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weeniepatrol wrote:It's looking grim. First time I've ever been genuinely bearish (started tracking in 2016).
zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/0nBvNZv.gif
We should see some decent warming with this round of NAO-.
cycloneye wrote: What do the members think about the sst analogs from Andy Hazelton?
@WeathermanAAA_
Contrary to the Pacific, the Atlantic's SST configuration appears exceptionally hostile for TC development this season.
Note the cold canary current showing up on both the standard SSTa and global mean removed SSTa plots. El Nino aside, this alone would suggest below average activity this year.
https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045953211513610527
@AndyHazelton
To this point, these are the top-10 SST analogs for the Canary Current region for this date:
>>> top10_rmse_canary
array([1989, 1994, 2015, 1986, 2009, 1985, 1990, 1992, 2002, 1991, 1993])
Even the non-Niño years in here were generally quiet, and the years where a solid El Niño did form (1994, 2009, 1991, 2015) were even more quiet. Those 4 years and maybe something like 1997 are the type of analogs I'd be looking at for Atlantic activity this year.
https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2045960121587769576
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:cycloneye wrote: What do the members think about the sst analogs from Andy Hazelton?
@WeathermanAAA_
Contrary to the Pacific, the Atlantic's SST configuration appears exceptionally hostile for TC development this season.
Note the cold canary current showing up on both the standard SSTa and global mean removed SSTa plots. El Nino aside, this alone would suggest below average activity this year.
https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/2045953211513610527
@AndyHazelton
To this point, these are the top-10 SST analogs for the Canary Current region for this date:
>>> top10_rmse_canary
array([1989, 1994, 2015, 1986, 2009, 1985, 1990, 1992, 2002, 1991, 1993])
Even the non-Niño years in here were generally quiet, and the years where a solid El Niño did form (1994, 2009, 1991, 2015) were even more quiet. Those 4 years and maybe something like 1997 are the type of analogs I'd be looking at for Atlantic activity this year.
https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2045960121587769576
Two of those years (1985 & 1989) were actually decently active relatively speaking (have to remember the 80s and early 90s were a generally dead period in the Atlantic) but the former featured a La Niña and the latter cool-neutral so they obviously can be discarded as viable analogs in this case.
I calculated the four Niño years he emphasized in particular and got an average tally of 8.75 NS/3.5 HU/1.5 MH, so it goes to show how lethal a strong Niño/cool MDR tandem can be on activity.
Consider this when you participate in the 2026 Storm2k Numbers Poll. 
cycloneye wrote:There is the change at MDR to more warmer waters in the past few days.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_eatl_1.png
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png
Category5Kaiju wrote:It's honestly kind of intriguing to see 2023's legacy. I remember back when I tracked that season; before the season began, there were folks who saw the ultra-warm Atlantic and said things along the lines of "depending on how this season turns out, especially if it ends up much more active than expected, then 2023 is going to become a heavily-referenced year for the idea that you can get a very active Atlantic season in spite of a top-tier El Nino."
With the number of instances in which 2023 has been brought up in wx discussions as of recent, that line of thinking has apparently turned out to be correct after all.
Back on topic, the CFS as Dorky has shown not only predicts a sustained warmup of the deep tropics going into the summer months but also has this for August's shear forecast (mind you, this general look has been like this the past many recent runs):
https://i.imgur.com/FhLFGAU.png
The Caribbean looks to have above-normal shear (as expected during a powerful El Nino episode), and there looks to be a notable TUTT just north of the MDR (another typical Nino effect). HOWEVER.....there looks to be decreased shear in the MDR, so this *could* potentially mean that if conditions permit otherwise, we could see at least some action in that region of the Atlantic around then as opposed to an absolute snoozefest.
Again, this is a long-range shear forecast that is subject to change (let alone on a day-to-day basis once August actually rolls around), but it is interesting to see how insistent the CFS has been about the idea that August could generally see some unusually below-average bulk shear in the MDR. Of course, once September and October roll around, the CFS does seem to think that the shear will only get worse in the deep tropics and Caribbean, so there's that as well.
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