Possible Nor-Eastern this weekend.......SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Colin]

agreed

[Anonymous]

The trend is toward colder and toward more wintry weather, and as I always say..........................

The Trend is your friend!!!


Come ON, SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


-SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!

[Colin]

Well ya never know

[paradoxsixnine]

so I'm in western NC....wishing and wishing for snow, ice (yeah right), SOMETHING besides just COLD weather (our forecast this week is for HIGHS in the low to mid 40's, for God's sake).

Does this high pressure hate us, or something? What are the chances--WHEN are the chances that we'll get to see some white stuff???? Yeah, yeah, I know the NC mountains will be seeing the stuff later this week, but GOD!!!

**sigh** I just want some snow down here...

[WEATHER53]

We will see when all is done but this would be a big event if we had the following.
1.Non zonal flow
2.Sub tropic jet
3.Trough
None of these are in existence and the cold air is not plunging in such a way to kick up spin around the Gulf, the cold will set up nicely for Pennsylvania and north of that but you have to have a strong and lingering storm to begin with and in this pattern I do not see that and this event is not substantive of itself to bring about what is being discussed.

12/2 11am Update
We still do not see any big storm. All 3 of the above reasons still remain in play, it even looks like the fantasy Carribean situation is already solving itself by the Carribean situation disintegrating down there. It will be colder than some folks thought, around 40 for DCA on Fri/Sat, but that well may just supress anything to about southern PA and points south. There may be some mountain location somewhere that gets 6" but this is a light to at most moderate event, I doubt DCA gets more than 0.50 liquid equivalent, may be some wet snow mixed in but this is a showery event and not some classic, closed low nor'easter, and it will be out to sea and not up the coast.

[ninmaven]

Hello everyone. This is my first 'real' post. In another weather group I read, the forecasters have been drawing comparisons between this upcoming event and the Nor'easter of Dec. 1992 (I think the dates were 11-12th). I lived in Brooklyn, NY at the time (I'm in Central NJ now), and it was easily the strongest, sustained-length storm (meaning other than short intense thunderstorms) that I have ever experienced. The wind was stronger than with any brush of a hurricane that I remember from the 60's through the 90s, and a home at Sea Gate in Coney Island, fell into the ocean due to erosion.

Does anyone here see any possibility of this weekend's storm becoming that strong? If it is similiar, this would mean that the big Northeast cities and the immediate coast will have rain while the more inland and Northern areas will have snow.

*~Loretta~*

[HuffWx]

jct...you are VERY catious about this...Climo makes sense, but look at those mods...with 2days of consistent runs!

Huff

[JCT777]

Huff - when I see a 3rd day of consistent runs, I may become convinced. Also, it would be nice to see LC start to change his tune as well. In the meantime, I am thinking this will be a moderate rain event in my area that *COULD* begin and/or end as wet snow.

[Colin]

Now what are you thinking John??

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-031000-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-
CAPE MAY NJ-CARBON PA-CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-
DELAWARE BEACHES DE-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-
INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-LEHIGH PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
MONROE PA-MONTGOMERY PA-MORRIS NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHAMPTON PA-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
SALEM NJ-SOMERSET NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SUSSEX NJ-TALBOT MD-
WARREN NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLENTOWN...ATLANTIC CITY...BETHLEHEM...
CAMDEN...DOVER...NEW BRUNSWICK...NEWARK...PERTH AMBOY...
PHILADELPHIA...READING...TRENTON...VINELAND AND WILMINGTON
300 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2003


...THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...AND DELAWARE...

A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM...OR WHAT MAY BE A COUPLE OF STORMS...IS
TAKING SHAPE FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AREA. THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OVER
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD SNOW OR OCCURRING AS
MOSTLY SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA.

AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEAR THE AREA OR
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVERHEAD...MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
INTO THE WEEKEND. WINTRY WEATHER MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF
THIS MATERIALIZES...THERE IS A THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE
STRONG NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON.

A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS PROVIDING ADVANCE NOTICE OF THIS POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE COMPUTER S AND IN EXACTLY HOW
THIS SITUATION WILL PLAY OUT AT THIS TIME...AREA RESIDENTS AND
TRAVELERS TO THE REGION ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES AS THE EVENT
GETS CLOSER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES.

$$

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWER CASE LETTERS).




$$

[JCT777]

Colin - What you posted above and the latest forecast/statement from the NWS (see my post in Jeb's thread about VA temps being colder than forecast here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=19987 ) all sound encouraging for snow in my area late this week and over the weekend. However, I am being very pessimistic due to the factors stormchaser16 discussed, and the fact that LC and Weather53 do not see a major snow event.

[Colin]

LOL ... things are coming together nicely. All we need to see now if the airmass has cold temps in the lower levels, once it comes in.

[Anonymous]

I live in central New Jersey, not that close to the ocean, on the boarder of Monmouth County. Are we going to get some sizeable snow here.

[Colin]

Right now 1evans, I doubt it...but if the colder trends continue, you may get some decent snow...so don't lose hope!

[Anonymous]

Current conditions here in Woodbridge VA, clear as a bell, NNW winds 13 G 25, temps falling through the mid 30s, dewpoint stands at 8 degrees and the ambient temp is 36 and falling. Way things look we may have highs only around 34 tomorrow.


Brrrrrrrrrrrrr is all I can say!!!!! Watch out MD, DE, PA, NY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You are gonna get clobbered!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey, Mother Nature!!!! Quit playing around!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BRING IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-SnowBlitzJEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SunDog]

GFS has changed quite a bit from this mornings run to this evenings.

The upper level low is now not going to form until late saturaday night. That is the 2nd low that I am referring to.

Midnight Friday has the southern appalachains getting snow showers. Snow line appears to be just West of Charlotte through Boone, Central VA (Fredericksburg) and N. Eastward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084m.gif

saturaday night the low continues to deepen and brings more snow to the Southern Apps. especially Southern WV. The rain/snow line gradually moves eastward, closer to the big east coast cities.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_102m.gif

On Sunday morning the low blows up off the coast of NC. Bringing snow to the area of Boone and northward. The 540 line retreats to the north. This is where the forecast will be very tricky to call.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_114m.gif

The cold air will be damning up against the mountains of NC, possibly preventing upper levels to sustain the snow. The central and eastern part of the state will most likely receive more snow than the mountains south of Boone.

It is still very early and the models are changing every run. Hopefully it will work out for the best for everyone.

[Anonymous]

I hope everyone gets their snow! If I don't get it, that'll be okay, so long as other folks get it in feet!!!

Enjoy that snow, those of you who do get it!!!!!



-SnowBlitzJEB

[WEATHER53]

We will see when all is done but this would be a big event if we had the following.
1.Non zonal flow
2.Sub tropic jet
3.Trough
None of these are in existence and the cold air is not plunging in such a way to kick up spin around the Gulf, the cold will set up nicely for Pennsylvania and north of that but you have to have a strong and lingering storm to begin with and in this pattern I do not see that and this event is not substantive of itself to bring about what is being discussed.

12/2 11am Update
We still do not see any big storm. All 3 of the above reasons still remain in play, it even looks like the fantasy Carribean situation is already solving itself by the Carribean situation disintegrating down there. It will be colder than some folks thought, around 40 for DCA on Fri/Sat, but that well may just supress anything to about southern PA and points south. There may be some mountain location somewhere that gets 6" but this is a light to at most moderate event, I doubt DCA gets more than 0.50 liquid equivalent, may be some wet snow mixed in but this is a showery event and not some classic, closed low nor'easter, and it will be out to sea and not up the coast.

12/3 11am update
No real changes. DCA get a chilly rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in, IAD may get up to 2" wet mess on grass, some mountian area up to 6", this is not the profile for 90% of the storms that give DC area big snows, last year was the Year of The Snow where it snowed even when it did not want to, kinda the 10 percenter year, and it is not last year this year.

[JCT777]

Agree W53 that this does not look like a good setup for snow in the big cities (DC through NYC). In fact, the model trend to suppress is making it look as though much of the precipitation will not get north of the Mason/Dixon line.

[Lisa]

If the precip stays south of the Mason/Dixon line---are you saying that we here in Charleston/Huntington WV should get prepared? Let me know---I'd like to get a head start on the milk and bread!!!

[JCT777]

I am not sure how much snow WV is going to get, but it can't hurt to make sure you have some bread and milk.