other way around. Usually Raleigh has power and I have none for days. I gave so much wood to people to keep warm..wheewww That's why I have gas logs..just in case. My husband uses wood in his "dog house" as he calls it. LOL
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#8 Postby wxid » Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:37 pm

I hear they are out trimming trees tonight to prep for this in NC? Great idea! Last year was a sh*tty mess!
Wxid
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#9 Postby SunDog » Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:03 pm

We have not had an ice storm here in the WNC mountains in a very long time. Tree limbs will be every where!
I dont care how much it ices or rains....I just hope we dont lose our power here at the house.

I expect the first snowflake at around midnight, maybe sooner. It should turn to rain around mid morning, if the surface temp gets to the projected high of 33. If it stays all ice, we are so screwd here.
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#10 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:56 pm

Everyone stay safe tomorrow out on the roads and watch out for falling limbs if the ice gets bad.
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#11 Postby HeartofNC » Thu Dec 04, 2003 12:16 pm

SunDog - I hope the earth stays warm so you don't get ice, it's the most awful thing!
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#12 Postby SunDog » Thu Dec 04, 2003 12:36 pm

Well I awoke this morning to 2+ inches on the ground.
Currently the temp is 31 in downtown A-Ville, but the ground temp is warmer. So anything that falls is just water.
Hopefully well see more snow Friday night and Sat.
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