EURO PAINTS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:22 pm

850 temps below zero--winds dont really bring the warm ocean air inland...

Suburbs of big cities/Mountains could get buried

cities could see a period of snow/then a prolonged period of Mixed Precip....

We really need to start watching this now for a major event.

Cheesy_Poofs · #2 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:25 pm

SWEEEEEET! Can I please have a link to the EURO model?

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:27 pm

Where should I start? Plymouth State offers the make your own map, while UNISYS, The College of Dupage, and Texas A & M (although, they never seem to have any maps at all available) ... and of course, Wright-Weather, but you have to subscribe for the model data (which is quite sweet for the money - I got a preview during the PDS this past February when free access was allowed) ...

But try this ... every quick link to the ECMWF model maps from Plymouth State College for the US ... easy for people that do not know how to make the proper parameters for the maps ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/ECMWF.html

Cheesy_Poofs · #4 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:31 pm

Thanks stormsfury! I'm just a beggener, so I tried to look at the model as best as I could... :wink:

So this means that the threat of a Significant East Coast snow storm just went up a lot?

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:38 pm

Cheesy_Poofs wrote:Thanks stormsfury! I'm just a beggener, so I tried to look at the model as best as I could... So this means that the threat of a Significant East Coast snow storm just went up a lot?

Tonight's EURO implies a winter storm event .. although the details are still a little touch and go ... but the bottom line is that the potential is there from the overall 500mb pattern ...

On day 4, the EURO, although slightly off, correctly implies a Miller B type scenario with the transferrance of energy from west of the Appalachians to the coast (although, IMHO, it'll be slightly further offshore where the best thermal gradient lies) ... Cold air damming signatures are always underestimated (underprogged) in the MR (shallow low-level cold air is almost always missed). I'm still thinking the colder air continues to trend further south and IMHO, in Western NC ... some frozen to possible changeover and then to snow in the wraparound .. I'm not sold on a coastal snowstorm, as is many others since easterly winds would likely bring warmer air at least 25-50 miles inland, but just beyond, look out ... crazy setup, actually, but looking more and more like a coastal storm is a brewing ...

There's still a lot of details to be resolved and that includes the following...

1) The timing of the cutoff
2) Just how much cold air damming occurs
3) HP placement to the north ... does it hold strong (like I think it will) or just gets shoved out of the way (not likely due to the NEG NAO setting up)
4) How much tropical energy/moisture (from the tropical disturbance) gets involved.

A lot of variables ... but still a winter storm event looks more and more like a go ...

SF

Playballgt14 · #6 Postby **Playballgt14** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:42 pm

any snow for NE ohio outa this one??

TNSnowbunny · #7 Postby **TNSnowbunny** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:49 pm

I don't know if I should get excited or not about this storm! I have a feeling I'm just gonna get rain

Time will tell, I suppose

Stormsfury · #8 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:52 pm

Playballgt14 wrote:any snow for NE ohio outa this one??

NE Ohio may be too far north for anything substantial IMHO at this time ...

donsutherland1 · #9 Postby **donsutherland1** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:53 pm

Latest ECMWF for the December 5-7 period:

<img src=http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=133539>

Maximum 850 mb temperatures:

Albany: -8C
Boston: -6C
NYC: -2C
Philadelphia: -2C
Washington, DC: -1C

From all the model runs, I believe the ECMWF continues to have the best handle on the upcoming system.

All said, it increasingly looks as if there will be frozen precipitation even in the big cities--not necessarily accumulating snow, though some snow is a possibility, but mixed precipitation and sleet. I'm still not yet committed to abandoning the initial idea of a mainly rain event for the big cities, but the latest run of the ECMWF suggests that the situation bears some watching.

Well inland, there appears to be increasing potential for a significant snowfall.

Cheesy_Poofs · #10 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:55 pm

One last Question: How do things look for Central Maryland right now??

#11 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 9:58 pm

The new 12z run of the EC this evening develops what would be a major winter storm for the Middle atlantic and northeast...

ECMWF 500 hPa heights and surface pressure days 1-6:

day 1:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

day 2:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

day 3:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

day 4:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

day 5:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

day 6:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

500mb Absolute vorticity:

day 1:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

day 2:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

day 3:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

day 4:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

day 5:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

day 6:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

we notice (on day 3) some critical things here... first note the strong H5 low pressure center in the Gulf of AK with the amplifying PNA ridge in western part of the country. we can also see a the presence of a 50/50 low. the amplifying PNA ridge would cause the PJ s/w to dig further and catch the STJ s/w as it comes out into the mississippi valley.

as we move onto day 4...(96hrs)...the PJ s/w splits as one piece of energy remains up in canada and the other piece of energy digs into the midwest and phases with the STJ s/w forming a closed H5 low over eastern missouri. By day 5 (Saturday)...we notice the closed H5 low is now located over western virginia and eastern west virginia.

surface high pressure forming over eastern quebec in the confluencein back of the 50/50 low...should set up a cold air damming situation east of the applachain mountains forcing the initial area of low pressure at the surface over KY to transfer energ to the coast (where the thermal gradient is the best). The EC may be underdone with regard to the strength of the system as the feedback between the colder land and very warm ocean would force a strengthening of the baroclinic gradient and deeper low pressure center. the EC has it at around 1001mb my thinking is that it would be between 985 and 990mb.

another Key here is that the EC develops a very strong LLVL (850mb) easterly jet:

850 hPa winds:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

850 hPa streamline analysis:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Notice the 50-60 kt speed maximum across eastern pennsylvania. this was a feature which helped transport significant amounts of atlantic moisture inland during the presidents day storm. All the while h85 temperatures remain supportive of frozen precipitation EVEN IN THE MAJOR CITIES:

850 hPa temperature:

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

QCWx · #12 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:00 pm

I'll be interested in seeing if the High to the north comes in stronger than predicted like it did so many times last year.

#13 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:02 pm

it most likely will...i domt think it will be as strong as the one which on presidents day but...the models normally have a problem with making those type of assessments in the medium range

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:03 pm

Ummm, 00z ETA looking colder ...

#15 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:04 pm

that was to be expected...now lets see if the GFS catches on

#16 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:05 pm

now lets see if the GFS catches on

ummm,,,,,thats asking too much...

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:10 pm

RNS wrote:that was to be expected...now lets see if the GFS catches on

ROTFLMAO!

YEAH RIGHT!!!

#18 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:11 pm

the GFS will catch on about 24 hours before the flakes start falling...lol

it did the exact same thing with the Jan 2000 event

Stormsfury · #19 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:14 pm

RNS wrote:the GFS will catch on about 24 hours before the flakes start falling...lol

it did the exact same thing with the Jan 2000 event

Yeah, that was one hell of an event ... RAH with 16.3" in 4 hours ... even Charleston, SC picked up an inch of sleet/snow/slush (2" here) ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... CSnow.html

SF

QCWx · #20 Postby **QCWx** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 10:34 pm

Yeah I think the original high on the PD storm was supposed to be what 1042? I believe it ended up 1045-1046 which saved my area a devastating ice storm.

EURO PAINTS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST

EURO PAINTS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST

Re: EURO PAINTS A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE EAST COAST

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