Possible mild Santa Ana wind event coming for southern Calif

[weatherlover427]

.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 47 TO 52. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 73 TO 78. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 48 TO 54. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 73 TO 81. VARIABLE WIND 10 MPH OR LESS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 47 TO 52. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
210 PM PST WED NOV 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BRINGING WARMER DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES...WEAKENING LATER FRIDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS DIMMING THE SUN FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.

OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAK BUT TURNING OFFSHORE FROM THE GREAT BASIN. BY THURSDAY MORNING A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER UTAH WITH FAIRLY STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENTS IN PLACE OVER SW CA. THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI AND THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS...ALLOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO DRIFT OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SAT AND SUN.

MAIN FCST CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WIND PRONE MTN AND VALLEY AREAS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. LOCAL WIND PROGRAM SHOWS ADVISORY WINDS BASED ON THE AVN AND NGM BUT NOT WITH THE ETA MODEL. WITH LITTLE THERMAL AND UPPER SUPPORT...OPTED NOT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT FEEL THAT GUSTS TO ADVISORY LEVELS MAY BE REACHED THROUGH AND BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND THROUGH SOME CANYONS IN THE SANTA ANA AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTNS. THIS WILL BE IN THE ZONES AS LOCAL WINDS. IF THE ETA MODEL COMES INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUN...ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY SHOULD BE REVISITED. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE MRF WANTS TO BRING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THROUGH SO WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW IN THE GRIDS.

[btangy]

Looks like a warm Thanksgiving weekend for all of Southern California. And it looks like the storm the GFS was forecasting earlier in the week for Fri and Saturday will be blocked by the ridge, so looks great for us.

[stormraiser]

Can you blow some of that warm weather this way? It's too early for it to be this cold, if you ask me.