Has the 18z GFS lost its mind?

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 6:58 pm

I mean, really? ... I mean I like it from a standpoint that the 18z GFS implies that I WOULD get some snow, but do I really buy it? ... Not ... yet ... anyway ... As soon as I check out the rest of the model guidance, I'll check back then ...

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 7:06 pm

Well i for one certainly think it has. ETA right now i think is handling this best along with the Euro and EC.................Would wait a bit longer before i start believing in the gfs.

#3 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 9:53 pm

I mean, really? ... I mean I like it from a standpoint that the 18z GFS implies that I WOULD get some snow, but do I really buy it? ... Not ... yet ... anyway ... As soon as I check out the rest of the model guidance, I'll check back then ...

I don/t have alot of time on my hands tonight...but i will say that IMO the ETA and the EC have the best handle on the system...I expect it will be another 2 to 4 runs before the GFS catches on. The EC has also trended stronger and colder. brings the system to 993mb just northeast of the benchmark on SUN.

We/ll have to see...but right now i DO see this as potentially a major event for the big cities as well as the inland sections (BTW...LOOK OUT if you are in or close to the following locations...HGR...BFD...UNV...RDG...ABE... MDT...AVP...BGM...BDL... ALB...PSF) it/s my contention that there areas have the best chance (as of right now) to see in excess of 12" from this system.

breeze · #4 Postby **breeze** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:00 pm

End of the week looks to be interesting, indeed!
Let's keep a watch and see, for sure!

Colin · #5 Postby **Colin** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:07 pm

Wow...thanks for the update RNS!!!!

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:08 pm

New ETA out to 60 hrs, and the placement looks a LOT further north with the 500 mb low (closer to the EC) but also seems to be scouring the wedge WAY TOO QUICKLY ... IMHO, a terrible underestimation, especially with a 50/50 low showing up and Greenland blocking ...

Has the 850mb low at 60hr over OH, and the 500mb low hasn't closed off yet ...

SF

#7 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:17 pm

New ETA out to 60 hrs, and the placement looks a LOT further north with the 500 mb low (closer to the EC) but also seems to be scouring the wedge WAY TOO QUICKLY ... IMHO, a terrible underestimation, especially with a 50/50 low showing up and Greenland blocking ...

Has the 850mb low at 60hr over OH, and the 500mb low hasn't closed off yet ...

SF

Classic ETA warm bias...

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:30 pm

And much more progressive ... Outside of the general consistency of the EURO, the other models are smoking weed ...

#9 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:44 pm

the ETA IMO feeds back too much heat and develops the system too close to the coast...not to mention has no idea what to do with the high to the north...and sends tremendous amounts of WAA northward where the cold wedge should be...

I like a blend of the ETA and EC right now.

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:58 pm

Agreed on the blend of the ETA/EC ... though, from a weird standpoint, the EC is an outlier compared to the GFS ensembles, UKMET, CMC, NOGAPS ... very strange ... 00z GFS rolling in and looks like it still somewhat keeps a tropical influence but shows in the short term, a bit of wedging through 30 hours ... and looks like its further north with the 500mb low as well through 60 hours...

Hmmm, 500mb low still quite far south at 84 hours on the 00z GFS...

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:05 pm

AND not to mention, the 00z GFS is locking in a 1036mb HIGH in Eastern Canada ...

#12 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:10 pm

given the skill and run-to-run consistenty of the EC and the trend the ETA has begun to get going i am going to take that at face value before i do the GFS or its Ensembels...the CMC and Nogaps...all of which have had problems in the MR

HuffWx · #13 Postby **HuffWx** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:11 pm

0z not that far off so far...thought I just worked 14 hours and cant see straight,

Huff

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:14 pm

RNS wrote:given the skill and run-to-run consistenty of the EC and the trend the ETA has begun to get going i am going to take that at face value before i do the GFS or its Ensembels...the CMC and Nogaps...all of which have had problems in the MR

Remains a difficult forecasting nightmare indeed ...

The 00z GFS still shows a tropical connection, as well as the 00z CMC ... (not really surprised by this) ... the EC seems to be the most sensible solution right now, and the ETA is trending that way ...

I'm still inclined to think that we're still looking at a Miller B type scenario low jumping to the coast ... and if I were to make a first call, I believe the 500mb low ends up crossing over NC ... with secondary surface development between offshore of CHS/ILM ...

SF

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:17 pm

GSP and CHS still convinced of strong CAD for Thursday/Friday ... as am I, and again, I believe that the models are too quick to scour out the wedge ...

Hmmm, Also 00z GFS implies some light snow in South Carolina with the cutoff but draws in warm air off the ATL into the MID-ATL/NE as the system cutoffs and loses its cold air tap ... Hmmm ...

SF

#16 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:20 pm

I couldin/t agree more...the 0Z GFS solution is just rediculous...you arent going to get that kind of drawn out surface low with the main center out over the ocean when the h5 low back over land.

#17 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:22 pm

bottom line the GFS H5 field is completely dissimilar to the surface progs...

Stormsfury · #18 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:23 pm

RNS wrote:I couldin/t agree more...the 0Z GFS solution is just rediculous...you arent going to get that kind of drawn out surface low with the main center out over the ocean when the h5 low back over land.

Yep, that's the tropical feature way out there ... watching the 00z GFS model animation, it latches onto the tropical connection at 850mb, but then later at the surface, it kicks the system ENE while the main low along the coast turns up NE and warms (oceanic influence) ...

Ok, no more on this run ... I'm going to bed ...

SF

#19 Postby **RNS** » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:26 pm

Stormsfury wrote:GSP and CHS still convinced of strong CAD for Thursday/Friday ... as am I, and again, I believe that the models are too quick to scour out the wedge ...

Hmmm, Also 00z GFS implies some light snow in South Carolina with the cutoff but draws in warm air off the ATL into the MID-ATL/NE as the system cutoffs and loses its cold air tap ... Hmmm ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108m.gif

SF

the models which dig the H5 low the furthest south will develop the TC connection (GGEM/GFS)...those such as the EC and ETA and early MM5 which keep it to the north will be more consistent as they don/t introduce that possibility...

my take on the TC situation is that some heat energy and moisture is transported northward but the full phase does NOT take place.

weatherlover427 · #20 Postby **weatherlover427** » Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:23 am

What was that 540 line I saw into North Florida?!?! :o :o Sure is way far south for only being the first week of December...

Has the 18z GFS lost its mind?

Has the 18z GFS lost its mind?

Who is online